NC State–FSU Prediction: Why This One Feels Tight

RALEIGH — NC State needs just one win to ensure it gets a trip to a postseason bowl game and has two opportunities to make that happen. The first chance comes Friday night, as the Wolfpack (5-5, 2-4 ACC) is set to host a Florida State team in a nearly identical situation.

Both programs have had rollercoaster seasons, as the Seminoles (5-5, 2-5 ACC) have experienced extreme highs and cataclysmic lows, leading to many fans in Tallahassee questioning whether head coach Mike Norvell is the right man for the job. While NC State hasn't reached the same extremes, coach Dave Doeren faced similar pressure during a four-loss-in-five-games stretch earlier.

NC State head coach Dave Doeren on if he’s considering retirement at the end of the season:

“I don’t have any plans to do that. I’m gonna keep coaching. I’ve got four more years on my contract.” pic.twitter.com/FqOnYw5x1L
— Cory Smith (@RCorySmith) October 30, 2025

While NC State has been flat-out dominated in three of its five losses, Florida State's season has been defined by devastatingly close losses. Four of the Seminoles' five losses have been by one score, while each win has been emphatic in nature.

The Wolfpack remains banged up across the roster, while Florida State might be hitting its stride at the right time. However, there are some factors that favor NC State, making this a difficult matchup to predict.

A Bailey Bounce Back?

In his Miami homecoming game, NC State sophomore quarterback CJ Bailey struggled mightily and ended up having a nightmare performance. Just two weeks removed from his best performance as a member of the Wolfpack, a three-touchdown masterclass against a top-10 Georgia Tech team, the ceiling for the young signal caller is known. He'll also be back in his house, a place where he's performed much better.

Bailey averaged 287 passing yards and two passing touchdowns in the first five home games of the season. On the road, the sophomore threw for 219.2 yards and 1.6 interceptions per game. Back for a little home cooking, Bailey will need to find a way to regain the confident form he showed against Georgia Tech if the Wolfpack wants to beat Florida State.

When the Levee Breaks

Kenny Soares and Sabastian Hars — Nov 1, 2025; Raleigh, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina State Wolfpack linebacker Kenny Soares Jr. (33) tackles Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets running back Jamal Haynes (1) during the fourth quarter at Carter-Finley Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Zachary Taft-Imagn Images | Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

Both programs want to run the ball. Florida State enters the game rushing for 213.1 yards each game, good for the 13th best mark in the nation. They do so by committee, but it starts with veteran quarterback Tommy Castellanos. Stopping mobile quarterbacks hasn't been a strength for the Wolfpack defense thus far, with Georgia Tech's Haynes King recently gashing the Pack for 103 yards.

While Florida State's defense enters the matchup with average per-game statistics, NC State's group comes in as one of the ACC's worst. Opponents are converting 45.1% of third downs against the Wolfpack, a conference-high rate. FSU converts on 51.9% of its third downs, consistently breaking down opposing defenses in those situations.

NC State defens — Oct 4, 2025; Raleigh, North Carolina, USA; NC State Wolfpack defensive end Sabastian Harsh (54), defensive end Tra Thomas (4) and linebacker Ke'Von Carter (42) tackle Campbell Fighting Camels quarterback Kamden Sixkiller (6) during the first half of the game at Carter-Finley Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images | Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images

With some key contributors still out defensively, it's unlikely that defensive coordinator DJ Eliot and the Wolfpack coaching staff will be able to dam up the leaking third-down defense in 2025. NC State will need to just come up with a few stops in the red zone, like it did against Georgia Tech, to stay in the game.

Establishing the Run

Star running back Hollywood Smothers had a disastrous return for the Wolfpack against Miami. The ACC's leading rusher actually lost yardage on the ground in the lopsided tilt with the Hurricanes and Doeren turned to Duke Scott down the stretch.

Establishing some semblance of a rushing attack will be crucial for NC State in the Florida State game. The Seminoles are somewhat stingy against the run, but not nearly to the same degree that Miami was. Teams averaged 127.2 yards on the ground against Florida State during its 5-5 start, meaning Smothers could be in for a return to form with some proper blocking.

The Final Prediction

Nov 15, 2025; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; NC State Wolfpack head coach Dave Doeren watches from the sideline against the Miami Hurricanes during the second quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

The statistics point to Florida State as the favorite in Friday's game, but NC State has simply been a different team at home. The lone Wolfpack loss in Carter-Finley Stadium came at the hands of a Virginia Tech team fired up by an interim head coach and it was a close battle. Doeren's squad has already proven it can recover from a big loss in a return to Raleigh against Georgia Tech.

However, the injury bug feels like it might be too much for the Wolfpack this time. With starting cornerback Jamel Johnson ruled out, an already-decimated secondary is as undermanned as it's been all season long. Florida State's offensive playmakers will be too much for this NC State defense and FSU will hang on for a 38-35 win over the Wolfpack.

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