Ohio State vs. Michigan State Prediction, Odds for College Basketball on Sunday, Feb. 22

For the first time this season, the No. 15 Michigan State Spartans take on the Ohio State Buckeyes in a massive Big Ten clash on Sunday afternoon.

Michigan State has slipped a bit in the AP Poll after losses to Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin and three of its last five games, but Tom Izzo’s squad is coming off a 23-point blowout win over UCLA earlier in the week.

The Spartans allowed just 59 points in that game, and they now rank No. 6 in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency this season.

Meanwhile, the Buckeyes are unranked despite a solid 17-9 record this season. Ohio State has just one win over a ranked opponent – its last game against Wisconsin – but it has played some close games against some of the better teams in the Big Ten.

The Buckeyes had a recent four-point loss to a ranked Virginia team and lost to Nebraska by three, UNC by one and Illinois by just eight earlier in the season.

So, it’s little surprising to see Ohio State as a 9.5-point road underdog in this game, even though Michigan State is a top-10 team in KenPom at this stage in the season.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, a player to watch and my betting prediction for this marquee college basketball matchup on Sunday, Feb. 22.

Ohio State vs. Michigan State Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Ohio State +9.5 (-102)
Michigan State -9.5 (-118)

Moneyline

Ohio State: +370
Michigan State: -485

Total

145.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Ohio State vs. Michigan State How to Watch

Date: Sunday, Feb. 22
Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Breslin Center
How to Watch (TV): CBS
Ohio State record: 17-9
Michigan State record: 21-5

Ohio State vs. Michigan State Key Player to Watch

Jeremy Fears Jr., Guard, Michigan State

The leading scorer for the Spartans this season and a potential future NBA player, Fears is averaging 15.1 points, 2.5 rebounds and 9.3 assists per game this season while shooting 43.3 percent from the field.

His 3-point shot has not been great (27.7 percent), but the sophomore guard is shooting over 90 percent from the free-throw line.

Fears is going to run the show for this Spartans offense, and he’s recorded four consecutive double-doubles, including a 16-point, 10-assist game in the win over UCLA. Fears has also put together some huge scoring games against ranked opponents recently, dropping 31 in a loss to Michigan and 26 in an overtime win over Illinois.

Ohio State vs. Michigan State Prediction and Pick

Neither of these teams has thrived against the spread this season, as Michigan State is 7-7-1 against the number at home while Ohio State is 4-4 straight up and against the spread on the road.

The Spartans have won 13 of their 15 home games, and I do think they’re the far better team in this game. Per KenPom, Michigan State ranks 37th in offensive rating and sixth in defensive rating while the Buckeyes clock in at No. 22 and No. 67 in those two categories.

Both of these teams can score at a high level, but they also rank outside the top-200 in adjusted tempo, per KenPom. Could that be a reason to bet the UNDER on Sunday?

I think there are a few reasons to bet the UNDER, as Michigan State has hit in 15 of 26 games while the Buckeyes have done so 14 times. In addition to that, the UNDER is 9-6 when Michigan State is at home.

While Ohio State has one of the better offenses in the country, the Spartans are 22nd in opponent effective field goal percentage and just 92 in eFG% on offense. Plus, the Buckeyes have recently been without second-leading scorer John Mobley Jr. due to an injury.

So, Michigan State’s defense may be the reason this game goes under, especially if it slows the pace in this matchup.

Since the Spartans are favored by so much, I think the total is the more interesting play on Sunday afternoon.

Pick: UNDER 145.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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