Missouri vs Mississippi State Prediction & Preview: SEC Tournament Second Round

Missouri walloped Mississippi State in the regular season meeting. Now it really does mean more.

Feb 1, 2025; Starkville, Mississippi, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs guard Josh Hubbard (12) drives to the basket against Missouri Tigers guard Annor Boateng (6) during the second half at Humphrey Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Wesley Hale-Imagn Images / Wesley Hale-Imagn Images

Missouri vs Mississippi State Game Preview

Now things are a little different.

When these two first met on February 1st, Missouri was on a roll winning six of its previous seven games. The offense was humming, it looked like it was about to be a threat to the SEC powerhouses, and wow did it look the part in a dominant 88-61 win over Mississippi State in Starkville.

It got a first round bye in the SEC Tournament, but it's limping with three straight losses, four defeats in the last five games, and now it gets a Mississippi State team that throttled LSU on Wednesday.

The winner gets Florida in the Quarterfinals on Friday.

Missouri vs Mississippi State: How to Watch

Date: March 13, 2025
Venue: Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN
TV: SEC Network, 7:00 pm
Records: Mississippi State (21-11), Missouri (21-10)

Why Missouri Will Win

Missouri scores. A lot. A whole lot, and in a variety of ways.

It's hard to standout offensively in the SEC, but the Tigers average clsoe to 85 points per. game, and they do it on the move, by making the extra pass enough to come up with easy scores, from the outside, and on the free throw line, and at the concession stand, and from the parking lot ...

This team knows how to crank up the offense, and that's a problem for this Mississippi State team.

(I've only mentioned this about ten-gajillion times, so forgive me for the repeat info.) Of course, most teams have a problem when giving up a ton of points, but that's the cost of doing business in the SEC this year - you have to be able to win 93-89 games once in a while.

Mississippi State can't do that. The team is 0-for-the-season - nine games - when allowing more than 84 points, and is 2-10 when giving up 80 or more.

Missouri has scored fewer than 80 points once in the last 13 games, and pumped in 84 or more in six of the last seven. But ...

Why Mississippi State Will Win

The Missouri defense has gone bye-bye.

This isn't like the Alabama defense that gives up a ton of points, but that's partly because of the flow of its games - it clamps down when it really has to. No, Missouri can't seem to stop anything lately.

And it's not like it's getting wiped up by the Bamas and Auburns and Floridas - on the contrary, it beat the Tide 110-98 before this rough five game stretch started. it's getting hit hard by everyone.

The Tiger defense was solid for most of the season, but it picked the wrong time for this to start fizzling. It's getting killed on the offensive glass, allowed teams to shoot 50% or better in five of the last seven games, and Mississippi State has to take advantage of all of that.

Josh Hubbard is coming off a brilliant 26-point day against LSU, the offense can be balanced when needed, but ...

Missouri vs Mississippi State Prediction

Can the Mississippi State keep up the intensity shown against LSU in the first round?

Missouri can score, but when it's struggling from the field, it loses. The team is 0-7 when hitting fewer than 44% of its shots, and the Mississippi State defense on the season holds teams to 43.9% from the field.

LSU only made 39% of its shots in the 91-62 loss.

But this one will be a fun back-and-forth fight. There will be plenty of mood swings, lots of runs, and ...

Not enough scoring. Mississippi State will keep a struggling Mizzou under the 80 mark.

Prediction: Mississippi State 82, Missouri 78

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