Previewing, Predicting MSU's Senior Night Date With Rutgers
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No. 8 Michigan State is carrying as much momentum as it has had all season long into its final home game.
The Spartans (24-5 overall, 14-4 Big Ten) have now won four in a row ever since they got boat-raced by Wisconsin on Feb. 13. They’ve especially looked strong in their last two games, taking down then-No. 8 Purdue in Mackey Arena for the first time in a dozen years and then beating Indiana at Assembly Hall by 13 points.
Next up is a can’t-lose game against Rutgers (12-17, 5-13) on Thursday for Senior Night — MSU doesn’t really get any NCAA Tournament resume points for winning, but it can lose a lot for losing. On the plus side, Michigan State has won its final home game of the season 13 straight times.
A triple-bye to the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals gets clinched if the Spartans win this one. Here are a couple of other things to know about this matchup between two programs on very different ends of the conference standings.
Nail-Biting First Meeting
Michigan State probably should have lost when it faced Rutgers in Piscataway in January. The Scarlet Knights were ahead virtually the entire time, and MSU’s chance of victory had dwindled from 94.0% pregame to 15.3% in the final minute, according to KenPom.
It required some missed RU free throws and a Divine Ugochukwu three-pointer with 11 seconds left to force overtime. The Spartans then took those additional five minutes over, outscoring Rutgers, 15-6.
“Rutgers was the one team that played us as good or better than any of the teams we’re playing,” Tom Izzo said on Tuesday. “We earned it at the end out there, but they probably deserved to beat us.”
Losing that game would have had ramifications felt right now. Michigan State is firmly in the discussion for a 2 seed now, but dropping a Quad 3 game (even on the road) would be particularly damaging.
Only three teams in the top 25 of the NET rankings have a Q3 loss, and that type of defeat, assuming the rest of MSU’s season played out the same way, would likely have the Spartans on the 3 or the 4 line in most NCAA tourney projections instead.
This home game is classified as a Quad 3 game as well, but just barely. If the Scarlet Knights slip just three spots down to 161st, or worse, the game reaches Quad 4 territory, which can definitely happen if Michigan State were to win this game by enough points.
For additional reference, N.C. State is the highest-ranked team in the NET with a Q4 loss at 29th (it lost to No. 169 Georgia Tech at home on Jan. 17).
Even though all the metrics say that the result of this game should be decided well before the final buzzer, that tricky first meeting is a slightly grey cloud over an otherwise pretty blue sky. Izzo recognizes this isn’t necessarily the same challenge as No. 3 Michigan will be on Sunday, but he also thinks RU plays a certain play style that doesn’t align with its record.
“I told my team [Tuesday] morning, this will be the toughest team we’ve played all year,” Izzo said. “I didn’t say the best team. I didn’t even say the most competitive or skilled team. But as far as street-smart toughness, as far as smash-mouth toughness, I love this team. It reminds me of the [Mateen] Cleaves’ team we had.”
Limiting Turnovers
The best way for Michigan State to quickly take care of business on Thursday night is to take care of the ball. It can dominate the glass (the Spartans were plus-23 on rebounds in the first meeting), and chances are that RU won’t hit as many tough shots as it did back on Jan. 27, but a huge reason why MSU was behind nearly the entire time is the turnovers. Rutgers was plus-10 in that category last time, forcing the Spartans to give it up 15 times to its five.
When Michigan State takes care of the basketball, it’s a tough team to beat. It’s been one of the Spartans’ biggest issues all season. Their turnover rate of 18.0% during conference play is 15th in the Big Ten, but MSU had been dead last for a fair amount of time recently.
During those big wins against Purdue and Indiana, Michigan State was in the single digits both times, only giving it up six times at Mackey and nine times at Assembly Hall. That’s about the number where it needs to be sitting.
Really, though, MSU truly should blow the Scarlet Knights out of the water here. One team is much, much better than the other, is playing its best basketball at the right time, and is going to floor the gas pedal again to ensure its seniors finish their Breslin Center careers with a win. It’s not Rutgers. Oh, and RU has never won in East Lansing before.
Final Prediction: No. 8 MSU 83, Rutgers 61
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A 2025 graduate from Michigan State University, Cotsonika brings a wealth of experience covering the Spartans from Rivals and On3 to his role as Michigan State Spartans Beat Writer on SI. At Michigan State, he was also a member of the world-renowned Spartan marching band for two seasons.
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