Three reasons why Missouri will beat Mississippi State this week

The Tigers are not a good matchup for the Bulldogs who are looking for one more win in their final two games to reach bowl eligibility.

Missouri Tigers running back Ahmad Hardy (29) runs the ball during the first half against the Alabama Crimson Tide at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium. | Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

Mississippi State has just two more chances to win a game and reach bowl eligibility.

Of the two remaining opponents, Missouri and No. 6 Ole Miss, it’s the Rebels who appear to be the more realistic opportunity to get that win.

The Tigers (6-3, 2-3) fell out of the top 25 this week after losing to No. 3 Texas A&M and are down to they’re only option at quarterback is true freshman Matt Zollers.

But Missouri still presents itself as a bad matchup for the Bulldogs for multiple reasons that can be summed up as: what Missouri is good at, Mississippi State is not.

In fact, Mississippi State coach Jeff Lebby talked about two of those reasons at his Monday press conference and that’s as good a place as any to start.

Missouri’s Rushing Offense

No team in the SEC runs the ball better than Missouri and only seven other teams in the nation have a higher yards per game average than the Tigers.

The Bulldogs’ run defense ranks 15th in the SEC and 110th in the nation. The last opponents they’ve faced, Arkansas and Georgia, both ran for more than 200 yards and Georgia actually broke the 300-yard mark.

Missouri running back Ahmad Hardy has already broken the 1,000-yard mark (1,046) and has 12 touchdowns. He’s also averaging 6.1 yards per carry.

“Ahmad, the first guy never tackles him,” Lebby said about the Tiger’s running back. “And that's what shows up on tape over and over and over. You try to arm tackle this guy, it's going to be a long day.”

Jamal Roberts is second on Missouri with 538 yards and four touchdowns. He actually has a higher ypc than Hardy with a 6.5 ypc.

“We've got to align and assign with great technique and great eyes,” Lebby said. “And having the ability to strike blocks and get off blocks and create some knockbacks.”

Missouri’s Pass Rush

The Tigers’ defense averages 2.67 sacks per game, which is fifth in the SEC and 18th nationally.

They have 24 total sacks this season, led by Damon Wilson II with six and Zion Young with five, and five others with at least 1.5 sacks.

The Bulldogs’ offensive line is allowing an average of 3.2 sacks per game, which is 14th in the SEC and 127th nationally. Last week, Georgia’s almost-non-existent pass rush (eight sacks before last Saturday) got almost half of its season total, three sacks and multiple QB hits.

One of those hits sent Blake Shapen out of the game and has thrown his status up in the air for this week.

“We've got to find ways to get the ball up and down offensively,” Lebby said. “I mean, we can't sit back there and pat the football all day. We've got to get the ball up and down. That piece will be critical. We've got to be really, really clean fundamentally to give ourselves a chance.”

Speaking of playing clean…

Missouri’s Penalties

Missouri plays clean football. It’s 4.89 penalties per game is the lowest in the SEC and 23rd lowest nationwide. Mississippi State is averaging 7.4 penalties per game, which ranks 12th in the SEC.

It’s not just the Bulldogs are penalized a lot because they’re not. The high average is mostly due to games of 14, 10 and 11 penalties in non-conference play. In the SEC, they haven’t had more than eight.

But the timing of the penalties are what hurts Mississippi State the most.

Go back and look at Lebby’s first answer at his Monday press conference. Or really most of the preceding weeks, too. There are numerous examples.

Against Georgia, Mississippi State’s defense was penalized three times including once on fourth down late in the first half that led to a Georgia touchdown.

“When you're playing as good of a football team as we were playing, we're not good enough to overcome those things,” Lebby said.

Missouri isn’t Georgia and the Tigers might have a few reasons why they’re not going to win this game.

But the above three reasons are hard to look past when trying to figure out how Saturday’s game in Columbia, Mo. will play out.