Analytical rankings outlook: Could Minnesota be favored in nine games?

The Gophers will face six top 50 opponents based on Bill Connelly's final SP+ preseason rankings.

Nov 9, 2024; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights head coach Greg Schiano, left, talks with Minnesota Golden Gophers head coach P.J. Fleck before the game at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

ESPN college football writer Bill Connelly's SP+ rankings have become one of the most well-respected ways to rank every FBS team analytically. Most traditional rankings only list the top 25 teams, but this list helps you understand the entire outlook of the sport.

Connelly released his final preseason rankings on Thursday, and Minnesota came in at No. 40, which has been pretty consistent since the spring. Let's dissect the rankings of every team on their schedule.

Minnesota's 2025 oponents (SP+ ranking)

• Ohio State (No. 1)
• Oregon (No. 7)
• Iowa (No. 25)
• Nebraska (No. 32)
• Wisconsin (No. 38)
• Rutgers (No. 47)
• California (No. 64)
• Michigan State (No. 65)
• Northwestern (No. 86)
• Buffalo (No. 94)
• Purdue (No. 100)
• Northwestern State (n/a)

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My biggest takeaway from the rankings is that Minnesota will face only five teams currently ranked higher than them in 2025. Since games against Ohio State, Oregon and Iowa come on the road, they will likely be underdogs in those matchups. But it's entirely reasonable to think they could be betting favorites against Nebraska and Wisconsin at home, due to both teams being very close in rankings.

Mar 1, 2025; Lincoln, Nebraska, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers football coach Matt Rhule watches the game between the Nebraska Cornhuskers and the Minnesota Golden Gophers during the first half at Pinnacle Bank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steven Branscombe-Imagn Images | Steven Branscombe-Imagn Images

If the Gophers start the season on the right foot against Buffalo and Northwestern State, they could wind up being betting favorites in nine of the 12 games on their schedule. That's obviously a lot of assumptions to make, but it emphasizes the opportunity Minnesota has with a favorable list of 2025 opponents.

Fortunately for everyone, results are determined on the field, and preseason rankings ultimately mean very little, but it does help you understand this opportunity Minnesota has to make serious noise this season. They avoid Big Ten opponents such as Penn State, Michigan, USC, Indiana, Illinois and Washington, which all rank higher on Connelly's rankings. Their schedule is undoubtedly favorable in 2025.