Gophers' Big Ten Tournament Seeding Scenarios Entering Final Week

Minnesota has plenty to play for entering the final week of the regular season.

Oregon guard Takai Simpkins, left, and Minnesota forward Bobby Durkin dives after the ball as the Oregon Ducks host the Minnesota Golden Gophers on Feb. 17, 2026, at Matthew Knight Arena in Eugene, Oregon. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

If the regular season ended today, Minnesota would be the 12-seed in next week's Big Ten tournament in Chicago. But there is still one week left of games, and plenty more seeding scenarios. Let's break down the Gophers' seeding scenarios.

After Saturday's win over UCLA, Minnesota officially avoided Tuesday's first round. They can climb as high as the 10-seed, and fall as low as the 14-seed with games remaining at Indiana, and against Northwestern at home.

Current Big Ten standings

Big Ten standings as of March 3. | Picture via: ESPN

Indiana, USC, Minnesota and Washington are essentially battling for the 10, 11, 12 and 13 seeds. There are some unlikely scenarios where Minnesota could fall to the 14 seed.

10 seed scenario

The Gophers' path to claiming the 10 seed in much easier than you might think. If they beat Indiana and Northwestern, and USC loses at least one of its final two games against UCLA or Washington, they will be the 10-seed.

Minnesota is currently one game up on Washington in the Big Ten standings, and it would own the tie-breaker with Indiana in this scenario. USC owns the head-to-head tie-breaker, so Minnesota would need to see the Trojans lose at least once.

11 seed scenario

If Minnesota and USC win out, the Gophers would be the 11 seed and the Trojans would be the 10 seed. The Gophers could also lose to Indiana, Washington would have to beat USC, then USC and Washington would have to lose their final games.

12 seed scenario

The 12 seed is probably the Gophers' most likely outcome. Indiana is currently battling for an NCAA Tournament at-large invitation, and ESPN's matchup predictor gives the Gophers a 20.8% chance to win that game on the road. If all the favorites win, Minnesota will be a 12 seed. That means Washington beating USC at home and Minnesota beating Northwestern at home. Indiana's final game against Ohio State would not matter in this hypothetical.

Projected Big Ten tournament bracket if all the favorites win. | Picture via: bball.notnothing.net

13 seed scenario

If Minnesota loses its final two games, it will likely be the 13 seed in the Big Ten tournament. With a 7-13 conference record in this scenario, they wouldn't have a chance of jumping USC or Indiana. Their only chance of getting the 12 seed with two more losses would be if Washington also lost out, since the Huskies are currently one game behind in the standings.

14 seed scenario

This scenario is by far the most unlikely. Minnesota would obviously have to lose out, and then chaos would need to ensue. I'll be honest, I don't know exactly how the Gophers would fall that far, but every analytical model says it's possible. Washington, USC and Indiana would all finish above their 7-13 conference record due to tie-breakers. I am struggling to find how Rutgers or Northwestern could surpass the Gophers, due to their success against the top of the conference. Ultimately, it's unlikely, but not impossible. I guess.