Assessing Michigan’s over/under win total for the rest of the regular season

Michigan’s regular season win total is 8.5 at most online sports books. What does that mean for how Vegas projects Michigan to finish the rest of the season? Well, to put it simply, they project Michigan to lose at least one more regular season game with two (or more) other possible losses for the Wolverines as well.

The Wolverines currently sit at 3-1 following wins over New Mexico, Central Michigan, and Nebraska with their only loss coming on the road at Oklahoma. The rest of the schedule is pretty manageable however; so some Michigan fans may be surprised Vegas projects them to lose at least two more games the rest of the way. They come off their bye week to take on a struggling Wisconsin team at home, then travel out west to take on a USC team who just lost in the road to Illinois. After USC, they return home to take on Washington at home followed by Michigan State on the road. As they get to November, they finish with Purdue at home, at Northwestern, at Maryland, and at home against the Ohio State Buckeyes. At first glance this seems like a very manageable schedule but the more you dig into it, the more challenging it can look so I understand some of where Vegas is coming from.

The obvious wins on the schedule the rest of the way should be Wisconsin, Michigan State, Purdue, and Northwestern. Some others would argue Maryland should be a win as well but they do have a really good young QB in true freshman Malik Washington so that game could be more difficult than you’d think. I also think Washington at home isn’t a walk in the park. Demond Williams is a good young QB who’s very mobile, and he shares a backfield with one of the Big Ten’s best RB’s in Jonah Coleman, and also has an All Big Ten type WR in Denzel Boston to throw to out wide. Both defenses though for Maryland and Washington remain suspect and given the overall talent and projecting improvement for Michigan down the road, you’d expect Michigan to win both those games from a Vegas win total standpoint.

That leaves at USC and at home against Ohio State as the real lynchpin games for the Wolverines. Vegas would project Michigan to lose against Ohio State, but they’ve also projected Michigan losses the last four years and has been wrong every year. Michigan will likely also be a very narrow road favorite on the road at USC, leaving that as a toss up essentially.

All things considered, I think this win total is a bad number and would recommend taking the Over on 8.5 wins for Michigan by the end of the regular season. To me this should be 9.5 with probable wins yet to come against Wisconsin, Michigan State, Purdue, and Northwestern, with two more games Michigan will still be favored in against Washington and Maryland. That alone gets you to 9 wins and you could still lose at USC and at home against the Buckeyes, will cashing this Over play. Given that the USC game is on the road and they still have to play Ohio State at the end of the year who will likely be undefeated and the #1 team in the country, their most likely record this year is 9-3, with 10-2 actually being more likely than 8-4 in my opinion.

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