Opinion: Mississippi State Baseball is at a Crossroad: Which way will it go?

What direction will this team go as they are halfway through conference play?

Mississippi State baseball this season has been confusing, but this past weekend was a defining moment for this team. MSU has dominated the rivalry series with Ole Miss for almost a decade, and this was their first series loss to the Rebels since 2015.

The Ole Miss program is no slouch, as they are consistently a top-ten team alongside the Bulldogs. So, this is not a case of dominating a far inferior opponent; they have had just their rivals' number.

However, the streak ended this weekend, and the Rebels are a lousy baseball team. Credit to them for winning the series, but they are not a good team.

This begs the question of whether Mississippi State is a good team. They have played well sometimes, but their once daunting schedule does not look great in hindsight.

The Bulldogs took the series over LSU, a top-five team at the time, and they have bottomed out, sitting at 3-12 in the conference. A series they could have easily swept at Florida seemed like a positive sign, but the Gators have also proven they were vastly overrated.

The Bulldogs had a real chance to keep stacking wins and building momentum for their postseason push, but they failed to show up in the series finale against Ole Miss. That has made the back half of the conference schedule even more critical, and MSU gets a couple of favorable matchups and a pair of challenging ones.

This weekend, they take on Auburn at home, and the Tigers are struggling as they sit at 2-3 in conference play. Another favorable matchup is when they host Missouri, which sits at 5-10 in conference play.

The Bulldogs must be at least 4-2 in that stretch because they also travel to Vanderbilt and Arkansas. The Razorbacks are one of the top teams in the country, and MSU has not taken a series over the Razorbacks since 2018.

The swing series is when they host Alabama. The Tide are 6-9 in conference play, just one game back of the Bulldogs. If MSU can take all their home series over this stretch, they will sit at 13 conference wins.

However, 13 conference wins would not guarantee them a spot in a regional due to their poor play in the non-conference schedule. The magic number is 15 conference wins, and no SEC team has been left out of the field with at least 15 wins.

MSU must sweep a series at home or take a game on the road at Fayetteville and Nashville. Can the Bulldogs do it? Sure.

Will they do it? Unlikely. This polarizing team sometimes looks like a top-25 team, but this weekend exposed many of their weaknesses.

This is a tough team, but they can only take so many gut punches before they start to fold. For the past three years, this coaching staff has shown nothing to suggest that this team will make a run at the end of the season.

This weekend against Auburn will bring a lot of clarity because the Bulldogs need a sweep, but realistically, a series win will do. If they drop the series this weekend, do not expect the Bulldogs to make a regional.