ESPN's Season Prediction for LSU is Shocking

The LSU Tigers have been constantly doubted since Lane Kiffin took over the program. Some people want to see Kiffin fail, and others think the expectations will be too high.

LSU is 3-1 to begin 2026 with wins over Clemson, Louisiana Tech, and No. 23 Texas A&M. Their lone loss was to No. 8 Ole Miss. So far, everything is still in front of Kiffin's team. Their goals are still attainable, and the Tigers have the roster to achieve those goals.

However, ESPN has its doubts.

A Shocking LSU Prediction

LSU quarterback Sam Leavitt. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

ESPN updated its 2026 College Football Power Index. It's a rating system that measures a team's true strength and uses it to forecast game and season outcomes.

They currently forecast LSU to finish 8-4. Here are some of the other percentages for LSU.

To win out: 4.1%
6-win Percentage: 98.4%
To win the SEC title: 4.5%
To make the College Football Playoff: 40.1%
To make the CFB Playoff National Championship: 7%
To win the CFB Playoff National Championship: 3.3%

These are shockingly low percentages for the Tigers. Assuming LSU defeats McNeese State this week, that would mean ESPN believes Kiffin's team will finish 4-3 in the final seven SEC games.

Why LSU Will Finish Better Than 8-4

LSU wide receiver Winston Watkins Jr. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

It's hard to imagine a team as talented as LSU losing three more games this season. The Tigers face a difficult schedule, but no SEC team has an easy conference schedule. It's possible ESPN doubts LSU's ability to overcome the multiple injuries they've suffered.

Whit Weeks, Trey'Dez Green, and Dashawn Spears suffered severe injuries, and the Tigers' depth is thinning. Kiffin will try to keep his team afloat while some of the players recover. If they can, LSU will be a CFP contender by the end of the regular season.

In the meantime, let's try to predict the remainder of the Tigers schedule.

vs. McNeese State: Win
at No. 24 Kentucky: Win
vs. No. 16 Mississippi State: Win
at Auburn: Win
vs. No. 7 Alabama: Win
vs. No. 1 Texas: Loss
at No. 17 Tennessee: Win
at Arkansas: Win

LSU gets a massive advantage by hosting Texas and Alabama. If they can split those two games, the Tigers should be in good shape. There could be a slip-up against Kentucky or Tennessee, but Kiffin's team already played in the toughest road environment imaginable.

They nearly defeated Ole Miss after a large first-half deficit and facing a hostile crowd. That should prepare LSU for the difficult road games ahead. 8-4 seems a bit far-fetched, but only time will tell who is right.

Sign up for our free newsletter and follow us on Facebook and X for the latest news.

Add us as a preferred source on Google