Why Offensive Improvements Key for MSU Hoops' Natty Hopes

Michigan State has to get better on the offensive end if it wants to achieve its ultimate goal.

Tom Izzo is a pretty defensive-minded coach, but trends and history show that teams have to be elite on both ends of the court to win the NCAA Tournament. MSU has had teams that have been great on one end of the court pretty recently, but not both.

Recent History of Champions

Michigan State's Tom Izzo yells at a referee about a call made during a game against Northwestern at the Breslin Center on Thursday, Jan. 8, 2026. | Starr Portice, Michigan State Spartans on SI

The last 10 national champions have finished their title runs ranked no worse than ninth in adjusted offensive efficiency at KenPom. There is the phrase "defense wins championships," but in that span, four different teams have won it all with defenses outside the top 10 -- Baylor won the title with the No. 22-ranked defense in 2021, and then Kansas won it in 2022 with a defense that finished ranked No. 17.

UConn in 2014 was the last team to win a national title without a top-10 offense. The Huskies' offense finished down at 39th, but that was largely an anomaly of a run by a 7-seed. KenPom's data goes back to 1996-97, and during that time, all but four national champions, including 1999-2000 MSU, had a top-10 offense. Eleven champions didn't have a top-10 defense.

Michigan State's Tom Izzo gives instructions to his team during a game against Rutgers on Thursday, March 5, 2026, at the Breslin Center. | Starr Portice, Michigan State Spartans on SI

Michigan State hasn't operated at that level on offense for a few seasons now. The Spartans have finished in the top 10 on offense at KenPom twice in the last 10 seasons -- finishing fifth in 2019 and 10th in 2020. Those two teams are probably the best-constructed teams that Izzo has had since he made three straight Final Fours from 1999-2001.

That's because MSU had elite offenses and defenses those two years. The 2019 team's defense finished ranked ninth, and the 2020 team's defense finished 13th. Recent history has shown that those two teams were capable of winning a national championship, which is why COVID cancelling Cassius Winston's senior postseason run is still a painful memory for Spartan fans.

Michigan State's Tom Izzo smiles from the bench during a game against Maryland at the Breslin Center on Saturday, Jan. 24, 2026. | Starr Portice, Michigan State Spartans on SI

The numbers since then haven't been good enough, though. Last season's offense finished with the highest KenPom ranking since COVID, but that was down at 23rd. The five seasons before that, Michigan State's offense ranked 98th in 2020-21, 31st, 27th, 49th, and then 25th.

History shows you can't rely on just defense getting you to six straight victories in March and April. The odds indicate that a team will slump on one side of the court at some point, especially when most opponents are unfamiliar and perhaps on one day's prep. That's when teams can lean on being elite or at least pretty good on the other end to find their way to a win.

Michigan State coach Tom Izzo lays into Michigan State guard Trey Fort (9) during a time out in the first half of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball East Regional game against UConn at Capital One Arena in Washington DC on Friday, March 27, 2026. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Just look at the Final Four in 2000. MSU gave up 76 points to Florida in the title game -- it was actually the fourth-most points allowed in a regulation game by the Spartans all season, as well as the most in a win. Michigan State's offense ranked second in the country that year on KenPom, though, and it dropped 89 points to win comfortably.

It was completely different from the Spartans' matchup with Wisconsin in the national semifinal. That was a 53-41 final score. MSU's offense wasn't exactly clicking against the Badgers' elite defense, but the Spartans' defense wound up fourth in the country, too. One side of the court can win a team a game, but both ends are needed to win a tournament.

How MSU Can Rise

Michigan State's Jeremy Fears Jr. hunches over during a game against Michigan at the Breslin Center on Friday, Jan. 30, 2026. | Starr Portice, Michigan State Spartans on SI

Michigan State has the personnel to expect an improved offense this coming season. A big reason for that is the additions the Spartans have made in their backcourt on the recruiting trail. One of the biggest weaknesses last year was an overreliance on Jeremy Fears Jr., who averaged 15.2 points and 9.4 assists and consistently needed to deliver big performances to keep MSU afloat later in the season.

Jasiah Jervis and Carlos Medlock Jr. are a big part of that solution. Both of them are offensively versatile guards who can score at will. Medlock will be a nice change of pace for the Spartans at point guard whenever Fears needs a break, and Jervis is an all-around offensive force who may not need more than one year in college.

Getting Kaleb Glenn back is another big part of the overall outlook. He averaged 12.6 points per game in 2024-25 at Florida Atlantic, shooting 41% from deep, but he missed the entirety of his first season at Michigan State with a knee injury. He's another versatile offensive option who can play either small forward or power forward.

Everyone has a role to play, with strengths and weaknesses, but it feels like there are fewer "specialists" on offense for MSU. Led by an elite point guard and facilitator, the Spartans have shooting, size, ball-handling, and offensive rebounding. There is a bit of everything. If it all clicks, a title-caliber offense is very much a possibility.

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