Michigan bowl projections as Wolverines remain in College Football Playoff race

The Wolverines look to find their way back into the College Football Playoff in 2025

Oct 18, 2025; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Michigan Wolverines linebacker Cole Sullivan (23) celebrates after he makes an interception in the second half at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images | Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

With five weeks remaining in the regular season of college football, eyes are starting to turn to who will be playing where when postseason play comes around later this year.  For the No. 21 Michigan Wolverines, they have officially become bowl eligible following their 31-20 win over Michigan State on Saturday, Oct. 25.

This marks the 10th consecutive season of the Wolverines being bowl eligible, excluding 2020, which was shortened due to COVID-19. 

Back in the CFP

After three consecutive playoff appearances (2021-2023), Michigan was on the outside looking in for the first time in four years a season ago.

With the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff, the Wolverines are still in control of their own destiny when it comes to a CFP berth. Michigan has a favorable schedule leading up to ‘The Game’ against No. 1 Ohio State on Nov. 29 at The Big House. 

The CFP is in a slightly different format than a season ago, with the top four teams receiving a first-round bye instead of the four highest conference champions. 

Projections

Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach of ESPN released their bowl projections on Sunday afternoon. In those projections, they both have the Wolverines playing in the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl in Orlando, Fla., on New Year's Eve. 

Bonagura has the Wolverines slated to take on Vanderbilt, while Schlabach projects Texas to be on the other side of the ball. Ironically, the two teams will face off this Saturday in Austin, Texas, at noon. 

Michigan wide receiver Semaj Morgan (0) makes a catch for a touchdown against Texas defensive back Jaylon Guilbeau (3) during the second half at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor on Saturday, September 7, 2024. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK

About Texas 

The Longhorns currently stand at 6-2 overall and 3-1 in Southeastern Conference (SEC) play. Sophomore quarterback Arch Manning, who was the No.1-ranked player in the class of 2023, is at the helm of the offense. 

Manning has been a tad underwhelming compared to expectations heading into the 2025 season, currently ranking 11th in the conference in passing efficiency (141.0) and ninth in passing yards per game (224.4).

The Wolverines have taken on the Longhorns twice in program history, falling in both contests. The teams played at the beginning of the 2024 season as Texas took home a 31-12 victory.

About Vandy

Perhaps the biggest surprise of the 2025 college football season is the Commodores. Vandy is 7-1 overall and 3-1 in conference action, defeating Missouri and LSU in its last two matchups.

Leading the Commodores’ offense is quarterback Diego Pavia. The graduate student has the third-best passing efficiency (159) in the conference and the fifth-most passing touchdowns (15).

UofM and Vandy have played each other 11 times, with  Michigan winning 10 of those matchups and there being one tie between the two squads. The last time the two teams met was Sept. 2, 2006, when Michigan took down Vanderbilt 27-7 in Ann Arbor.

Final Thoughts

There is still plenty to be optimistic about with the 2025 Michigan football squad. Eight games into the season and still controlling your own destiny to the playoffs should be enough for any fan to stay excited this time of year.

While on the flip side, it seems like the floor for this team is eight wins with a solid bowl game is the floor for this team. 

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