Will Miami Shoot Better Versus Indiana?
During the opening round of the 2023 NCAA Basketball Tournament, the Miami Hurricanes utilized their full-court press to make a late comeback and overcame Drake 63-56.
The Canes will need to provide a much improved shooting effort to defeat the next opponent, the Indiana Hoosiers. Miami’s porous shooting against Drake cannot happen in the second round.
Here are some of the ugly shooting numbers in reference to specific time stoppages or made buckets during the Drake game, before analyzing what Miami will face with Indiana, including detailed statistics.
First Half
8:48 - 3/17 for 17.6%
6:12 - 3/21 for 14.3%
3:55 - 5/25 for 20%
By halftime, Miami had raised its shooting percentage by hitting 2 of its last 5 shots to finish 7/30 for 23.3%.
Second Half
12:18 - 10/37 for 27%
10:34 - 13/41 for 31.7%
8:21 - 14/46 for 30.4%
4:29 - 15/52 for 28.8%
When Miami guard Nijel Pack connected on a jump shot at the 4:29 mark for Miami’s 15th made shot of the game, it did signal somewhat of an offensive turnaround.
While the Canes did not go crazy from the field and instead made most of their progress from the free throw line, a full-court press – that led to live-ball turnovers – allowed Miami to drive the basketball to the bucket during broken plays. It also helped to make Drake more passive overall, and Miami capitalized.
Miami went on a 16-1 run during the final 5:40 of the contest to knock off Drake. That’s incredible.
Think about how poorly the Hurricanes shot prior to that time in the game, yet finished plus-15 down the stretch?
For the game, Miami shot 17/56 for 30.4%. To win a game with that low of a field goal shooting percentage, no question the trapping defense of the Hurricanes played a major role. That’s not going to be enough moving forward.
For the #5 seeded Hurricanes in the second round, shooting anything in the remote vicinity of 30.4% will send Miami packing from the NCAA Tournament.
Trayce Jackson-Davisundefinedrejected 5 shots versus Kent State.
David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
A #4 seed, Indiana can score, so Miami will have to match shots. Having the services of one of the nation’s best overall players and shot blockers in Trayce Jackson-Davis will help the Hoosiers against the Canes as well. He's an All-American and All Hurricanes will profile Jackson-Davis in detail tomorrow.
For now, here are key defensive Indiana’s defensive statistics heading into one of the most interesting NCAA Tournament second round matchups .
(number in parenthesis denotes national ranking - statistics through March 16)
Field Goal Percentage Defense: 40.9 (39)
3-Point Field Goal Percentage Defense: 33.2% (142)
Points Per Game Allowed: 68.5 (125)
Blocked shots: 4.9 (15)
Defensive Rebounding: 26.7 (44)
Taking a close look at IU’s defensive numbers, it’s clear that getting the ball to the hoop will probably be harder than hitting shots behind the 3-point arc; Indiana has size in the paint to protect the rim.
For instance, Jackson-Davis is listed at 6-foot-9 and 245 pounds. He’s one of four big bodies that UM will face. The other three Hoosiers will not be easy to shoot over near the rim either.
There’s Race Thompson at 6-foot-8 and 235 pounds, Miller Kopp at 6-foot-7 and 215 pounds, and Malik Renau at 6-foot-9 and 235 pounds. That’s where this contest gets interesting.
Despite Miami’s overall shooting struggles, the 3-point shooting finished at 6/18 for 33.3%. That’s not ideal, yet not tragic either. Besides, Miami has been a good 3-point shooting team this season. No reason to go away from that trend during March Madness.
For the Canes to knock off the Hoosiers, sure, part of the plan will be making more shots inside the 3-point arc. That’s obvious as Miami just went through one of its worst 2-point shooting performances of the season.
More importantly, and probably easier, will be the Canes hitting shots from deep.
Miami has shot 36.7% (50) from 3-point range this year. When watching the game against the Hoosiers, keep track of how well the Hurricanes are knocking down triples. That might decide the final outcome.
From Indiana’s last five games, here’s how teams shot the ball from behind the arc.
Feb. 28, Iowa - 13/23 for 56.5%
March 5, Michigan - 9/26 for 34.6%
March 10, Maryland - 9/24 for 37.5%
March 11, Penn State - 8/23 for 34.8%
March 17, Kent State - 7/21 for 33.3%
The Iowa game should probably be considered an aberration. The Hawkeyes were on fire all game long and ran the Hoosiers out of their own gym, winning 90-68.
On the flip side, despite doing a good job versus PSU the second time that IU played them, that same matchup in Happy Valley earlier this season saw the Hoosiers get destroyed by the Nittany Lions because of a lack of 3-point defense. The home team connected on 18-31 shots from deep for 58.1%.
Make no mistake, for Miami to beat Indiana, its easiest path of resistance will be passing the basketball and looking for open shots from downtown.
That’s the method that both Iowa and PSU used, and each of them have an offense that revolves around guard play much the same way that Miami utilizes.
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