Can Nebraska Be a Sleeper Team to Make the College Football Playoff?

Nebraska has made The Athletic’s list of 11 sleeper teams that could make the College Football Playoff.

In a story published Tuesday, The Athletic said it asked 11 of its college football writers to come up with “dark horses from teams that were unranked in Monday’s preseason coaches poll.”

Nebraska finished unranked and out of the top 25, landing 39th (others receiving votes).

Nebraska was the first school listed in The Athletic’s story. Teams were not listed alphabetically. No reason was given for the order of the teams’ listing.

In 2024, the first season of the playoffs expanding from four to 12 teams, four teams that were unranked in the preseason poll made the CFP: Big 12 champion Arizona State, Big Ten at-large team Indiana, ACC champion SMU, and Mountain West champion Boise State, a Group of 5 conference champion.

Expanded playoffs, by definition, nearly guarantees new or surprising teams get in. Whoever expected Indiana to make the CFP? Indiana, which once was a basketball school, has never really been a football school.

Let the madness begin.

Why is Nebraska a sleeper team?

Ralph D. Russo was the Associated Press’ national college football writer for two decades before joining The Athletic. He knows college football. Russo wrote about the Huskers:

“If I keep predicting a Cornhuskers’ resurgence at some point I’ll be correct. Right?

“Two reasons why Nebraska could be in CFP contention late into the season: First, the Matt Rhule third-year bump. His teams at Temple and Baylor followed similar paths. Year 1, losing record. Year 2, bowl eligible. Year 3, double-digit victories and an appearance in the conference title game.

“Of course, doing that in The American and Big 12 is not the same as trying to do it in the Big Ten. That’s where reason No. 2 comes in. There are six ranked Big Ten teams in the coaches poll and the Cornhuskers play only two: No. 14 Michigan at home early and No. 3 Penn State on the road late. Overall, the Huskers have five Big Ten home games. That’s a manageable path for QB Dylan Raiola and Co.”

Russo follows a path familiar to Huskers fans this offseason: Rhule’s third-season “magic”, and the Huskers’ manageable schedule arriving at just the right time.

Let’s take a look at Russo’s theories.

Rhule’s third-year magic

Maybe it’s a thing. Maybe it’s not. Rhule has talked about his third-year success. The Huskers’ roster has improved since Rhule became coach. This year’s transfers not only fill holes but bring impressive credentials and statistics.

But Rhule has talked about the character and makeup of his team and how important that is to the Huskers’ success. He has emphasized the importance of how his players have taken possession of the team.

At Big Ten Media Days, Rhule said: “At the end of the day, the program moves forward when players are talking to players about the right things, when they take the program from Coach Rhule’s program to their program. Right now it’s their program.”

How this translates into victories remains to be seen. Obviously, there’s no magic pill that automatically means the Huskers will be successful just because it’s Rhule’s third year. It doesn’t mean it won’t happen, either.

It’s part of Rhule’s resume. If he believes it, and the players believe it, well, that’s the point. If the players think they have a Rhule aura about them, they’ll run with it.

Nebraska’s manageable schedule

This is more a tangible factor, three weeks before the season opens vs. Cincinnati in Kansas City on Aug. 28.

Nebraska avoids powerhouses Ohio State and Oregon this season — likely losses. Michigan on Sept. 20 will be a bear, but the game will be played at Memorial Stadium. The last two games of the season will be difficult — at Penn State, and home against Iowa, which has beaten the Huskers nine times in their last 10 meetings.

Nebraska quarterback Dylan Raiola throws a pass against Iowa in the 2024 regular-season finale. | Julia Hansen/Iowa City Press-Citizen / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Another factor: Most Big Ten games can go either way. In 2024, Nebraska was 1-5 in one-score games in the regular season. That has to change. In fact, it needs to be reversed for the Huskers to sniff the CFP. The Huskers were 7-6 last season, with a one-score bowl win over Boston College.

Russo is on the right track about Nebraska. We’ll see soon enough if the Huskers are, too.

The Athletic’s 10 other sleepers:

* Oklahoma
* Louisville
* Utah
* Georgia Tech
* Iowa
* Washington
* Auburn
*Navy
* Kansas
* Pittsburgh

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