Gophers drop in SP+ analytical ranking after spring practice

Minnesota still projects as a top 40 team heading into the season.

Nov 23, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Golden Gophers tight end Jameson Geers (86) celebrates his touchdown against the Penn State Nittany Lions during the second quarter at Huntington Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-Imagn Images | Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

ESPN writer Bill Connelly's SP+ has become the most well-respected analytical rankings in college football. With spring football and the spring transfer portal in the rearview, he released an updated list, and the Gophers have dropped three spots since late February.

Minnesota debuted at No. 37 in Connelly's first rankings back in February, but they've since dropped to No. 40 after the spring period. His rankings are based on returning production, recent recruiting and recent history, so Minnesota's uncertainty at quarterback is likely a big reason for the drop. Having a projected quarterback with zero career starts will hurt any team's standing in an analytical model.

They were notably four spots ahead of Wisconsin in the initial list, but they're now three spots behind them. There are now nine teams that rank ahead of the Gophers; Ohio State (1), Penn State (3), Oregon (7), Michigan (10), Illinois (19), Indiana (23), Iowa (28), USC (30), Nebraska (34) and Wisconsin (37).

Related: 5 potential breakout candidates for Gophers football in 2025

The Gophers' offense dropped from No. 98 to No. 100, and their defense also fell from No. 11 to No. 14. With a projected win total of 6.5, the consensus seems to view Minnesota as a middle-of-the-pack Big Ten team heading into 2025.

The success of redshirt freshman quarterback Drake Lindsey will be what determines this team's ceiling. There are more than enough pieces around him, such as Darius Taylor and Javon Tracy on offense, and a strong defense led by Koi Perich and Anthony Smith.

If Lindsey hits his high-end potential, Minnesota could quickly climb up the standings in the Big Ten. The Gophers are one of the most high-variance teams in the conference, and a new QB is the main reason why.