Michigan Football Bowl Projections After Heartbreaking Loss to Iowa

Week four was a heartbreaker for Michigan football fans, falling to Iowa on the final play of the game to open Big Ten play. The Wolverines objectively controlled the game, but were held back by undisciplined penalties and not finishing drives.

UofM finished with 429 yards of total offense, as opposed to just 285 for the Hawkeyes. Heading into halftime, Iowa only had 77 yards of offense, with its only touchdown coming from the special teams unit.

JJ Buchanan scores a touchdown. — Sep 26, 2026; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Michigan Wolverines wide receiver JJ Buchanan (6) runs to score a touchdown against the Iowa Hawkeyes during the second half at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The loss dropped Michigan outside of the AP Top 25, but how did it impact its postseason projections?

Here are updated projections on UofM’s postseason destination.

ESPN

There is a shakeup in the projections for Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach of ESPN this week, as they released their bowl predictions early Monday morning (Sept. 28).

Schlabach's pick stayed consistent with weeks prior, keeping UofM in the ReliaQuest Bowl, taking on Tennessee, which was a popular pick last week. Both the Volunteers and Wolverines fell to ranked opponents this past weekend.

Tennesse football player runs the ball. — Sep 26, 2026; Knoxville, Tennessee, USA; Tennessee Volunteers quarterback Faizon Brandon (11) runs against the Texas Longhorns during the second half at Neyland Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Randy Sartin-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

However, Bonagura had a different landing place for the Maize and Blue, predicting they would play in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl against Virginia. This is the first time this season we’ve seen Michigan projected to go up against the Cavaliers in bowl season.

Sports Illustrated

A very different projection this week for Bryan Fischer of Sports Illustrated. In last week’s projections, he had Michigan matched up with Tennessee in the ReliaQuest Bowl. Now, he has the Wolverines in the Music City Bowl against Missouri.

Savion Hiter stiff arms an opponent — Sep 26, 2026; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Michigan Wolverines running back Savion Hiter (5) runs against Iowa Hawkeyes defensive back Tyler Brown (2) during the second half at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

I don’t think this is a very accurate prediction in terms of the opponent. Missouri is a very skeptical No. 25 team in the country and has a tough schedule to close out the season. If Michigan did find its way into the Music City Bowl, the opponent would be a bit tougher.

College Football News

For three consecutive weeks, Pete Fiutak of College Football News has had the same prediction. Michigan taking on Tennessee in the ReliaQuest Bowl.

Out of all the predictions and what we’ve seen on the field, this seems most likely.

Dom Nichols rushes the QB. — Sep 26, 2026; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes quarterback Hank Brown (9) looks to pass against the Michigan Wolverines during the first half at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Final Takeaways

These predictions are the biggest change we’ve seen since the start of the season.

What I didn’t mention throughout this is that Iowa is starting to enter the College Football Playoff picture. We can only assume that if Michigan had won that game, they would’ve been in that conversation.

Moving forward, if the Wolverines can get back on track, expect to see them gain some traction in that conversation. The improvement we have seen each week should be encouraging.

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