Where Bracketologists Have Michigan in Projected NCAA Tournament Field

Looking at where the Wolverines are projected to land in the tournament

Jan 17, 2026; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Michigan Wolverines guard L.J. Cason (2) reacts to a loose ball play during the second half] against the Oregon Ducks at Matthew Knight Arena. Mandatory Credit: Craig Strobeck-Imagn Images | Craig Strobeck-Imagn Images

Sitting at 16-1 and ranked as the No. 3 team in the nation, it's obvious that theMichigan Wolverines are well on their way to making the NCAA Tournament.

The question will not be whether Dusty May's team gets in, but rather, what seed the Wolverines will get and where they will play once March Madness begins.

While Selection Sunday (March 15) may seem far off, college basketball teams are at around the halfway point in the season as the picture in college basketball becomes clearer as the weeks pass.

Here is where Michigan is projected in ESPN and CBS Sports' versions of "bracketology."

ESPN

ESPN's Joe Lunardi posted an updated version of his bracket prediction on his X account on Tuesday afternoon, with the Wolverines landing as the No. 2 overall seed in the tournament.

pic.twitter.com/tZnW7COuks

— Joe Lunardi (@ESPNLunardi) January 20, 2026

Lunardi, as of Tuesday, projects Michigan as a No. 1 seed in the Midwest region, as the United Center in Chicago would host the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 if the Wolverines were to advance that far.

CBS Sports

CBS Sports' David Cobb and Jacob Fetner also have Michigan as a top seed in the Midwest region. Joining the Wolverines as a No. 1 seed, according to CBS Sports, would be Duke, Arizona and Purdue.

CBS Sports' version differs from Lunardi's as it relates to the top seeds, as Lunardi has UConn as a No. 1 seed as opposed to Purdue.

Jan 14, 2026; Seattle, Washington, USA; Michigan Wolverines center Aday Mara (15) dunks the ball while guarded by Washington Huskies center Franck Kepnang (11) during the second half at Alaska Airlines Arena at Hec Edmundson Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-Imagn Images | Steven Bisig-Imagn Images

Michigan's chances at a No. 1 seed

At Team Rankings, the site publishes teams' projected win/loss record, along with chances of receiving an NCAA Tournament bid, chances of receiving an automatic bid, and chances of getting a No. 1 seed.

The projections, based on the Team Rankings website, are based off thousands of computer simulations run each day during the college basketball season.

As it stands, the Wolverines have a 79% chance of earning a No. 1 seed, a 46% chance at an automatic bid (winning the Big 10 Tournament), a 100% chance of an NCAA Tournament bid, and are projected to finish with a 27-4 overall record.

Jan 14, 2026; Seattle, Washington, USA; Michigan Wolverines head coach Dusty May during the second half against the Washington Huskies at Alaska Airlines Arena at Hec Edmundson Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-Imagn Images | Steven Bisig-Imagn Images

Michigan has earned a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament on three occasions, including in 1985, 1993 and 2021.

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