Here Are Some Hurdles Spartan Football Has to Jump Over for a 2010 Big Ten Football Title

Mark Dantonio Put The Big Ten on Notice in Chicago that his Spartans are in it to win it! Photo Bill Marklevits  Well, it’s that time of year again. Big

Mark Dantonio Put The Big Ten on Notice in Chicago

that his Spartans are in it to win it!

Photo Bill Marklevits

 

Well, it’s that time of year again. Big Ten football is just around the corner and hope springs eternal for all of the contenders and pretenders chasing a coveted Big Ten Title,

and once again at the Big Ten Media Day, Head Coach Mark Dantonio was laying out the plans for reaching the pinnacle of conference glory. So fans might be thinking, how can MSU take the next step to glory and finish this season in style? Let me provide you with some detailed answers as I break it down for you from my perspective with a “To Do” list for the 2009 football season.

 Unfinished Business: First, one clear motivating factor is that the Spartans still have a lot to prove and a few speed bumps to ride over to legitimately compete for the title. Taking a thumping from Ohio State and Penn State and losing to a Georgia team that was begging to give the game away could not have sit well with coaches, players and fans of  Spartan Nation, despite the giddiness of winning nine games. Coach Dantonio, staff, and players did a good job of finishing games last year, but now the next step is competing and winning against traditional powers, and winning a bowl game.

I received an e-mail from someone who said that despite John L. Smith losing to Rutgers and Louisiana Tech, he felt that somehow those teams, despite their mediocre record, seemed to play better in big games. Quite frankly, I couldn’t disagree, they did play better against bigger opponents, but often collapsed in the fourth quarter, and losing on the scoreboard despite outplaying their big name opponent was growing weary on the Spartan Nation. Now, sometimes Smith and his staff actually won some of those games in victories over Penn State, highly-rated Wisconsin and Notre Dame. So I understand this fans concern, although Dantonio won against these same three teams even if not in impressive fashion. There  have been some lopsided losses at both Cincinnati and MSU for Dantonio, and that clearly was on Mark’s mind as he spoke on Monday at the Chicago press conference. He mentioned confidence was a factor, but what ever it is, they need to find it fast. A victory over Michigan last year on the road despite their mediocre record is a start.

Plus we should remember, that Dantonio is a coach so far that has beaten who they were expected to beat, unlike coach Smith, whose teams were madly competitive against better teams but couldn’t get up for or at least beat lesser teams on the schedule. So be patient fans, Coach Dantonio is aware of this and will be working on this.

 Fighting Complacency: The Spartans have a clear chance to win a championship and even have some advantages, like the fact that Ohio State is not on the schedule and that in itself is a boost in the arm to anyone’s title chances. The most important urge here is to fight complacency while everyone is patting them on the back for two consecutive bowl appearances and nine wins last year. Let’s not forget they were a missed tackle away in the Iowa game, and a missed field goal away n the Wisconsin game from winning just seven games. Yet, let’s also give them credit for building in this team the ability to finish and win games, something that must carry over to the 2009 season.

Third Down Conversions: Despite winning nine games last year they have problems that need to be cleaned up to progress any farther. First, MSU was ranked 98th in the country in third down conversions (66-191) for just above a 34% average. When you take in the fact that the Spartans were also ranked 85th in passing efficiency, it’s easy to see why. This lead to a ranking of just 74th in the country for total offense (343-yards per game), thus putting a lot of pressure on the defense to keep MSU in games. Plus with the loss of Brian Hoyer and Javon Ringer now, it won’t get any better unless the offense is tweaked schematically and receivers start catching the ball. You have to run the ball to win, but it can’t always be in the teeth of the defense. The Spartans will need to throw in some cutbacks, counters and other misdirection plays to offset their 77th ranking in net rushing yards that even included the brilliance of Javon Ringer. Throw in the fact that receivers dropped 63 passes, and Coach Treadwell, who is their position coach as well as the offensive coordinator, is going to have his hands full. To be fair, I should also mention that third down defense wasn’t so great either, as MSU gave up a 41% conversion rate, which put them at 74th in the nation.

Catch The Ball: As I alluded to above, Spartan receivers dropped 63-passes last year and they need to do better. Plus, while I see several quality possession-type receivers, I don’t see anybody explosive on the outside like former Spartan Devin Thomas. In fact, had Blair White not stepped up to make some critical catches, this unit could have been in trouble.

Yet to be fair, this unit almost battled injuries all year, including Mark Dell’s hamstring.

Here is an interesting comparison, last year both MSU and Florida both averaged about 213-yards passing per game. Yet Florida had a whopping 33-touchdown passes to just 11 for MSU. MSU also had a lower completion percentage of 53% to 64% for Florida. With Ringer in the backfield and defenses geared to stop Javon, those numbers should have been much better. I sat down and watched offensive film with someone I trust in this area and we both came to the same conclusion. It’s not that the route running is poor, it’s just that the routes aren’t fooling anyone, something I alluded to last year. No hitch or hesitant and go’s, no double moves, not much to create separation or fool defenders. That’s why you see so many times Hoyer would go back and couldn’t find open receivers. Plus, some of those drops were in heavy traffic, something that can happen without proper separation. Treadwell and the receivers need more creativity in running their routes and hopefully that will happen. Look for the other Rucker, Chris D. who does have some explosiveness, to move up the depth chart and challenge for more playing time after an excellent spring.

Spartan RB

Running Backs: Who will be the guy? The fact that MSU has a power running attack right into the teeth of the defense gives an edge to guys like Edwin Baker, Glenn Winston, Caulton Ray, and Aston Leggett. Yet, the guy who could be the most explosive for MSU providing there are holes and gaps to run through could be Andre Anderson. Throw in Larry Caper and AJ Jimmerson and things could be interesting. Here in lies the problem, as explosive as Anderson is with great top-end speed, he needs to get to the open spaces to be effective, he is not a pile mover like the first four guys I mentioned, and as much as I like Caper, he too is not a pile driver, and more of a east-west and cutback runner like Anderson. If Coach Treadwell were to add some counter-run plays ala DeAndre Cobb had when he was playing for the Spartans, Anderson, Capers and Jimmerson could provide

a dimension that could lead to some bigger plays for the Spartans, especially as 3rd down receivers, and the Spartans certainly need some help on third down. If that doesn’t happen, hopefully a healthy Baker, who looks like the next coming of Beanie Wells, and Winston, who reminds me of Caulcrick with his combination of power and speed might have the edge. Leggett, who is a smooth runner and had a good spring is the mix. Ray is intriguing because despite his size, is able to bust through the line and gets to the perimeter quickly, but questions about top-end separation speed remain despite a solid forty time. Ultimately, this looks like a running back by committee proposition.

 Keep Doing That: The Spartan defense has some work to do as reflected by the third down conversion rate mentioned earlier and perhaps the yards per carry average of 4.12 given up, which is 67th in the country. However, they did some great things last year and that was the key to winning nine games a year ago. For example, do you remember Adam Decker’s fourth down stop against Iowa? Well, MSU lead the nation in fourth down stops allowing only three of seventeen conversions, many in critical situations. In addition, they were a respectable 37th in the nation in allowing just about 17 first downs per game, they were also a nifty 37th in pass defense efficiency, and most importantly, 19th in red zone defense, always a huge key to winning games. They’ll need a repeat of all these numbers to compete for a championship.

Return Some Kicks: It would be nice to get some better kick returns to help both field position and give the offense room to work. The Spartans were 94th in the country in kickoff returns, although they did get a spark when Glenn Winston was in there. Punt returns were nothing to write home about either, although Otis Wiley did a good job because of his hands. On the other side, kick return defense ranked 68th, and punt coverage defense was 71st, so Mike Tressel will have his hands full when not busy with the linebackers shoring up the specialty units. On the plus side the kicking with Swenson and the punting with Bates was pretty good and consistent. In the mix to return kicks will be probably AJ Jimmerson, Trenton Robinson and my favorite Johnny Adams. In high school Adam returned 11 punts and two kickoffs for touchdowns in being called the best punt returner in Ohio high school football since Antoine Winfield. He had a nice interception return against Iowa and looks good with the ball in his hands and with open field in front of him, in fact, he also returned three interceptions for touchdowns in high school and had one 70-yard fumble recovery for another. Therefore his ability in finding space is undeniable and he has to be looked at and considered. Robinson was very good in the spring and is capable. Don’t count out Winston as he continues to work on his business at hand. Incoming freshmen Jairus Jones averaged 25.8 yards per kick return and 14.9 yards per punt return on the prep seen against solid competition and might get a look. Speaking of kick coverage, don’t be surprised if Denicos Allen sees early action here. He is disruptive and looking to see the field early.

 Intangibles: As I poured over the other stats that might be pertinent, a couple came to mine, First, having a strong plus total on takeaways (forcing turnovers) will be key. Champions force the other teams into mistakes. Secondly, the Spartans must tackle well, and finally, finding a way to make plays like that they did in 2008 will be key. If they can accomplish the things I mentioned here and attention is paid the details, Spartan fans will likely be celebrating a championship.