ESPN predicts Michigan basketball's fate in NCAA Tournament, facing UC San Diego in Round 1

Christine Tannous/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Despite winning the Big Ten Tournament over Wisconsin on Sunday, Michigan men's basketball drew a No. 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The maize and blue had the fourth-most Quad 1 wins of any team this season, going 12-7 in those games. Even though Michigan beat both Purdue and Wisconsin twice this season, the Badgers got a No. 3 seed and the Boilermakers received a No. 4 seed.

Michigan's gain for winning the Big Ten Tournament? Drawing No. 12 seed UC San Diego. The Tritons went 30-4 this season and own a 15-game winning streak. UC San Diego plays fantastic defense giving up 61.6 points per game -- sixth in the country -- and the Tritons force 15.9 turnovers per game -- eighth in the country. The Wolverines' Achilles Heel is turning the ball over. Michigan averages over 14 turnovers per game which is one of the worst averages in all of college basketball.

The Wolverines are just a small favorite in the game, but according to ESPN's Jeff Borzello, he doesn't see Michigan getting past the first round. Borzello predicts UC San Diego to beat the Wolverines on Thursday night, 70-68.

He has the Tritons then beating Texas A&M in the next round before falling to Auburn in the Sweet 16. In Michigan's region, the South Region, he has the Tigers beating Michigan State to get into the Final Four.

UC San Dieg
Orlando Ramirez-Imagn Images

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Trent Knoop
TRENT KNOOP

Trent began writing and covering Michigan athletics back in 2020. He became a credentialed member of the media in 2021. Trent began writing with Sports Illustrated in 2023 and became the Managing Editor for Michigan Wolverines On SI during the 2025 football season. Trent also serves as the Publisher of Baylor Bears on SI. His other bylines have appeared on Maryland on SI, Wisconsin on SI, and across the USA TODAY Sports network. Trent’s love of sports and being able to tell stories to fans is what made him get into writing.

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