3 Bold Predictions for Michigan State's Test at Rutgers
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“It’s a trap!” are the famous words of Admiral Ackbar in Return of the Jedi, and some of that applies to Michigan State basketball.
Don’t get caught looking ahead. That game on Friday against a certain school from Ann Arbor looks so fun right now, but there is other business that must be taken care of first before one of the biggest days on the MSU sports calendar arrives.
Before one can get to third-ranked Michigan, the seventh-ranked Spartans have to get by… Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights are 9-11 overall, 2-7 during Big Ten play, and — yeah, I’m already kind of thinking about Friday night again, too.
That’s what makes this game tricky. It fits the textbook definition of a “trap game:” it’s on the road, a relatively miserable opponent, and it’s only a few days before a top-10 matchup against an arch-rival.
Tuesday will be the biggest test yet of Michigan State’s focus. KenPom gives MSU a 93% chance to take down Rutgers, but conditions are ripe for the wheel to land on that 7% chance.
Will that happen? Who knows. Still, let’s try and predict how this game will go.
Slower Start for MSU
Out of the gates, I do think this team’s resolve and focus will be tested. The Spartans basically buried Maryland on Saturday within minutes, going on an 18-0 run to take an early 24-4 lead. That’s less likely to happen in this game.
Firstly, this game is in Piscataway. It’s officially called “Jersey Mike’s Arena,” but everyone basically calls it “The RAC,” and it’s one of the toughest places to play at in the Big Ten when full. Tuesday probably won’t be the toughest atmosphere on Earth, but MSU is perhaps a team that can draw fans there for a Tuesday night. Either way, it’s still a road game, and Michigan State won’t get the chance to feed off a friendly crowd when it gathers the momentum.
It’s probably going to be closer to the situation in Oregon for the Spartans. That game was also on a Tuesday night with a pretty sleepy crowd by virtue of a rough season to this point. Perhaps a contingent of local Michigan State alumni in New York or New Jersey will make their way to the game as well.
What’s also interesting is that MSU actually hasn’t played in Piscataway in four years. The Spartans played their “road game” against the Scarlet Knights at Madison Square Garden in New York City in 2023 and 2025, instead. In Michigan State’s last game at The RAC on Feb. 5, 2022, Gabe Brown was the team’s leading scorer that night in an 84-63 loss, if that’s an indication of how long it’s been.
Rutgers Fails to Score 60
I thought this about Maryland, and the Terrapins ended up only scoring 48, so maybe I gave them too much credit. Chances are that Rutgers will be able to score more than that, but the ceiling isn’t very high for the Scarlet Knights’ offense on Tuesday.
Pretty simple reasoning here. Michigan State has the best defense in the country. It’s not even close during Big Ten play, where MSU is only allowing 89.3 points per 100 possessions. Nebraska is in second place in the conference at 98.6.
Rutgers’ offense is 15th in offensive efficiency during Big Ten play. The Spartans have played the three teams below them, too. USC (16th) scored 51, Maryland (17th) scored 48, and Oregon scored 52.
If Michigan State even reaches 65 points on offense, this game should be in its hands.
Multiple Spartans Record Double-Doubles
MSU’s Jeremy Fears Jr. should be able to rack up the assists in this one, and I also think one of Jaxon Kohler or Carson Cooper should be able to rack up the rebounds. Fears is coming off of his best passing performance of his career, racking up 17 assists against Maryland in what is tied for the second-most dimes in a game in Michigan State history. He’s playing like an All-American right now, and that should continue to show against KenPom’s 156th-ranked defense.
Additionally, one of Kohler and Cooper is probably due for one, but with rebounds, rather than assists. Kohler is the most likely candidate, given that he has 10 double-doubles this season. The issue is that he’s had a mini-slump, going three games without one (this is partially because he was a little under the weather out west, per Izzo). These mini-accomplishments are real goals players set for themselves, and I think Kohler or Cooper get there, as well as Fears during a relatively easier Michigan State win.
Final Prediction: No. 7 MSU 77, Rutgers 57
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A 2025 graduate from Michigan State University, Cotsonika brings a wealth of experience covering the Spartans from Rivals and On3 to his role as Michigan State Spartans Beat Writer on SI. At Michigan State, he was also a member of the world-renowned Spartan marching band for two seasons.
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