What a Loss to Indiana Would Mean for Michigan State

The Michigan State Spartans could be in some serious trouble if they don't pull off the upset today.

Michigan State's head coach Jonathan Smith, left, talks with Indiana's head coach Curt Cignetti before the game on Saturday, Nov. 2, 2024, at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing. | Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Michigan State Spartans are trying to get the season back on track by pulling off an upset against the Indiana Hoosiers this afternoon. 

No one is giving the Spartans much of a shot to win the game against one of the best teams in the country, but that is when MSU is at its best. 

It has not been that way for a while, but it wouldn’t hurt for the team to rediscover a Dantonio-esque identity when things are so close to going off the rails. 

It will take discipline, execution, and a minor miracle to pull off this upset, as Indiana is a well-oiled machine on both sides of the ball. Curt Cignetti has quickly turned the Hoosiers into one of the best teams in college football. 

MSU students watch a drone show with a Spartan logo in the air during Izzone Campout at Munn Field near Breslin Center in East Lansing on Friday, Oct. 6, 2023. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK

What will happen to this Spartan program in the likelihood of a loss? 

The outlook for Michigan State

Michigan State's head coach Jonathan Smith looks on form the sideline during the first quarter in the game against Indiana on Saturday, Nov. 2, 2024, at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing. | Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Would MSU fire Jonathan Smith if things go poorly? Lansing State Journal reporter Graham Couch believes that could be a possibility. 

If the Spartans fire Smith after a bad loss to Indiana, a 30-day transfer portal window will open for players wishing to find a new place to play college football. Would the Spartans lose any key contributors? 

Oct 11, 2025; East Lansing, Michigan, USA; Michigan State wide receiver Nick Marsh (6) runs after catching the ball in the fourth quarter against the UCLA Bruins at Spartan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brendan Mullin-Imagn Images | Brendan Mullin-Imagn Images

Beyond speculation, a loss drops MSU to 3-4 and 0-4 in the Big Ten. The team would have its spirit crushed before going into a crucial rivalry game against Michigan. 

The Wolverines dropped a game to USC last weekend, but Sherrone Moore’s team has largely played good football this season. 

Oct 11, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Michigan Wolverines head coach Sherrone Moore in the second half against the USC Trojans at United Airlines Field at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

The Spartans would not be favored in that game, and losing to Michigan for a fourth straight season would crush fans who are already down in the dumps about this program. 

Even if MSU does not fire Smith after the Indiana game, Athletic Director J Batt should begin to compile a shortlist of coaches he might find to be a good fit for the program. Batt did not hire Smith, so he has no ties to him. 

Michigan State Director of Athletics J Batt watches a play against Western Michigan form the sideline during the second half at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing on Friday, August 29, 2025. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

A loss would put the Spartans in a bad place, record-wise and in the grand scheme of things. 

That appears to be the likeliest outcome, so we will monitor what happens within the program after today’s result. 

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