The Cinderella Recipes for Taking Down the Best Teams in Men’s College Basketball

With some conference tournaments underway and others just about to start, it’s time for bracket builders across the country to sharpen their skills and prepare to spot some potential Cinderellas for the Big Dance.

But while much of the focus is always placed on the teams that can step into the Cinderella role, it takes two to tango—if an underdog is going to make a run in the tournament, it means they’re going to take down a favorite.

For that reason, we are examining eight of the top teams in college basketball and investigating not their impressive wins, but their few losses, with hopes of finding a metric that hopeful underdogs might look to exploit in their upset efforts.

Aside from Miami (Ohio), every team in men’s college basketball has at least two losses on the season. What can these losses teach us?

Duke Blue Devils (29–2)

Duke Blue Devils forward Cameron Boozer reacts with guard Isaiah Evans and guard Caleb Foster after being fouled. | Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

Current ranking: No. 1
Odds to win title: +320
Losses this year: vs. No. 19 Texas Tech (82–81), at No. 14 North Carolina (71–68)
Recipe for an upset: Scorch the second half.

First and foremost, it is really hard to beat this Duke team. The Blue Devils have just two losses on the season, both of which came on the road, against ranked opponents, and were decided by four points combined. Essentially, Duke was six points away from running the table this year. But if there is one thing we can glean from Duke’s two losses this season, it’s that the Blue Devils are susceptible to losing a game in the second half.

In both of their losses this season, the Blue Devils took a 10-point lead into halftime, only to watch that entire lead unravel in the second half. Meanwhile, in Duke’s 10 wins over ranked teams this year, it’s won the second half in all but one game. If teams are looking to upset the Blue Devils in March, they’re going to have to have their legs under them, and be able to out-hustle Duke coming out of halftime and into the final minutes.

Arizona Wildcats (29–2)

Current ranking: No. 2
Odds to win title: +450
Losses this year: at No. 9 Kansas (82–78), vs. No. 16 Texas Tech (78–75)
Recipe for an upset: Contest every shot.

Like Duke, this Arizona team is rightfully seen as a force heading into March Madness this year, with just two losses on the season coming by a total of seven points. Further, the Wildcats’ only two losses came back-to-back within five days of each other in mid-February. Maybe there was something going around the locker room that week.

For teams looking for One Weird Trick to Beat Arizona this year, there’s no easy answer, but they’re best bet is to grind on defense and get a hand in the face of every shooter all night. The Wildcats shot 50.1% from the field this year, good for 14th across all of college basketball and third among Power Four schools. In their two losses, the Wildcats shot 44% and 39% from the floor—two of their worst outings of the year. The real answer here might be that any team hoping to take down Arizona has to 1) play a perfect game and 2) hope that the Wildcats are having an off night shooting, but if there is anything to be done, it’s defend, defend, defend, defend.

Michigan Wolverines (29–2)

Michigan State's Jaxon Kohler tries to get position on Michigan's Yaxel Lendeborg and Nimari Burnett. | Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Current ranking: No. 3
Odds to win title: +340
Losses this year: vs. Wisconsin (91–88), vs. No. 3 Duke (68–63)
Recipe for an upset: Dominate the glass.

Michigan is the last of our two-loss teams, and is right next to Duke as a betting favorite to take home the national championship. A rematch with the Blue Devils in the Final Four or championship game after their midseason showdown in D.C. would be a fitting end to the year. But for teams hoping to spoil the Wolverines’ run early in the tournament, their best bet is to rebound like wild. Michigan’s two losses included two of its three worst rebounding performances of the season, allowing their opposition to win the battle of possession and with it, the game.

This is no easy task, as Michigan is one of the best rebounding teams in the country, ranking ninth in total rebound percentage and No. 15 in rebounds per game. But if a team wants to have a fighting chance at upsetting the Wolverines, the battle on the glass is going to be crucial.

Florida Gators (25–6)

Current ranking: No. 4
Odds to win title: +750
Losses this year: vs. No. 13 Arizona (93–87), vs. TCU (84-80), at No. 4 Duke (67–66), vs. No. 5 UConn (77–73), at Missouri (76–74), vs. Auburn (76–67)
Recipe for an upset: Protect the ball.

While six losses might look like a lot compared to the teams ahead of them, the number is a bit deceiving, as four of the Gators’ losses came in the opening weeks of the season during a stretch of the schedule packed with high-level inter-conference opposition. Since the second week in December, the reigning champions have grown a lot, losing just two games and playing like one of the hottest teams in the country. One stat teams looking to hand them another L might want to consider—turnovers. The Florida defense is forcing nearly 11 turnovers per game out of its opposition, but in the five games this year where they haven’t cleared eight turnovers, the Gators’ record drops to a staggering 2–3.

Houston Cougars (26–5)

Current ranking: No. 5
Odds to win title: 12/1
Losses this year: vs. No. 17 Tennessee (76–73), at No. 12 Texas Tech (90–86), at No. 6 Iowa State (70–67), vs. No. 4 Arizona (73–66), at No. 14 Kansas (69–56)
Recipe for an upset: Offensive rebounding.

There is no team in college basketball hungrier to break through with a national championship than Houston. Coach Kelvin Sampson has built the program into a powerhouse, earning a No. 1 seed in March Madness three straight years, only to see each of those campaigns fall short, including finishing as the runner-up in a two-point loss in the title game to Florida last year. This year, the Cougars are at it again, with just five losses to their name as they enter the Big 12 tournament. A commonality between some of those losses? Houston has allowed its opponent 12 offensive rebounds in a game just four times on the year, and is 1–3 in those games.

UConn Huskies (27–4)

UConn Huskies head coach Dan Hurley watches from the sideline as they take on the Villanova Wildcats. | David Butler II-Imagn Images

Current ranking: No. 6
Odds to win title: 18/1
Losses this year: vs. No. 4 Arizona (71–67), at No. 22 St. John’s (81–72), vs. Creighton (91–84), vs. Marquette (68-62)
Recipe for an upset: Get to the foul line.

With two titles in the past three years, few teams are built for March quite like Dan Hurley’s Huskies. This year’s UConn squad is once again a wagon, with just four losses to their regular season campaign, two of which represented season-splits with a conference foe. One thread that ties UConn’s four losses together? Letting the opposition get to the foul line. The Huskies have played 31 games this season. In games where their opponents have shot less than 30 free throw attempts, they are 25–2. In games where the opposing team clears 30 trips to the line, UConn is just 2–2. While I acknowledge that “shooting more free throws is good” is far from a groundbreaking insight, the message to teams looking to upset the Huskies is clear—drive hard, look for contact and make your free throws.

Iowa State Cyclones (25–6)

Current ranking: No. 7
Odds to win title: 22/1
Losses this year: at Kansas (84–63), at Cincinnati (79–70), at TCU (62–55), at No. 23 BYU (79–69), vs. No. 16 Texas Tech (82–73), at No. 2 Arizona (73–57)
Recipe for an upset: Defense. Defense. Defense.

It’s possible Iowa State has my favorite data point discovered throughout the entirety of this process. The Cyclones are shooting an extremely solid 49% from the floor this year, good for second in the Big 12 trailing only Arizona. In 20 of its 30 games played in the regular season, Iowa State shot at least 46% from the floor, and boasted a record of 20–0 in those games. However, in the 11 games the Cyclones shot worse than 46% from the floor they are 5–6. It’s possible that the better advice here to teams looking for an upset is to simply pray Iowa State has an off-night shooting, but it would appear that at least so far this year, 46% is the magic number for Iowa State. Keep the Cyclones below it, and you have a chance.

Michigan State Spartans (25–6)

Current ranking: No. 8
Odds to win title: 40/1
Losses this year: vs. No. 4 Duke (66–60), at No. 13 Nebraska (58–56), vs. No. 2 Michigan (83–71), at Minnesota (76–72), at Wisconsin (92–71)
Recipe for an upset: Force the three. Win on the glass.

Teams are shooting more threes than ever before at the college level, but as the saying goes, if you live by the three, you die by the three. For any teams looking to take down Michigan State in March Madness, they might be best served by keeping their defense packed in and forcing the Spartans to settle for deep looks. Throughout the course of the season, the more threes the Spartans have shot, the worse their result has been, with four of their five losses coming in games where they took 23 or more shots from beyond the arc. More threes is a stat that can be both signal and noise, as it can be a sign that a team is already trailing and in need of a comeback, but the fact that four of Michigan State’s five losses came in that context is worth noting. Rebounding will also be crucial in taking on the Spartans—in the five games that Michigan State allowed the opposing team to get at least 30 boards, Sparty is just 2–3.