3 Predictions for Michigan State's Game at Nebraska
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The mark of a new year means Big Ten play is full go for Michigan State basketball.
There will not be any easing in here: ninth-ranked MSU's first game of the 2026 calendar year is a massive road test against undefeated, No. 13 Nebraska. Friday night's game (9 p.m. ET on Peacock) will be a true test to see how the Spartans handle a hostile environment against a quality opponent. That's something they haven't gone through yet.
Considering the Cornhuskers to be a "quality opponent" has traditionally not been the case. Michigan State is 15-4 against Nebraska since the Cornhuskers joined the Big Ten and has won 12 of the last 13 overall meetings. Nebraska hasn't won a single NCAA Tournament game in the history of its program; MSU has 76 victories.
Michigan State is the traditional power looking to maintain the status quo, while Nebraska is the interesting, up-and-coming program. Here are some of my personal predictions for how the game will go.
Early Nebraska Run
MSU has not played in an atmosphere like this one this season yet. If there has ever been one adjective used to describe Nebraska fans, it's been loyal. Cornhusker basketball hasn't necessarily given its fans a ton to cheer about over the years, but Lincoln has not been considered an easy place to get a victory.
"I have a lot of respect for their fans, because they have grown some, but that place was sold out when they weren't very good," Michigan State's Tom Izzo said Wednesday.
I think it's going to take the Spartans a second to truly adjust. An early Nebraska run probably won't instantly make the game feel out of reach, but it will probably lead to the home fans feeling good at the under-16 and under-12 timeouts in the first half.
What also makes me think this is the start of the Cornell game. MSU was sleepy out of the gate on Monday after holiday break, allowing the Big Red to start on a 15-4 run.
MSU Commands Glass Again
Michigan State is one of the best rebounding teams in the country. The Spartans average 13.7 more rebounds per game than their opponents, which is the sixth-best mark in the country. MSU holds a top-10 offensive and rebounding percentage nationally, per KenPom.
Nebraska, on the other hand, is down at 160th, averaging just a plus-2.9 rebounding margin. The Cornhuskers are not the biggest or smallest team in the country, but neither are the Spartans. Nebraska's defensive rebounding percentage is 70th, according to KenPom. Its offensive rebounding percentage is way down at 248th.
Lots of Three-Point Tries for MSU
The Spartans have found a groove from beyond the arc. MSU really struggled with three-point shooting early in the season, but has now made almost 43% of its attempts from deep in its last four games.
Nebraska's perimeter defense is a good one. The Cornhuskers' opponents shoot 29.7% from three-point land this season (48th nationally). What is interesting is 51.6% of the shots Nebraska's defense sees go up are three-pointers, which is the fourth-highest number in college basketball. Only 34.5% of MSU's shot attempts are from three, so it will be interesting to see where that ratio stands on Friday.
Score Prediction: Michigan State 74, Nebraska 70
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A 2025 graduate from Michigan State University, Cotsonika brings a wealth of experience covering the Spartans from Rivals and On3 to his role as Michigan State Spartans Beat Writer on SI. At Michigan State, he was also a member of the world-renowned Spartan marching band for two seasons.
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