Diving Deep into Upcoming Michigan State at Penn State Matchup

Let's take a closer look at MSU's important Big Ten game against the Nittany Lions.

Michigan State forward Coen Carr (55) makes a jump shot against Duke during the second half at Breslin Center in East Lansing on Saturday, Dec. 6, 2025. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

No Big Ten game is unimportant, and this Saturday will be a nice test of No. 9 Michigan State's resolve.

The Spartans (8-1 overall, 1-0 Big Ten) are about to face Penn State (8-2, 0-1) during their first true road game of the season. They are also coming off their first loss of the season, against fourth-ranked Duke, and will have to avoid the mental fatigue of finals week (PSU's are next week).

From left, Michigan State players guard Kur Teng (2), guard Divine Ugochukwu (99), forward Cameron Ward (3) and guard Trey Fort (9) watch the last seconds of the second half against Duke at Breslin Center in East Lansing on Saturday, Dec. 6, 2025. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Penn State's record seems fine on the surface, but it is a bit bloated from its weak schedule, which is ranked well into the 300s on KenPom. All eight of the Nittany Lions' wins were in Quad 4 games; they lost by 41 points at Indiana on Tuesday during their first Q1 game, and they lost by 12 against Providence during a Q2 game.

MSU, on the other hand, is 4-1 in Q1 games with multiple wins over teams currently ranked in the AP Top 25. This game is classified as a Q2 opportunity for the Spartans.

When Michigan State has the Ball

Michigan State guard Jeremy Fears Jr. communicates with his teammates during a game against San Jose State on Thursday, Nov. 13, 2025. | Starr Portice, Michigan State Spartans on SI

This could be a game where Michigan State gets its three-point shooting going again. Penn State's opponents are shooting 35.4% of their threes so far this year, which is all the way down at 290th in Division I, as of Friday afternoon.

That part has gotten much better for the Spartans after a slow start to the season from deep. MSU is just above the Division I average at 33.7% for the season.

Michigan State should be able to control the boards, too. PSU's average rebound margin is plus-1.4, while MSU's is plus-11.9.

The Nittany Lions' defense's true weak point is in the interior; they rarely block shots, and teams are making about 57% of their two-point attempts this year. Penn State's entire defense is just ranked by KenPom outside the top 200.

Michigan State Spartans forward Jaxon Kohler inbounds the ball during a game against the Iowa Hawkeyes on Tuesday, Dec. 2, 2025, at the Breslin Center. | Starr Portice, Michigan State Spartans on SI

PSU's strength is defending without fouling. The Nittany Lions only commit 13.9 fouls per game, which is the 10th-fewest in college basketball. Michigan State is going to have to make the shots it gets.

Given these factors, look for senior forward Jaxon Kohler to potentially have a good scoring game with his ability to shoot and also score from the post. He'll likely have a slight height advantage at the four over his likely primary defender, Josh Reed; Kohler is 6-foot-10, and Reed is 6-foot-8.

When Penn State has the Ball

Nov 19, 2025; University Park, Pennsylvania, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions guard Kayden Mingo (4) drives the ball towards the basket defended by Harvard Crimson guard Ben Eisendrath (5) during the first half at Bryce Jordan Center. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Something that should help MSU is that Penn State does not like to shoot too many threes. The Nittany Lions' total number of three-point attempts is 18.9 per game, which also ranks in the 300s in the country. The percentage is pretty good --- 37.0% is ranked around the 50s --- but PSU seems to be a more selective team.

That may partially be because Penn State has played a lot of inferior competition, which has allowed it to easily establish itself as the more physically dominant team. Such a strategy deployed against a low-level team is not going to hold up against the Spartans. Michigan State forces its opponents to take a lot of threes, and they have not made very many of them so far.

Leading the way for PSU is freshman guard Kayden Mingo, the highest-rated recruit in program history. He is averaging 15.4 points, 3.8 rebounds, 4.0 assists, and 2.1 steals per game. Mingo is willing to shoot the three, but he's only made 6 of his 31 tries so far. He's been much better when he finds a way to penetrate the defense, as he makes nearly 60% of his twos.

MSU's Jeremy Fears Jr. will likely be his primary defender. Fears has a defensive box plus/minus of 6.6, which is the best mark on the Spartans.

Jan 15, 2025; East Lansing, Michigan, USA; Michigan State Spartans guard Jeremy Fears Jr. (1) drives past Penn State Nittany Lions guard Ace Baldwin Jr. (1) during the first half at Jack Breslin Student Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Dale Young-Imagn Images | Dale Young-Imagn Images

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