Analysis, Predictions for MSU's Gut-Check Game vs. Illinois
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This game might be the biggest game of Michigan State’s season so far, as the direction of the team’s season goes.
Tenth-ranked MSU has lost back-to-back games, and convincingly so. Now-No. 2 Michigan outplayed them last Friday, and unranked Minnesota was the sharper team this past Wednesday. Now, the Spartans have to try to rebound against a red-hot Illinois team that has won 12 straight and is ranked fifth nationally.
Another loss here, especially if it’s convincingly so, essentially knocks Michigan State out of the running for a Big Ten title. It would also make concerns of the team’s downward direction seem more temporary than the seemingly annual “early February lull.”
Across MSU’s last eight seasons, this one included, the Spartans are 4-11 during the first seven days of the year’s second month. That’s with a 3-2 home record, though. As far as this matchup goes, here are three predictions, analysis of why I feel the way I do, and a guess at the final score.
Near-Zero Rebounding Margin
Not many teams even try to challenge Michigan State’s supremacy on the boards. MSU is too good at scoring off missed shots and too strong on the glass, that teams often decide to just get back on defense once they hoist the best shot they can get.
The Spartans were plus-16 on the boards against Minnesota on Wednesday, but, obviously, it didn’t matter much. The Golden Gophers held Michigan State to only nine fastbreak points, when MSU averages 16.8 such points per game, the most in the Big Ten.
That fastbreak number may go up for the Spartans on Saturday, but expect the rebounding advantage to be much, much slimmer. Michigan State is second in the nation in average rebounding margin (plus-13.3), but Illinois is not far behind at fifth (plus-11.5).
The key for MSU will be on the defensive glass. Michigan State is the best team in the country in this area, according to KenPom, but the Fighting Illini rank fourth on their offensive glass. Everybody who regularly plays for Illinois is tall — everyone in its starting five is 6-foot-6 or taller, with the team’s Ivisic twins playing the five at 7-foot-1 and 7-foot-2.
Turnover Issues Subside
One of the recent issues for MSU lately has been the large number of turnovers. During Big Ten play, no team in the conference has been more likely to give it up on any given possession than Michigan State (19.8% of all possessions).
The good news is that Illinois’ defense is very conservative. No team in all of college basketball has been less likely to force a turnover on a given defensive possession than the Fighting Illini — just 11.5% of the time. During Big Ten play, that number goes down to just 9.8% (Washington ranks 17th in the conference, and it’s up at 12.1%).
On the downside, good luck drawing very many fouls. Illinois is committing more than four fewer fouls per game this season compared to last season, shooting from 121st in the nation in that statistic to second. In total, the Fighting Illini are only getting whistled for a foul 12.1 times per contest this season.
Illinois’ opponents only score 12% of their points against it at the free-throw line. The team’s free-throw rate is the lowest in the country by a relatively substantial margin.
MSU Offense Cannot Keep Up
Those few turnovers don’t mean that Illinois’ defense won’t cause Michigan State’s offense problems. The Illini break out a zone defense relatively often, something that has given Tom Izzo’s teams trouble for years.
Then there’s that little problem that is Illinois’ elite offense. KenPom says it’s the best one in the country. During Big Ten play, it ranks third in points per game, but still is the best in the conference on a per-possession basis, averaging a very nice 1.25 points per possession against Big Ten opponents.
Michigan State is ninth in the Big Ten during conference play at 1.15 points per possession. That 0.1-point difference on a per-possession basis doesn’t seem super significant, but that adds up real quick over the course of 40 minutes and probably 65-70 possessions. MSU actually has a 0.1-point advantage on the defensive end during conference play, but that defense has not looked as strong as usual against Michigan and Minnesota.
The Spartans are 0-3 this season against current AP top-10 teams. They’ve been right there until the end of these games, but it just seems Michigan State is a tier below the nation’s elite. Illinois is one of those teams.
Final Prediction: No. 5 Illinois 76, No. 10 MSU 70
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A 2025 graduate from Michigan State University, Cotsonika brings a wealth of experience covering the Spartans from Rivals and On3 to his role as Michigan State Spartans Beat Writer on SI. At Michigan State, he was also a member of the world-renowned Spartan marching band for two seasons.
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