Nebrasketball's March Madness Tournament Projection: What Seed Will the Huskers Get?

The résumé is complete after the Huskers were knocked out of the Big Ten Conference Tournament in the quarterfinals Friday. Here is where they expect to be slotted on Selection Sunday.

Nebraska Cornhuskers head coach Fred Hoiberg. | Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

Nebraska's cake is baked. Now, all that's left is to see how the selection committee judges it.

The Huskers were knocked out of the Big Ten Conference Tournament in Chicago on Friday, 74-58. That gives the Big Red a 26-6 record going into Selection Sunday, where there are no doubts about Nebraska's inclusion in the field.

But what seed and site await Nebrasketball? Below are the metrics as of Saturday morning and what the latest bracketology says. Plus, which teams Nebraska is specifically being compared against for the closest first weekend tournament site, Oklahoma City.

Nebraska Cornhuskers forward Pryce Sandfort | Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

NET

One of the most important elements in determining which teams will make the NCAA tournament cut is the NCAA Net Evaluation Tool (NET). Introduced in 2018 to replace the RPI system, the NET rankings are designed to provide a sharper, more accurate picture of a college basketball team’s strength.

Here are the top 25 teams in the NET as of Saturday morning.

1. Duke
2. Michigan
3. Arizona
4. Florida
5. Houston
6. Gonzaga
7. Iowa State
8. Illinois
9. Purdue
10. UConn
11. Michigan State
12. Virginia
13. Nebraska
14. Vanderbilt
15. Louisville
16. Arkansas
17. Alabama
18. Texas Tech
19. Tennessee
20. St. John's
21. Kansas
22. Saint Mary's
23. BYU
24. North Carolina
25. Wisconsin

More important than order is how teams perform in different quadrants. The quadrants are used to determine the quality of a win or loss based on the location of the game and the NET ranking of the opposing team.

Quadrant	Home	Neutral	Away
Quad 1	1-30	1-50	1-75
Quad 2	31-75	51-100	76-135
Quad 3	76-160	101-200	136-240
Quad 4	161-353	201-353	241-353

This season, Nebraska went 9-6 in Quad 1, 6-0 in Quad 2, 5-0 in Quad 3, and 6-0 in Quad 4.

Nebraska Cornhuskers forward Rienk Mast. | Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

KPI

KPI ranks teams' resumes on a game-by-game basis. From NCAA.com, "KPI ranks every team’s wins and losses on a positive-to-negative scale, where the worst-possible loss receives a value of roughly around -1.0 and the best-possible win receives a value of roughly 1.0. KPI then averages these scores across a season to give a score to a team’s winning percentage. The formula uses opponent’s winning percentage, opponent’s strength of schedule, scoring margin, pace of game, location, and opponent’s KPI ranking."

Here are the top 25 teams in the KPI as of Saturday morning.

1. Michigan
2. Duke
3. Arizona
4. Florida
5. Houston
6. UConn
7. Virginia
8. Purdue
9. Kansas
10. Vanderbilt
11. Alabama
12. Michigan State
13. Iowa State
14. St. John's
15. Texas Tech
16. North Carolina
17. Gonzaga
18. Arkansas
19. Illinois
20. Nebraska
21. Utah State
22. Wisconsin
23. BYU
24. Saint Mary's
25. Tennessee

Nebraska Cornhuskers guard Sam Hoiberg. | Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

SOR

From ESPN.com, "Strength of Record (SOR) is a measure of team accomplishment based on how difficult a team's W-L record is to achieve. Game predictions account for opponent strength, pace of play, site, travel distance, day's rest and altitude, and are used to simulate the season 10,000 times to produce season projections."

Here are the top 25 teams in the SOR as of Saturday morning.

1. Michigan
2. Arizona
3. Duke
4. UConn
5. Florida
6. Houston
7. Virginia
8. Nebraska
9. Gonzaga
10. Michigan State
11. Iowa State
12. Arkansas
13. Vanderbilt
14. Alabama
15. Purdue
16. St. John's
17. Illinois
18. Kansas
19. Wisconsin
20. Texas Tech
21. North Carolina
22. Tennessee
23. Villanova
24. BYU
25. Miami (FL)

Nebraska Cornhuskers forward Berke Buyuktuncel. | Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

WAB

WAB, or Wins Above Bubble, shows how many more or fewer wins a team has compared to what a bubble team would average with that same schedule.

From NCAA.com, WAB "measures the quality of your resume based on the results. WAB is results-based and goes beyond strength of schedule to show how a team actually did against that schedule. Each game's result is assigned a value between 1 and -1, and that cumulative total determines a team’s ranking."

Here are the top 25 teams in the WAB as of Saturday morning.

1. Michigan
2. Duke
3. Arizona
4. Houston
5. Florida
6. UConn
7. Virginia
8. Purdue
9. Iowa State
10. Michigan State
11. Nebraska
12. Vanderbilt
13. Kansas
14. Alabama
15. Gonzaga
16. Illinois
17. Arkansas
18. St. John's
19. Texas Tech
20. Wisconsin
21. North Carolina
22. BYU
23. Louisville
24. Tennessee
25. Miami (FL)

Nebraska Cornhuskers head coach Fred Hoiberg. | Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

BPI

From ESPN.com, "The College Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of performance going forward. BPI represents how many points above or below average a team is."

Here are the top 25 teams in the BPI as of Saturday morning.

1. Duke
2. Michigan
3. Arizona
4. Houston
5. Florida
6. Iowa State
7. Illinois
8. Gonzaga
9. Purdue
10. UConn
11. Louisville
12. Tennessee
13. Michigan State
14. Vanderbilt
15. Alabama
16. St. John's
17. Nebraska
18. Arkansas
19. BYU
20. Kansas
21. Texas Tech
22. Kentucky
23. Virginia
24. Wisconsin
25. UCLA

Nebraska Cornhuskers guard Jamarques Lawrence. | Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

KenPom

Created by Ken Pomeroy, the KenPom rankings help break down teams on a possession-by-possession basis, analyzing the offensive and defensive performance per 100 possessions.

Here are the top 25 teams in the KenPom as of Saturday morning.

1. Duke
2. Michigan
3. Arizona
4. Florida
5. Houston
6. Iowa State
7. Illinois
8. Purdue
9. UConn
10. Michigan State
11. Gonzaga
12. Vanderbilt
13. Virginia
14. Nebraska
15. Tennessee
16. Arkansas
17. Alabama
18. Louisville
19. Texas Tech
20. St. John's
21. Kansas
22. BYU
23. Saint Mary's
24. Wisconsin
25. Iowa

Nebraska Cornhuskers forward Braden Frager. | Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

Torvik

Bart Torvik's T-Rank also calculates offensive and defensive efficiency. The main differences from KenPom are a GameScript stat, the omission of garbage time, Pythagorean expectancy, and a recency bias.

Here are the top 25 teams in the Torvik as of Saturday morning.

1. Duke
2. Michigan
3. Arizona
4. Florida
5. Hoston
6. Illinois
7. Iowa State
8. Purdue
9. UConn
10. Gonzaga
11. Michigan State
12. Texas Tech
13. Virginia
14. Vanderbilt
15. Tennessee
16. Louisville
17. St. John's
18. Alabama
19. Arkansas
20. Nebraska
21. Kansas
22. Wisconsin
23. Ohio State
24. UCLA
25. Saint Mary's

Nebraska Cornhuskers forward Jared Garcia. | Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

Latest Bracketology

While not all brackets on Bracket Matrix have been updated with Friday's results, the vast majority have Nebraska as a 3 seed.

Taking a look at a few well-known bracketologists:

• T3 Bracketology: 3 seed
• ESPN's Joe Lunardi: 3 seed
• 1-3-1 Sports: 3 seed
• 4th & 3 Analytics: 4 seed
• 801 Bracketology: 3 seed

The Huskers seem to be locked as a 3 seed. If any movement happens, it would be dropping to a 4. Most don't view that drop as likely.

Nebraska Cornhuskers guard Kendall Blue. | Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

Neighborhood Teams Fighting for OKC

As high a seed as possible is ideal, but so is the order of several teams fighting for a closer-to-home first weekend. The NCAA Tournament tries to send top seeds to their closest tournament site, in seed order. For Nebraska, the closest site is Oklahoma City, followed by St. Louis, Buffalo, Greenville, etc.

To get to OKC, Nebraska is concerned about ordering with Illinois, Iowa State, Purdue, Alabama, Kansas, Vanderbilt, and Texas Tech. Houston appears to have the other spot locked up for that site.

Of those teams that the Huskers are watching the ordering with, Vanderbilt, Purdue, and Arkansas are still playing on Saturday. While OKC is not the top location for any of those teams, being a 3 or 4 seed means your top location may not be available when it gest to you.

Nebraska Cornhuskers guard Cale Jacobsen. | Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

The most important ordering, besides Nebraska remaining high enough, is that Iowa State stays ahead of at least one of Illinois or Purdue. That would mean two of those three are in St. Louis, one is sent to Buffalo or Greenville, and Nebraska has a chance at OKC.

Verdict

As of Saturday morning, the seed and order indicate Nebraska to be playing in Oklahoma City on Thursday. We'll find out for sure on Sunday at 5 p.m. CDT on CBS during the NCAA Tournament Selection Show.

Have a question or comment for Kaleb? Send an email to kalebhenry.huskermax@gmail.com.

Nebraska Men's Basketball 2025-26 Schedule

• Oct. 18 Nebraska 90, BYU 89
• Oct. 27 Nebraska 91, Midland 50
• Nov. 3 Nebraska 86, West Georgia 53
• Nov. 8 Nebraska 96, Florida International 66
• Nov. 11 Nebarska 69, Maryland-Eastern Shore 50
• Nov. 15 Nebraska 105, Oklahoma 99 (Sanford Pentagon)
• Nov. 20 Nebraska 84, New Mexico 72 (Hall of Fame Classic)
• Nov. 21 Nebraska 86, Kansas State 85 (Hall of Fame Classic)
• Nov. 25 Nebraska 80, Winthrop 73
• Nov. 29 Nebraska 72, South Carolina Upstate 63
• Dec. 7 Nebraska 71, Creighton 50
• Dec. 10 Nebraska 90, Wisconsin 60
• Dec. 13 Nebraska 83, Illinois 80
• Dec. 21 Nebraska 78, North Dakota 55
• Dec. 30 Nebraska 86, New Hampshire 55
• Jan. 2 Nebraska 58, Michigan State 56
• Jan. 5 Nebraska 72, Ohio State 69
• Jan. 10 Nebraska 83, Indiana 77
• Jan. 13 Nebraska 90, Oregon 55
• Jan. 17 Nebraska 77, Northwestern 58
• Jan. 21 Nebraska 76, Washington 66
• Jan. 24 Nebraska 76, Minnesota 57
• Jan. 27 Michigan 75, Nebraska 72
• Feb. 1 Illinois 78, Nebraska 69
• Feb. 7 Nebraska 80, Rutgers 68
• Feb. 10 Purdue 80, Nebraska 77
• Feb. 14 Nebraska 68, Northwestern 49
• Feb. 17 Iowa 57, Nebraska 52
• Feb. 21 Nebraska 87, Penn State 64
• Feb. 25 Nebraska 74, Maryland 61
• Feb. 28 Nebraska 82, USC 67
• March 3 UCLA 72, Nebraska 52
• March 8 Nebraska 84, Iowa 75
• March 13 Purdue 74, Nebraska 58 (Big Ten Tournament)
• March 15 Selection Show 5 p.m. CBS

Home games are bolded. All times central.