REPORT: Bracketologist Gives Honest Breakdown of MSU Basketball

Joe Lunardi, one of the best bracketologists in the business, recently broke down where Michigan State currently stands.

Feb 15, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Michigan State Spartans head coach Tom Izzo during the second half against the Illinois Fighting Illini at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

The Michigan State Spartans have been one of the hottest teams in the country over the past few weeks. 

Tom Izzo’s team has rattled off three straight victories over solid teams, most recently a double-digit win over Michigan on the road. 

For the first time in a few years, MSU fans will not sweat out Selection Sunday, wondering if the team will even make the NCAA Tournament. Instead, fans are wondering how high of a seed the team is capable of landing. 

ESPN’s Joe Lunardi currently has the Spartans as a No. 2 seed in the South region. Auburn is the No. 1 seed in that region, which features Kentucky, Arizona, and Kansas. 

On MSU’s current standing, Lunardi wrote: 

“It has been fairly well accepted that Tom Izzo is an excellent bet in March. However, since the 2019 Final Four, Michigan State has been a second weekend team only once, and never above a 7-seed. Some would argue the Spartans peaked about a decade ago. Which makes their sudden surge to the top of the Big Ten that much more surprising. They were picked fifth in Big Ten preseason voting and have been flying under the radar since November losses to Kansas and Memphis.”

Lunardi also had a tough but fair criticism of the Spartans’ game and how high their ceiling is:

“The analytics suggest a team shooting under 30% from 3 can't win in the modern game, but Izzo's teams are smart enough not to take too many. Instead, they pound the offensive glass (13th in the country), make their free throws (eighth, 79.9%) and hold opponents to even worse 3-point shooting.

It's probably not enough to win six NCAA tournament games, but a Final Four isn't out of the question.”

MSU is certainly a talented team, but it is fair to question how far it could go if it does not hit its open jump shots. 

If Lunardi’s bracket were true, the Spartans would face 15-seeded Robert Morris in the first round. If they do not get Middle Tennessee’d, they would face the winner of Memphis and Vanderbilt (hello, AJ Hoggard). 

It would certainly be a breath of fresh air for the Spartan faithful for MSU not to white-knuckle the last Sunday before the tournament. While this team is flawed, it is as well-positioned as ever to make a run in March.

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