Best & Worst-Case Scenarios for NC State Men's Basketball on Selection Sunday

RALEIGH — Televisions across Raleigh will be fixed on their local CBS affiliate on Sunday at 6 P.M. EST, eagerly awaiting the fate of NC State men's basketball on the NCAA Tournament Selection Show. Even after bowing out of the ACC Tournament in the quarterfinals, the Wolfpack seems to be safely in the field of 64 teams and off the bubble, avoiding a trip to Dayton.

Making the NCAA Tournament and competing in the top half of the ACC were always goals for the program's new head coach, Will Wade, in his first year at the helm. It appears as though those goals have been handled, but Wade still feels as though there's meat on the bone in his debut season with the Wolfpack. Selection Sunday could dictate the kind of run the Pack could go on in the Big Dance.

Best-Case Scenarios

Quadir Copeland and Paul McNei — Mar 12, 2026; Charlotte, NC, USA; NC State Wolfpack guard Quadir Copeland (11) and guard Jr. Paul McNeil (2) in the final seconds during the second half against the Virginia Cavaliers at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

In terms of seeding, the best NC State can do with its 20-13 record after the ACC Tournament is likely a nine-seed, but it would need help from the committee, according to most bracketologists listed on the Bracket Matrix. While it would be nice to earn a single-digit seed in the NCAA Tournament, it wouldn't make for a long trip in March, as even a first-round win would set up a matchup against one of the four No. 1 seeds.

A more favorable situation would come if the Wolfpack ends up as a No. 10 seed, facing a seven-seed in the round of 64. The teams slated to be seven-seeds currently are all flawed in some way, shape, or form, just as the Wolfpack is. However, most of them don't have nearly the same amount of tournament experience as NC State's roster does.

Will Wade, Ven-Allen Lubin — Mar 12, 2026; Charlotte, NC, USA; NC State Wolfpack head coach Will Wade with forward Ven-Allen Lubin (22) in the first half at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

A pair of projected two-seeds is vulnerable. NC State struggled mightily against top-tier competition during the regular season, but the Wolfpack is capable of going on a run if everything works at the same time and the 3-point shots are falling. Drawing Michigan State or Connecticut in the second round after a win in the opening round could mark the beginning of said run.

NC State finds itself in a position where an 11-seed is more favorable than a nine. Avoiding that top group of teams is crucial for any hope of a run.

Worst-Case Scenarios

Assuming NC State is a 10-seed when its name is called on the Selection Show, it can only face three of the four seven-seeds as things currently stand. Two teams from the same conference can't face in the round of 64 and Miami (FL) is likely to be a seven-seed, having already faced NC State once in the 2025-26 season during ACC play. That leaves options like UCLA, St. Mary's and Kentucky for the Pack.

Both UCLA and St. Mary's pose much larger challenges to Wade's team than Kentucky does. The Bruins and Gaels both have size, quality guard play and showed consistency and strength down the stretch of the season. A first-round exit would put a sour note on an already disappointing first season for Wade, making it the worst-possible scenario.