Here's How Michigan Can Earn the Top Overall Seed in the NCAA Tournament

Despite Duke loss, there is still a path for the Wolverines to earn the No. 1 overall seed in March Madness

Mar 8, 2026; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Michigan Wolverines forward Morez Johnson Jr. (21) is defended by Michigan State Spartans forward Jaxon Kohler (0) in the first half at Crisler Center. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images | Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

The Michigan Wolverines just capped off an historic 29-2 basketball season with a victory over Michigan State in the regular season finale this past Sunday at Crisler Center in Ann Arbor.

Now, the Wolverines turn their focus to postseason play—first with the Big Ten Tournament in Chicago this weekend, then the NCAA Tournament a week later.

Although Dusty May's team is essentially a shoe-in to earn a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, the top overall seed is still up for grabs.

Despite losing to Duke last month in an out-of-conference game, there is still a path for Michigan to earn the top overall seed for the tournament.

Here's how the Wolverines can make that happen.

Michigan forward Yaxel Lendeborg (23) hugs forward Will Tschetter (42) after a play against Michigan State during the second half at Crisler Center in Ann Arbor on Sunday, March 8, 2026. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

How Michigan can pass Duke for the No. 1 seed

As things stand right now, the Blue Devils are the clear top seed overall in the NCAA Tournament, with Michigan very likely as the No. 2 overall seed.

Not only does Duke have the head-to-head win over the Wolverines, but the Blue Devils are also the No. 1 team in both the KenPom and NET rankings while Michigan sits at No. 2 in both.

However, Michigan isn't far off from Duke from a resume standpoint in the sense that the Wolverines at 14-2 in Quad 1 games compared to Duke's 15-2 record.

If the Wolverines were to win all three games in the Big Ten Tournament, Michigan would very likely be able to grab three more Quad 1 victories unless there are massive upsets that take place in Chicago over the weekend that would prevent Michigan from playing three top-50 teams.

Michigan guard Nimari Burnett (4) dribbles against Michigan State forward Jordan Scott (6) during the second half at Crisler Center in Ann Arbor on Sunday, March 8, 2026. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Duke, on the other hand, would have an opportunity for two more Quad 1 victories if theACC Tournament goes as expected (and we know games going as expected isn't always a thing in March).

With that being the case, the Wolverines likely need Duke to lose no later than the semifinals against either North Carolina or Clemson, while Michigan would need to win all three this weekend and claim a second-straight Big Ten Tournament title.

If Michigan were to win all three this weekend and Duke bows out before the final, that would give the Wolverines two more Quad 1 wins than the Blue Devils and it may be just enough to propel them to No. 1 in the metrics.

Even at that point, though, it will be splitting hairs and the selection committee could very well bring the Duke head-to-head victory into play and grant them the top seed based on that.

Regardless, it will be interesting to see how it all plays out and how both teams can respond long term to key injuries, which includes Michigan point guard L.J. Cason being out for the season with a torn ACL and Duke point guard Caleb Foster fracturing his foot, although he hasn't been ruled out for the postseason.

Duke center Patrick Ngongba II will miss the ACC Tournament due to foot soreness with the expecation he will be ready for the following weekend, which makes the Blue Devils' task this weekend that much more challenging.