Early odds, projections for Mississippi State vs. Wake Forest in Duke's Mayo Bowl

For the first time in more than two months, the Bulldogs will enter a game with the odds in their favor.

Mississippi State wide receiver Brenen Thompson (0) looks to the sky before a college football game between Mississippi State and Ole Miss at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, Miss., on Friday, Nov. 28, 2025. Ole Miss defeated Mississippi State 38-19 in the Egg Bowl. | Ayrton Breckenridge/Clarion Ledger / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Mississippi State fans got an early Christmas gift Sunday when the Duke’s Mayo Bowl invited the Bulldogs for one more game.

With two Big 12 schools and Notre Dame declining their bowl invitations, Mississippi State’s Academic Progress Rate (APR) was high enough to be chosen for a bowl game despite having only five wins.

The Bulldogs will face Wake Forest for the right to douse the winning team’s head coach in mayonnaise on January 2. First question at Jeff Lebby’s next press conference should be if he’s a Miracle Whip or mayo person.

2011 Music City Bowl

Mississippi State Bulldogs running back Vick Ballard (28) runs with the ball against the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Davis Wade Stadium. | Chuck Cook-Imagn Images

This will be the second time Mississippi State and Wake Forest meet on the gridiron. The only other time they played was in the 2011 Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl.

Mississippi State won 23-17 on the strength of senior Vick Ballard’s career-best rushing day. Ballard ran for 180 yards and two touchdowns in his final collegiate game.

From the school’s recap story of the bowl game, “Ballard deserves a bulk of the credit for MSU's latest achievement.

“His play was critical, as the Bulldogs (7-6) had to overcome an early deficit and four turnovers, including his own fumble in the first quarter.

“However, he made amends by breaking free down the sidelines for a 60-yard scoring scamper with 34 seconds left in the opening quarter to even the game at 7-apiece after the Demon Deacons had scored on a 14-yard run by Brandon Pendergrass.”

Lucky Bulldogs

Mississippi State was fourth in line, reportedly, amongst five loss teams with the highest APR. When Kansas State and Iowa State announced they had declined bowl invitations, the Bulldogs were behind Rice, Auburn and UCF.

Auburn, technically, doesn’t have a head coach. Its new head coach is preparing for South Florida’s bowl game. So, the Tigers weren’t going to accept an invitation.

Then Notre Dame announced it wouldn’t go to a bowl game after being excluded from the College Football Playoff.

Just like that, Mississippi State was in.

Things like this reinforce the “anything can happen” cliché and the Bulldogs should consider themselves very lucky to be playing one more game.

It’ll be great experience for players returning next season (i.e., Kamario Taylor) and be a great sendoff for seniors like Brenen Thompson, Brylan Lanier, Jahron Manning, Nic Mitchell and many others.

And for the first time since the week of the game against Northern Illinois, Mississippi State is favored to win.

How to watch Duke’s Mayo Bowl

• Who: Wake Forest Demon Deacons (8-4, 4-4 ACC) vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-7, 1-7 SEC)
• When: 7 p.m., January 2
• Where: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, N.C.
• TV: ESPN
• Radio: Live Radio
• Stats: Live Stats
• Series History: Mississippi State leads the all-time series 1-0
• Last Meeting: Mississippi State 23, Wake Forest 17 (December 30, 2011)
• Last time out, Bulldogs: lost to No. 6 Ole Miss, 38-19
• Last time out, Demon Deacons: lost to Duke, 49-32

SP+ Projection

• Projected Winner: Wake Forest
• Projected Margin: 0.6
• Win Probability: 52 percent
• Projected Score: 27-26

Odds, Spread, Totals

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

Wake Forest: +3.5 (-120)
Mississippi State: -3.5 (-102)

Moneyline

Wake Forest: +128
Mississippi State: -154

Total

Over: 56.5 (-110)
Under: 56.5 (-110)