Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios for MSU Football in 2026

Immediate progress is going to be demanded of Pat Fitzgerald at Michigan State.

The Spartans haven't made a bowl game since 2021. They've gone 5-7, 4-8, 5-7, and 4-8 in the years since Kenneth Walker III's Heisman campaign. MSU doesn't necessarily need to launch itself into CFP contention immediately, but a more respectable product is in demand.

The Best-Case Scenario: 8-4

Michigan State Spartans head football coach Pat Fitzgerald introduces himself to the crowd at a men's basketball game against the Iowa Hawkeyes at the Breslin Center on Tuesday, Dec. 2, 2025. | Starr Portice, Michigan State Spartans on SI

If pretty much everything were to go right for Michigan State this fall, 8-4 doesn't seem super unrealistic. This would mean Alessio Milivojevic clicks as QB1, the brand-new offensive line holds, the receiving corps steps up, the defensive line improves, and several other factors. Again, "best-case scenario."

There are just some games on the schedule where victories don't seem super unrealistic. Wins against Notre Dame on the road, Michigan on the road, and Oregon would feel like stunners at the moment if I had an almanac from the future laid out in front of me.

All the other games are in at least semi-winnable territory. Saying the Spartans will win every single one of those would be pretty generous, though. That's how I landed on 8-4 as a "dream" scenario.

I will add that 8-4 as an absolute ceiling is still not great. If I had to guess a final record right now, I'd go with either 5-7 or 4-8 again. There are some good individual groups and pieces on the team, but this season's schedule is more difficult than last year's, and there are enough holes that I can poke in the roster that lead me to think the bowl drought will reach five years.

The Worst-Case Scenario: 3-9

MSU — Sep 7, 2024; College Park, Maryland, USA; A detailed view of Michigan State Spartans helmet on the field before the game against the Maryland Terrapins at SECU Stadium. | Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

If all were to go wrong, it could go really wrong. What if Milivojevic doesn't work out at quarterback? How much will the lack of a star wide receiver impact things? What if the defense falls short of expectations again? What if the team is massively hampered by injuries again?

There are only two "gimme" games on the schedule: Week 1 against Toledo and Week 2 against Eastern Michigan. The only game against a Power Conference team where Michigan State seems to be the favorite is probably the home game against Northwestern in Week 7.

April 18, 2026; East Lansing, Mich.; Michigan State head coach Pat Fitzgerald watches the action going on during MSU's "Spring Showcase" at Spartan Stadium. | Starr Portice, Michigan State Spartans on SI

If this were to happen, it would be because the team's weaknesses were amplified. Milivojevic looked good during his four starts last season, but there's no guarantee he keeps that up over a 12-game season where defenses know they're facing him.

The lack of proven production at receiver and tight end is a concern. Depth on the defensive line and production in the pass rush are also concerns. Other parts of the team would have to disappoint as well, but those are the main bullet points.

Michigan State's Cam Edwards runs the ball during the football Spring Showcase on Saturday, April 18, 2026, at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing. | Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

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