Mississippi State vs LSU SEC Tournament Preview & Prediction: Can the Bulldogs Flip the Switch?

Enough is enough. Mississippi State has to start playing well, and LSU has to stay alive. Here's our preview and prediction for the SEC First Round matchup.

Mar 1, 2025; Starkville, Mississippi, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs guard Josh Hubbard (12) drives to the basket against LSU Tigers guard Cam Carter (5) during the second half at Humphrey Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Wesley Hale-Imagn Images / Wesley Hale-Imagn Images

Mississippi State vs LSU Game Preview

Mississippi State is fine. It's going to be in the NCAA Tournament, it'll have its chance to go on a run when it really matters, and all the drama and inconsistency of the SEC season won't matter a lick if it wins two games next week.

But WOW does this team need some positive vibes.

It lost four of its last five games, it can't close, and the defense has gone bye-bye. Now is the time to flip the switch and start playing up to its talent level. Oh, that one win in the gloom of the last few weeks?

LSU.

The Tigers have lost five straightand ten of their last 12. This truly is a win-or-season-over scenario. The have to win the SEC title to go to the NCAA Tournament.

Mississippi State vs LSU: How to Watch

Date: March 12, 2025
Venue: Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN
TV: SEC Network, 7:00 pm
Records: Mississippi State (20-11), LSU (14-17)

Why LSU Will Win

LSU, crank up the tempo and pace however you're able to do it.

Mississippi State is more than capable of keeping up, but it has a strange way of not coming through in the clutch, the three-point defense has been missing, and don't make me go through the stats again about how the program is 0-for-the-last-several-years when allowing more than 84 points.

How bad is this? Mississippi State 333rd in the nation in three point defense, the D as a whole has allowed 48% or more shots being made in four of the last five games, and ...

Why Mississippi State Will Win

The LSU offense is awful.

Take a guess who that one team was over the last five games that had a bad shooting night against the Bulldog defense.

LSU is miserable from three, it turns the ball over way too much, and its defense is awful allowing teams to hit 50% or better i two of the last three games and 40% or better in 13 of the last 14.

To keep hammering this home, Mississippi State needs to keep the score down a bit. LSU has only scored more than 80 twice in SEC play, but ...

LSU vs Mississippi State Prediction

LSU wins when it scores.

It's 13-0 this season when scoring 76 points or more, 0-16 when scoring fewer, and Mississippi State has allowed more than 76 points in four of its last five games.

But those were against the SEC teams with some pop and firepower. The Bulldog D will step up the intensity and clamp down fast. It won't be quite as easy as the 81-69 win a few weeks ago, but finally, MSU will get a win again.

Prediction: Mississippi State 77, LSU 68

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