Preview: Run-heavy Florida poses huge challenge for Mizzou Football

Both teams enter their second straight ranked matchup, with Mizzou coming off a road loss and Florida entering Columbia after a dominant victory.

Sep 26, 2026; Gainesville, Florida, USA; Florida Gators running back Jadan Baugh (13) reacts after a play against the Mississippi Rebels during the first half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Missouri and Florida are meeting each other for the first time since 2023 on Saturday. The matchup, which was a yearly contest for 12 years, comes at a crucial moment for each program. Florida is coming off of an astounding 52-28 victory against No. 4 Ole Miss and has entered the top 10 for the first time since 2021, while the Tigers fell down to the final spot on the AP Top 25 Poll after losing to Mississippi State 31-24.

The loss marked Missouri's eighth straight against ranked SEC opponents, while Florida's victory snapped a four game losing streak against such teams. With the dialogue increasing about Missouri's inability to beat top-tier opponents and on a celebratory homecoming weekend, the timing seems perfect for Missouri to earn a defining victory in the Drinkwitz era.

To do that, Missouri will need to stop an elite running game and a team that hasn't scored lower than 44 points in a game this season. The game kicks off at 2:30 p.m. Saturday on ABC at Faurot Field; here's what to expect in a heavily-anticipated matchup.

An explosive Gators' running game

Sep 26, 2026; Gainesville, Florida, USA; A fan holds a sign supporting Florida Gators running back Jadan Baugh against the Mississippi Rebels during the second half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Florida is the second-highest scoring SEC team with 53.5 points per contest and that has more to do with its running success than anything else. Florida's 1040 rushing yards in four games also ranks second in the SEC and has wreaked havoc on its opponents.

Last week, in the Gators' trouncing of No. 4 Ole Miss, Florida ran for 302 yards and six rushing touchdowns. They attempted just 23 passes and ran the ball an astounding 53 times, replicating the exact numbers posted by Florida a week prior in a 44-39 win over Auburn.

The running back room is led by Jadan Baugh, who leads the country with 11 touchdowns and has added a league-second 600 yards on 83 carries. Missouri head coach Eli Drinkwitz had high praise for the junior.

"(They have) a tremendous running back, one of the best in the country and probably right now the best one in the country," Drinkwitz said. "Obviously, they do a tremendous job featuring him, getting him multiple different carries at multiple different angles. He's downhill and physical, reminds me of a back that I saw last year quite a bit named Ahmad Hardy."

In two conference games, the standout back has added 304 rushing yards and six touchdowns. Alongside Baugh in the backfield is Duke Clark, who has already had an explosive performance this season. The 6-foot-2 sophomore had two long runs against Ole Miss and added 126 yards and a score on 12 carries.

Sep 26, 2026; Gainesville, Florida, USA; Florida Gators running back Duke Clark (20) rushes with the ball against the Mississippi Rebels during the second half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Clark has three touchdowns and 259 yards, averaging 8.1 yards per carry. The backup ranks 10th in the SEC in rushing yards.

Drinkwitz credited the offensive line and deep offensive unit as a major factor in the teams' overall success. The line, on top of protecting an elite run game, has allowed an SEC-low two sacks through four games.

"Their offensive line is playing at an elite level and then obviously they got Florida speed at both the running back position and the skill position. They've got a lot of different weapons," Drinkwitz said.

Containing a top-tier rushing attack is no easy task for a Missouri team that struggled against Mississippi State's Fluff Bothwell on Saturday. Bothwell went for 25 carries, 122 yards and a touchdown in the Bulldogs' victory. Drinkwitz said Missouri will need to strengthen tackling — an area they struggled against in the Mississippi State matchup — to be able to slow down the Gators' run.

Two different passing approaches

Sep 26, 2026; Starkville, Mississippi, USA; Missouri Tigers quarterback Austin Simmons (13) passes the ball during the third quarter against the Mississippi State Bulldogs at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

From a quick glance, Aaron Philo and Austin Simmons may look similar. They have a 30-yard difference in passing yards and are both multi-year guys in their first year leading an offense. But, in reality, these two teams are operating their offense in completely different styles.

In a highly-anticipated game, which this one is shaping up to be, Florida will try to beat Missouri on the ground, while Missouri will likely go through the air.

Florida relies on the run early to open up the passing game, while Missouri comes out of the gate slinging darts. Philo has attempted 87 passes compared to Simmons' 107 attempts and when it comes to big-time matchups, the numbers are starkly different. Philo attempted 23 and 22 passing attempts in Florida's two SEC games, while Simmons threw 29 and 39 passing attempts in the Tigers' two Power 4 matchups.

Sep 26, 2026; Gainesville, Florida, USA; Florida Gators quarterback Aaron Philo (12) throws against Mississippi Rebels cornerback Jaylon Braxton (2) and linebacker Keaton Thomas (11) during the first half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

In Simmons' first conference game against Mississippi State, he impressed with 295 yards and three scores, but faltered in his first career end-game drives. A turnover on downs on the second-to-last drive and a failed Hail Mary attempt marked Missouri's first loss of the year.

"He treats everything as an opportunity to grow and learn from and he understands that there were some things that we all can do better," Drinkwitz said. "We can give him better play calls on third and fourth down inside the red zone. We can give better play calls in that two-minute drive, so that the ball can be out of bounds. So that's everybody, but he's been great responding the right way."

Comparing the offensive leaders in the endzone, Simmons has thrown 11 touchdowns and zero interceptions, as Philo has seven scores and two interceptions. When the Tigers enter the red zone, they typically look to air it out, while Florida will go to its multi-dimensional backfield.

Even though the Tigers will rely on Simmons' arm and a deep room of wide receivers, they will still go to Jamal Roberts who has accumulated more carries on the year than Baugh. Roberts has added 89 carries, 395 yards and three touchdowns in the 2026 season. Missouri's approach between Roberts and Simmons is more diverse than Florida, but the Tigers don't have a phase of the offense that is as potent as the Gators' run game.

Flawed defenses could set up a shoot out

Sep 26, 2026; Starkville, Mississippi, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs running back Kolin Wilson (6) breaks a tackle attempt by Missouri Tigers linebacker Robert Woodyard Jr. (0) during the third quarter at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Florida has came out on top of two big matchups in the last two weeks, but gave up 39 and 28 points in doing so. Against Auburn, Florida gave up 271 Byrum Brown passing yards and three passing touchdowns, both of which marked season highs. Then, against Ole Miss, they gave up 298 passing yards and nearly five yards per carry, signalling struggles in both phases of the defense.

Missouri has a strong pass rush that sacked Kamario Taylor four times last week, but have had significant lapses in the secondary the last two games. Against Troy, the secondary gave up two throws of at least 55 yards and against Mississippi State, Missouri allowed two throws of 43 yards or more.

"We had two miscommunications in the secondary off of motions that really allowed them to have explosive plays," Drinkwitz said following the loss at Mississippi State. "Obviously, the double move was an excellent catch, but we were supposed to be in a different coverage off that motion and we didn't get that adjusted out. That's an execution thing that we can fix moving forward. As coaches we have to be better making sure that those guys are ready for that."

Despite the faulty secondary, Missouri has had a standout player in sophomore edge Daeden Hopkins. The two-time SEC Defensive Lineman of the Week has ammassed six sacks and added 3.5 against Mississippi State on Saturday.

Florida has two standout players on its defense in sophomore linebacker Jayden Woods and 6-foot-6 senior lineman Emmanuel Oyebadejo. Woods' superior speed at 6-foot-3, 245-pounds, is what makes him such a special player, contributing to his four sacks. Oyebadejo has added 2.5 sacks and three deflections this season. Following several low throws from Simmons against Mississippi State, the 6-foot-6 senior poses as a potential problem.

Despite each teams' standout performers, the defenses still have obvious weaknesses, with subpar secondaries and defenses that are prone to giving up substantial points. With two strong offenses, it's likely this game could turn into a high-scoring affair.

Mizzou vs Florida injury report

Florida wide receiver Vernell Brown III (1) celebrates a run during the first half an NCAA football game against Mississippi at Steve Spurrier Field at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, FL on Saturday, September 26, 2026. [Alan Youngblood/Gainesville Sun] | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Missouri's starting edge rushers Langden Kitchen and Darris Smith are each listed as questionable on the SEC's Student-Athlete Availability Report. With Hopkins' recent domination, he will be tasked with carrying the load like he did against Mississippi State, but this time even more eyes will be on him.

Depth pieces like Jaden Jones and Kaumaryn Morgan will likely pick up a lot of the snaps if the Tigers are without Smith and Kitchen. Jones and Morgan each played strong games against Mississippi State, as Jones was consistent in 39 snaps and Morgan tallied half a sack in his first taste of real SEC snaps.

On Florida's side, two key wide receivers in Vernell Brown III and Bailey Stockton are listed as questionable ahead of the matchup. Brown leads the team in receptions (17), receiving yards (271) and touchdowns (2). Accompanying the 5-foot-11 sophomore, is senior receiver Stockton, who has over 100 yards and followed Philo from Georgia Tech.

Ahmad Hardy is out once again for Missouri, leaving Roberts to carry the running load for another week.

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