3 Predictions for Michigan State Basketball vs. USC
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Michigan State needs this one.
Teams do not get many mulligans in their quest for a Big Ten title. MSU only dropped three of its 20 conference games last year, but the target record to have a good shot is usually 15-5 or 16-4. Something Tom Izzo occasionally refers to is the goal to win all the home games and "split," or go .500, on the road.
The Spartans don't have the most favorable schedule this year. They play Michigan twice every year, and the Wolverines might be the national title favorite right now. MSU faces Purdue at Mackey this season. It simply cannot afford to drop a home game to USC.
So, how will this game go for Michigan State? I've got a few predictions.
Early Foul Trouble for Some MSU Players
No team gets to the charity stripe more often than USC. The Trojans lead the country in both makes and attempts from the free-throw line. USC scores 26.6% of its points that way, which is the fourth-highest percentage nationally, according to KenPom.
Obviously, you cannot get to the free-throw line without drawing fouls. Michigan State is not a team that fouls a whole lot, but foul trouble can definitely disrupt the Spartans' normal rotations, especially earlier in the game. Izzo rarely plays somebody after they pick up a second foul in the first half until after halftime.
Interior Assertions
MSU only scored seven two-point baskets during its loss to Nebraska, and only had 10 points in the paint. Those totals are as low as they get for an Izzo-branded basketball team. Michigan State averages 19.7 two-point field goals per game.
I doubt Izzo is going to allow the Spartans to have another game like what happened at Nebraska happen again. Part of that starts with keeping better care of the ball --- they turned it over 19 times on Friday --- but even the clean possessions rarely generated a look at the rim. More than half of the team's shot attempts on Friday were from beyond the arc.
USC's two-point defense is not ranked as highly as its three-point defense, even though the Trojans have plenty of size. Look for guys like Jaxon Kohler, Carson Cooper, and Coen Carr to get some more looks inside the stripe.
Eyes on Jeremy Fears Jr.
MSU's Jeremy Fears Jr. needs a nice scoring night that revolves around made field goals, rather than free throws. Ten of his 14 points at Nebraska came at the line, with him going 2-for-8 from the field. Michigan State's offense operates much better when Fears is a big threat to score without being fouled.
Fears has struggled to make shots against quality teams. He went 0-for-7 from the field against Arkansas and also 0-for-10 against Duke. He's also had an 8-of-10 day against North Carolina, but his overall field goal percentage against major opponents is 32.7% (16-for-49). Sans that UNC game, he's at just 20.5%.
Final Prediction: Michigan State 71, USC 63
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A 2025 graduate from Michigan State University, Cotsonika brings a wealth of experience covering the Spartans from Rivals and On3 to his role as Michigan State Spartans Beat Writer on SI. At Michigan State, he was also a member of the world-renowned Spartan marching band for two seasons.
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