Sorting MSU’s 2026 Opponents from “show up and win” to “pray for a miracle”

The smart, rational football fan would look at Mississippi State’s 2026 football schedule only to start making plans for next fall and not which teams will be beatable.

There’s still an entire offseason to go through, which includes the transfer portal and maybe even more coaching changes. Add in the College Football Playoff and bowl games and teams could look very different next August.

Unfortunately, rational college football fans are a rare breed and this writer definitely doesn’t qualify as one.

So, let’s take a look at the Bulldogs’ 2026 schedule and identify which teams are beatable (coaches love it when we use that term, right?) and which ones aren’t.

The “Show up and you win” Tier

Louisiana-Monroe at Mississippi State, September 5
Tennessee Tech at Mississippi State, November 21

Remember how quickly the fans soured on the 2025 Bulldogs? After a 4-0 start it took about 3-4 losses for fans to begin wondering if Jeff Lebby is the right person for the job.

Lose to ULM in the season-opener and that’s how the 2026 season will start. But, realistically, that’s not going to happen.

The late season game against Tennessee Tech will probably have shortened quarters in the second half.

Mississippi State should win these games on talent alone.

The “Wild Card” Tier

Mississippi State at Minnesota, September 12

What a random opponent, but also a fascinating one.

First off, this is a wild card because of the long distance the Bulldogs will have to travel. Hopefully with it being in September it won’t be too cold and weather won’t impact the game much.

Second, the Golden Gophers finished last season 7-5 with all seven wins coming at home. They’ve been consistent in posting winning records and have won nine or more games three times under PJ Fleck.

The “Maybe winnable SEC games” tier

Mississippi State at South Carolina, September 19
Missouri at Mississippi State, September 26

This back-to-back pairing of games will go a long way to telling us how good (or not) Mississippi State will be. They come early enough in the season and are against teams with a history of not being the cream of the SEC crop.

South Carolina started this season ranked as the fifth-best SEC team and ended near Mississippi State in the final SEC standings. Missouri’s due for a down year.

The “SEC teams with new coaches” tier

Mississippi State at LSU, October 17
Auburn at Mississippi State, November 14

LSU and Auburn both have new coaches (Lane Kiffin and Alex Golesh, respectively) and while their fanbases believe their teams will be great next season, nothing is guaranteed.

The “Why are we rivals?” tier

Vanderbilt at Mississippi State, November 7

No, seriously. Why are the Commodores and Bulldogs annual opponents?

If Vanderbilt is able to continue its recently found success after Diego Pavia leaves, Mississippi State would have a good case for the hardest trio of annual opponents.

The “Egg Bowl” tier

Mississippi State at Ole Miss, November 28

This will always be a tier of its own just because of the rivalry aspect. But it does land on the harder side of the schedule for the Bulldogs.

Ole Miss is about to play in the College Football Playoff and (if it can avoid a Kiffin raid of key players) should be in contention again next year.

The “Pray for a miracle” tier

Alabama at Mississippi State, October 3
Oklahoma at Mississippi State, October 24
Mississippi State at Texas, October 31

Two of these teams are in this year’s CFP and the other was in last year’s (and almost in this one, too).

They’re three of the bluest, blue-blood college football programs and will almost certainly be fielding teams with elite talent.

Of course, Alabama might have to be moved to the “SEC teams with new coaches” tier if something happens to Kalen DeBoer’s job status.