How Mississippi State's loss impacts its chances of reaching bowl eligibility

Many of the Bulldogs' fans will believe their team should already have six wins, if not more, but they don't. And the road ahead won't be easy.

Texas Longhorns wide receiver Emmett Mosley V (3) catches the ball for a touchdown as Mississippi State Bulldogs defensive back DeAgo Brumfield (4) defends during the fourth quarter at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. | Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

Mississippi State’s path to six wins and bowl eligibility was already a difficult task. It’s going to be harder after losing in overtime to No. 22 Texas, 45-38.

Before Saturday’s game, the Bulldogs’ chances at reaching bowl eligibility was at 34.1 percent. After a second-straight heart-breaking loss, their chances are now 29.5 percent.

It’s not a huge drop, but illustrates the problem facing Mississippi State: where could the two wins come from?

Here’s the updated win probabilities, according to ESPN’s matchup predictor, for the rest of Mississippi State’s season (last week’s percentages in parentheses):

• at Arkansas: 40 percent (36.1)
• No. 5 Georgia: 18.4 percent (17.3)
• at No. 15 Missouri: 22.1 percent (19.4)
• No. 8 Ole Miss: 26.1 percent (26.3)

The Bulldogs’ Football Power Index ranking actually increased by three spots, which explains why most of the chances increased.

Arkansas has been a leading candidate for Mississippi State to get a SEC win all season long and now is a must-win game for the Bulldogs.

Not just to reach the goal of winning six games and going to a bowl game, but also to settle a fan base that is spending a second-straight Sunday wondering how their team last a game it should’ve won.

“Incredibly disappointing, frustrating to say the least,” Mississippi State coach Jeff Lebby said. “Our guys played incredibly hard. We were ready to play, didn’t play great early and then found ways to respond. But we got to finish the game and we got to finish the game and go win. Our guys understand that and we’re going to have to get our ass back to work, pick ourselves up off the mat and go.”

The fan base is making its frustrations known, again, and the best medicine for everyone is a win.

The Razorbacks just lost to Auburn, who had lost four-straight games itself and looked like it might fire its coach, too. They have an interim coach and are also winless in SEC games.

“We’re going to wake up (Sunday) morning, tee it up next Saturday in Fayetteville,” Lebby said. “For our guys, there is one way this gets fixed and that’s us being together. We’re going to find out what kind of foundation we have as we go on the road to play another really good football team.”

Despite that, Arkansas is still favored to win the game. Check out the opening lines for next Saturday’s game in Fayetteville below.

Odds, Spread and Totals

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

Mississippi State: +4.5 (-118)
Arkansas: -4.5 (-104)

Moneyline

Mississippi State: +142
Arkansas: -172

Total

Over: 65.5 (-115)
Under: 65.5 (-105)