Geography Aids MSU in Latest Bracket Projections

A 68-team bracket with Michigan State in it will be revealed in just a few days.

The eighth-ranked Spartans are still preparing for their Big Ten Tournament run, which will begin in the quarterfinal round on Friday night (approx. 9 p.m. ET, BTN). MSU is entering the postseason with a 25-6 overall record and a 15-5 mark against its fellow Big Ten teams.

Michigan State's head coach Tom Izzo calls out to players during the second half in the game against Michigan on Sunday, March 8, 2026, at the Crisler Center in Ann Arbor. | Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

With a limited number of data points remaining, there is starting to be some increased clarity on where Michigan State might end up being placed in the NCAA Tournament. Plenty of things can go down in the final days before Selection Sunday, though.

Here's where some experts have MSU going to start March Madness at the moment:

ESPN's Projection

Michigan State's Coen Carr looks on during a game against Michigan at the Breslin Center on Friday, Jan. 30, 2026. | Starr Portice, Michigan State Spartans on SI

ESPN's Joe Lunardi most recently updated his full, 68-team bracket projection late Tuesday night. He's continued to keep the Spartans as a 2 seed, slotting them in the East Region, where Duke is the top seed in the region and in the country.

Lunardi also has Michigan State starting its tournament run in Buffalo, N.Y., which is the closest possible first-and second-round location. The first opponent would be 15th-seeded UMBC, the same school that became the first 16 seed to take down a 1 seed when it beat Virginia in 2018.

Michigan State's head coach Tom Izzo reacts after Carson Cooper is called for a foul during the second half in the game against Michigan on Sunday, March 8, 2026, at the Crisler Center in Ann Arbor. | Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

In the next round, Lunardi has MSU facing either No. 7 seed Villanova or No. 10 seed Santa Clara.

If the Spartans were to reach the second weekend, they would go to Washington, D.C. The most likely Sweet 16 opponent there would be third-seeded Alabama. Duke would likely follow, with that potential game being in the same location as the Spartans' Elite Eight win over the Blue Devils from 2019.

FOX's Projections

Michigan State forward Jaxon Kohler (0) waves at fans during senior day celebration after the game between Michigan State and Rutgers at Breslin Center in East Lansing on Thursday, March 5, 2026. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

FOX Sports' Mike DeCourcy has Michigan State going somewhere else. He also has MSU as a 2 seed, but has the Spartans in the West Region instead. That would send the Spartans to San Jose, Calif., if they were to reach the second weekend of the tourney.

The path to get to that point could get slightly interesting. DeCourcy has Michigan State's first opponent as No. 15 seed Siena, which already sealed up its auto-bid to the NCAA Tournament by winning the MAAC Tournament on Tuesday.

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Following that point, MSU could then face either No. 7 seed Kentucky or No. 10 seed UCF. MSU already took down the Wildcats on a neutral court this year, doing so by the tune of 83-66 during the Champions Classic on Nov. 18.

Arizona is the top seed in the West Region in DeCourcy's projection. The other high seeds worth mentioning are third-seeded Gonzaga and fourth-seeded Purdue.

Michigan State's Tom Izzo shouts instructions out during a game against Michigan at the Breslin Center on Friday, Jan. 30, 2026. | Starr Portice, Michigan State Spartans on SI