Would an Egg Bowl win for Mississippi State knock Ole Miss out of the CFP?

There's a lot of drama and noise surrounding a Rebels team on the verge of a trip to the playoffs, which could be to the benefit of the Bulldogs.

Mississippi State Wide Receiver Anthony Evans III (#3) during the game between the Missouri Tigers and the Mississippi State Bulldogs at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium Stadium in Columbia, MO. | Mississippi State Athletics

Mississippi State may be about to catch a very lucky break.

The Bulldogs need one more win to reach bowl eligibility, but only have one game left on the schedule: the annual Battle of the Golden Egg game against instate rival Ole Miss.

The Rebels are ranked No. 6 in the most recent version of the College Football Playoff rankings and have been in “win and you’re in the playoff”-mode for four weeks now.

But recent developments might be enough to give Mississippi State the edge.

Coaching Drama

Any team with Lane Kiffin as its head coach is going to have some drama around it, which isn’t always a bad thing. Right now, though, the drama isn’t helpful.

Kiffin is widely believed to be the first choice for LSU and Florida to fill their vacant head coaching jobs. The speculation has been around since Billy Napier was fired first and then picked up when LSU fired Brian Kelly.

This week, with no game to look forward to, the noise around Kiffin and the will-he-or-won’t-he drama is becoming deafening.

Ole Miss has reportedly asked for a decision from Kiffin by the Egg Bowl next Friday. That was characterized as an ultimatum and Kiffin made an awkward appearance on The Pat MacAfee Show to deny that report.

The report is probably true (a lot of people want Kiffin to decide and end the drama), but it’s a matter of semantics if it was an ultimatum or not.

Mississippi State has already benefitted from a drama-filled Kiffin-coaching search in 2022. That was when Kiffin was halfway to becoming Auburn’s next coach and Ole Miss lost five games to end the season.

The distraction this time seems much more louder and could see a lackluster Ole Miss team come to Starkville next week.

Motivation

The Bulldogs might be the more motivated team at Davis Wade Stadium on Black Friday.

First, there’s the obvious factors. Bowl eligibility and bringing some of the fan base back. The second things isn’t as obvious.

Could Ole Miss still make the CFP with a loss to Mississippi State?

The answer to that question depends on where you think the Rebels would fall to in the rankings. Specifically, does the committee keep the Rebels in front of Oklahoma (who Ole Miss beat on the road) or not.

Or would a loss to the Bulldogs be too “bad” of a loss and the committee punishes the Rebels more so than Alabama’s loss to Florida State?

If Ole Miss players believe they’re in the CFP no matter the result of the Egg Bowl, how hard would they try?

Fortunately, there’s a weekend of games to play before the Egg Bowl and some of these things will have more clarity.

Or not. You never know in college football.