Cowbell Corner

Expert computer model reveals prediction for No. 22 Texas at Mississippi State

The Bulldogs will try and end a three-game losing streak against the preseason No. 1 overall team that hasn't lived up to the hype.
Taylor Hodges|
Florida Gators defensive back Alfonzo Allen Jr. (43) tackles Mississippi State Bulldogs running back Davon Booth (6) during the first half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.
Florida Gators defensive back Alfonzo Allen Jr. (43) tackles Mississippi State Bulldogs running back Davon Booth (6) during the first half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. | Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

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Mississippi State BulldogsTexas Longhorns

Mississippi State’s three-game losing streak has been especially hard since the Bulldogs had opportunities to win at least two of those games.

But now the Bulldogs will try and end the losing streak and get coach Jeff Lebby’s first SEC win on Saturday when No. 22 Texas rolls into Davis Wade Stadium.

“(SEC wins) are out there in front of us,” Lebby said on Monday. “Our guys understand that. As we got back in the building this morning and watched the tape, we've got all kinds of opportunities to come out on the right side, and again, we don't. It's time to take that step for us.

“We got a great opponent coming in here with a great staff, and there's been great stability on both sides of the ball and special teams there for a long time since (Texas coach Steve Sarkisian) been there. He's had the same guys, and again, a credit to him because of how he's built it. But we're ready to go win a football game, and our guys are working towards it.”

The Longhorns are favored to win, a trend for Mississippi State that won’t change this season, but the odds have gotten tighter.

FanDuel Sportsbook’s spread for the Bulldogs and Longhorns dropped two points to 7.5 on Tuesday.

The reason for the smaller spread could be any number of things, but is usually done in reaction to bets being heavily placed on one team.

We may see the spread continue to decrease, but unless half of the Longhorns’ defense ends up injured the Bulldog won’t be favored.

Game Information

  • Who: No. 22 Texas Longhorns (5-2, 2-1 SEC) at Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-3, 0-3 SEC)
  • When: 3:15 p.m., Saturday
  • Where: Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, Miss.
  • TV: SEC Network
  • Radio: Live Radio
  • Stats: Live Stats
  • Series History: Texas leads the all-time series 3-2
  • Last Meeting: Texas 35, Mississippi State 13 (September 28, 2024)
  • Last time out, Bulldogs: lost to Florida, 23-21
  • Last time out, Longhorns: def. Kentucky, 16-13 OT

Odds, Spread and Totals

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

Texas: -7.5 (-102)
Mississippi State: +7.5 (-120)

Moneyline

Texas: -280
Mississippi State: +225

Total

Over: 44.5 (-115)
Under: 44.5 (-105)

SP+ Prediction

Projected winner: Texas
Projected margin: 7.2
Win probability: 67%
Projected score: 27-20

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Taylor Hodges
TAYLOR HODGES

Award-winning sports editor, writer, columnist, and photographer with 15 years’ experience offering his opinion and insight about the sports world in Mississippi and Texas, but he was taken to Razorback pep rallies at Billy Bob's Texas in Fort Worth before he could walk. Taylor has covered all levels of sports, from small high schools in the Mississippi Delta to NFL games. Follow Taylor on Twitter and Facebook.

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