Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Virginia Tech

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Hokies for their Saturday matchup, and who the statistical models favor:

Nov 4, 2023; Louisville, Kentucky, USA; Virginia Tech Hokies quarterback Kyron Drones (1) runs the ball against Louisville Cardinals linebacker Jaylin Alderman (24) during the second half at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium. Louisville defeated Virginia Tech 34-3. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images | Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (6-1, 3-1 ACC) is set to face Virginia Tech (3-5, 2-2 ACC) on Saturday, Nov. 1 at 3:00 p.m. EST at Lane Stadium in Louisville, Ky. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Hokies:

*Mobile users can scroll left and right on the tables below*

Rankings

	Virginia Tech	Louisville
AP/USAT	NR/NR	16th/17th
CFP	N/A	N/A
SOS	56th	50th
SOR	92nd	13th
SP+	84th	24th
FPI	69th	29th
Sagarin	72nd	25th
Kelley Ford	70th	29th
CFB Graphs	88th	20th

Offensive Statistics

	Virginia Tech	Louisville
Total Offense	79th (373.8)	50th (413.0)
Yards Per Play	77th (5.59)	38th (6.16)
Scoring Offense	83rd (25.4)	33rd (34.6)
Passing Yards	103rd (189.5)	31st (268.6)
Yards Per Completion	101st (10.75)	79th (11.26)
Rushing Yards	41st (184.3)	79th (144.4)
Yards Per Rush Attempt	33rd (4.96)	43rd (4.77)
First Downs Gained	56th (165)	90th (147)
3rd Down Con. %	46th (42.9%)	60th (41.1%)
4th Down Con. %	86th (50.0%)	52nd (60.0%)
Red Zone Con. %	64th (86.2%)	29th (90.9%)
Turnovers Lost	61st (9)	101st (12)
Interceptions Thrown	63rd (6)	63rd (6)
Fumbles Lost	41st (3)	110th (6)
Tackles For Loss Allowed	86th (5.63)	77th (5.43)
Sacks Allowed	111st (2.63)	91st (2.14)
Avg. Time of Possession	55th (30:30)	53rd (30:37)

Key: National Rank out of 136 FBS Teams (Value)

Defensive Statistics

	Virginia Tech	Louisville
Total Defense	70th (367.1)	14th (286.3)
Yards Allowed Per Play	103rd (5.92)	16th (4.55)
Scoring Defense	103rd (29.9)	44th (21.4)
Passing Yards Allowed	88th (231.3)	21st (181.0)
Rushing Yards Allowed	55th (135.9)	21st (105.3)
First Downs Allowed	91st (160)	6th (106)
3rd Down Def. %	101st (42.4%)	25th (33.3%)
4th Down Def. %	111st (66.7%)	22nd (40.0%)
Red Zone Def. %	132nd (100%)	44th (81.3%)
Turnovers Gained	121st (5)	6th (16)
Interceptions Caught	108th (3)	4th (12)
Fumbles Recovered	97th (2)	48th (4)
TFL Per Game	66th (5.5)	76th (5.3)
Sacks Per Game	60th (2.13)	46th (2.29)

Key: National Rank out of 136 FBS Teams (Value)

Special Teams Statistics

	Virginia Tech	Louisville
Net Punting	109th (37.42)	115th (37.03)
Avg. Kickoff Return	82nd (19.45)	17th (26.22)
Avg. Kickoff Return Def.	53rd (19.00)	42nd (18.25)
Avg. Punt Return	86th (7.62)	5th (19.12)
Avg. Punt Return Def.	130th (18.63)	7th (1.17)
Field Goal Attempts	14-17	13-16
PAT	19-19	25-26

Key: National Rank out of 136 FBS Teams (Value)

Predictions:

- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have a 73.6 percent chance to win against the Hokies. Louisville has an FPI rating of 9.8 (29th overall), whereas Virginia Tech has an FPI rating of -0.8 (69th overall)

- SP+ Prediction: Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have an 81.59 percent chance to take down the Hokies. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 14.0 (24th overall), whereas Virginia Tech has an SP+ rating of -3.8 (84th overall).

- Kelley Ford Prediction: Per the Kelley Ford ratings, the Cardinals have a 78 percent chance to defeat the Hokies. Louisville has a KFord rating of 11.7 (29th overall), whereas Virginia Tech has a KFord rating of -1.7 (70th overall)

- College Football Graphs Prediction: Per College Football Graph's EPA Margin metric, the Cardinals have an 74.2 percent chance to take down the Hokies. Louisville has an EPA Margin of 0.200 (20th overall), Virginia Tech has an EPA Margin rating of -0.081 (88th overall).

- Personal Prediction: Louisville 31, Virginia Tech 24.

(Photo of Kyron Drones: Jamie Rhodes - Imagn Images)

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