Three reasons Tennessee shouldn’t fear an upset against Mississippi State

Tennessee visits Bulldogs in sold-out SEC clash in Starkville. Here are three reasons Vols don’t need to worry about an upset.

Tennessee Volunteers wide receiver Braylon Staley (14) and wide receiver Mike Matthews (4) celebrate after Matthew’s touchdown against the UAB Blazers during the first quarter at Neyland Stadium. | Randy Sartin-Imagn Images

Mississippi State will have a full house to watch it try and upset No. 15 Tennessee on Saturday.

The university announced the Bulldogs’ first SEC game of the season has been sold out, but don’t expect it be 61,311 Mississippi State fans.

The Volunteers’ fanbase travels well and it won’t be a surprise to a large pocket of orange in the sea of white.

ICYMI: Why Volunteers should be worried about Mississippi State this weekend

And that small group may be the only ones celebrating after Saturday’s game.

Tennessee is favored to beat the Bulldogs and there are some good reasons for that.

Let’s examine some of those reasons that should ease any worries Tennessee might have about facing Mississippi State.

Should’ve beaten the SEC’s other Bulldogs

Tennessee place kicker Max Gilbert (90) holds his helmet in disbelief as Georgia defensive lineman Xzavier McLeod (94) celebrates Gilbert's missed field goal in the final seconds of a college football game between Tennessee and Georgia at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville, Tenn. | Brianna Paciorka/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Tennessee had a chance to beat No. 5 Georgia and, to be blunt, it should have won.

Despite that, the Volunteers hung with one of the nation’s best teams for 60 minutes.

Mississippi State is better than it was a year ago, but it hasn’t shown it’s on the same level as the SEC’s top teams. (Although, this Saturday is its first chance to show that.)

Sacks

ETSU quarterback Jacolby Criswell (6) is tackled by Tennessee defensive lineman Joshua Josephs (19) in an NCAA college football game on September 6, 2025, in Knoxville, Tennessee. | Caitie McMekin/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Tennessee has been excellent at pressuring opposing quarterbacks through four games.

The Volunteers have 15 sacks, which is second-most in the SEC behind only Oklahoma’s 16. They also have 10 QB hurries. Joshua Josephs leads Tennessee with three sacks and two QB hurries and 12 other players have at least a half sack.

Mississippi State has been better this season in pass blocking with only five sacks allowed. But the Bulldogs have yet to face a pass rush this talented and they know it.

“There's constantly pressure on the QB,” Mississippi State coach Jeff Lebby said earlier this week. “What sticks out is how they're getting after the quarterback. And we've got to keep Blake (Shapen) clean to go play the way we want to play.”

They can run the ball

Tennessee running back Star Thomas (9) leaps over UAB safety Sirad Bryant (1) during a NCAA football game between Tennessee and UAB at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville, Tenn., September 20, 2025. | Angelina Alcantar/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Mississippi State made significant improvements in fixing a rushing defense that allowed more than 200 rushing yards per game and five yards per carry.

Through four games, the Bulldogs are holding opponents to just 3.9 yards per carry and 136.5 yards per game.

It’s a great improvement, but they still have a ways to go based on the first four games.

Arizona State’s comeback from a 17-3 deficit was largely due to the Sun Devils’ ability to run the ball effectively in the second half.

Northern Illinois had some success running the ball, picking up 125 yards on 4.6 yards per carry and, after that game, linebacker Nic Mitchell said there’s room for improvement.

“We were thinking about the run all week,” Mitchell said. “They popped a couple (big runs) on us, so we got to clean that up.”

You can expect Tennessee to try and exploit that vulnerability and it has the rushing attack to do it.

The Volunteers are averaging 216.3 yards per game and 5.2 yards per carry. Running back Star Thomas leads the team in rushing with 42 carries for 272 yards (6.5 ypc) and four touchdowns. DeSean Bishop is next with 38 carries for 263 yards (6.9 ypc) and three touchdowns.

Tennessee, similar to Mississippi State, likes to run a fast-paced offense that scores fast. So, the Volunteers will take their shots down field, but may not need to if they’re able to run the ball like they have been.