‘Experts’ Predict Outcome of Nebraska-Troy NCAA Tournament Game and Give Reasons Why

It’s March Madness so at least two things are true: Everyone fills out a bracket and are happy to tell you their Final Four, and media “experts” predict winners and losers.

Nebraska’s first-round game against Troy on Thursday (11:40 a.m. CDT, TruTV) has the media leaning toward the Huskers, but not as overwhelmingly as one might think. In our survey, experts say the fourth-seeded Huskers will win over the 13th-seeded Trojans in the South Region at Oklahoma City.

College basketball’s real world, especially in March, is a bit more complicated than what the experts say. Upsets lurk around every corner. First-round games, while on paper look relatively easy for the favorites, often are not.

We took a nationwide look at how media experts see the Huskers’ game vs. Troy, with some analysis about the Huskers’ NCAA chances as a whole.

The envelope, please …

ESPN’s Jeff Borzello predicts a 72-66 Nebraska win over Troy … then a 73-70 loss to Vanderbilt in the second round.

Borzello wrote: “There’s potential for multiple upsets throughout this region. McNeese is a high-octane group with high-major athleticism, and the Cowboys can give Vanderbilt a game. Troy is a well-coached unit that played in the NCAA tournament last year, and the Trojans will go against a Nebraska team without a tournament win in program history. “

ESPN’s Jay Bilas wrote about Nebraska-Troy: “The Trojans won at San Diego State and lost in triple overtime at USC. Troy can play. And though Nebraska has never won an NCAA tournament game, this year ends that drought. Winner: Nebraska.”

Bilas wrote about a potential Nebraska-Vanderbilt game: “This is a great matchup. Nebraska can beat almost anyone, but Vanderbilt’s guards will be the difference.

“It’s a close call, but take Duke Miles’ Commodores. He made a steal in the SEC final on Sunday at midcourt against Arkansas with his left hand that I thought was one of the best thefts I’ve seen all season long. He’s legit. Winner: Vanderbilt.”

More predictions …

Wyatt D. Wheeler, of the Topeka Capital-Journal, wrote: “Nebraska is going to win its first NCAA Tournament game. The Cornhuskers have been great all year. It’s time for them to make some history and knock off Troy.”

Gus Martin, of the Des Moines Register, is fully behind the Huskers. Martin picks Nebraska over Troy … for openers. He picks Nebraska over McNeese State in the second round. And Nebraska over defending champion Florida in the Sweet 16, before losing to Houston in the Elite Eight.

Eddie Timanus, of USA Today, thinks an upset is possible: “South Region potential upset in first round: No. 13 Troy over No. 4 Nebraska. Fred Hoiberg’s Cornhuskers earned their top-16 spot on the bracket with a strong finish in the Big Ten standings.

“But it’s still an undeniable fact that Nebraska has yet to win a game in the NCAA Tournament. OK, to be fair, the Trojans of Troy haven’t won a game in the Big Dance in their three prior appearances either. But the Sun Belt champ can be a tough out, and Troy coach Scott Cross has led the Trojans to 20-win campaigns in five consecutive seasons.”

Dan Treacy, of The Sporting News, writes: “Sometimes, evaluating a lower seed against a higher seed is simple: How did the lower seed perform against higher-level competition?

Jared Garcia against Purdue — Nebraska forward Jared Garcia has provided offense and rebounding off the bench for the Huskers. | David Banks-Imagn Images

“Unlike many of the double-digit seeds in this tournament, the answer for Troy is positive. The Trojans beat San Diego State, Akron and UAB, while USC effectively needed a miracle to hold this team off in Southern California. That makes the rest of Troy’s season downright mystifying, but it’s a reminder that the talent and grit are both there.

“The spread [Nebraska is a 13.5-point favorite] seems a bit too wide given Nebraska’s late-season slip-ups, but the Cornhuskers have heart, too, as evidenced by some of their impressive comebacks in losses to some of the Big Ten’s best teams.

“Troy’s strong perimeter defense is much-needed against the shooting of Pryce Sandfort and Rienk Mast. In a best-case scenario, Troy can turn this game ugly and win it ugly.

“The chances of Troy winning this game with its offense are slim. Nebraska’s defense has been a constant this season, and few teams guard the perimeter better than the Cornhuskers. That doesn’t bode well for a Trojans team that already doesn’t shoot the ball well, so a Nebraska win is undoubtedly the likely result here.”

David Cobb, of CBS Sports, wrote this under the headline: Team that will make a far-too-early exit

Cobb writes: “(4) Nebraska: Nebraska has never won an NCAA Tournament game before, and this is its best seeding since 1991. The Cornhuskers are no lock to advance, though. First-round opponent Troy beat San Diego State on the road this season and took USC to three overtimes.

“Even if Nebraska advances, it will likely have to contend with Vanderbilt in the second round. The Commodores were comically under-seeded as a No. 5, making this a tough draw for Nebraska. It’s a low bar to clear: one win over a No. 13 seed and you go down in program history. But the Cornhuskers are just 6-6 since their 20-0 start.”

CJ Moore, of The Athletic, has Nebraska defeating Troy, then defeating Vanderbilt to advance to the Sweet 16. The Huskers’ run ends with a loss to defending national champion Florida, which Moore has losing to Illinois in the Elite Eight.

Lindsay Schnell, of The Athletic, has Nebraska over Troy, then it gets interesting.

Schnell writes: “Everyone who didn’t go to Troy will pick the Huskers to finally win their first NCAA Tournament game, but could Nebraska actually go on a run? My hunch is no, mostly because that pressure could do them in.”

Pryce Sandfort vs Iowa — Forward Pryce Sandfort earned first-team all-conference honors in his first season as a Husker. | Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

Kerry Miller, of Bleacher Report, goes with the Trojans under this headline: Upset Special: Troy over Nebraska

Miller writes: “Troy has already shown itself to be a dangerous team, winning at San Diego State and almost winning at USC [back when USC was good] in mid-November. Troy also scored a 10-point win over Akron in that MAC-Sun Belt Challenge in early February.

“And after five consecutive seasons of at least 20 wins, Trojans head coach Scott Cross was already likely to be one of the buzzy names in this year’s ride around the coaching carousel.

“But let’s face it: Nebraska hasn’t been the same since its 20-0 start.

“The Cornhuskers haven’t lost to anything close to a Troy-caliber foe yet, but this once-elite offense has been held to 52 twice and to 58 once in its last seven games. And unless an overtime win at home against Iowa does anything for you, Nebraska hasn’t picked up a truly impressive win since early January. Nebraska has also never won a tournament game in eight tries.”

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