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Dave Feit: A Foundational Season for Nebraska
“What is Nebraska’s record going to be?”
I get asked that question a lot. Friends and family, co-workers, people on social media and more.
I don’t know.
Anybody who says they know is lying to you – or to themselves. Here’s why:
With a tough schedule, a lot of unproven depth, and an ongoing focus on avoiding critical mistakes, this is impossible to predict. And make no mistake – we won’t know the answer when the calendar flips from August to September.
I can picture a doomsday scenario where Nebraska wins three or four (or fewer) games. Those usually start with “Jeff Sims gets hurt” and snowball from there. On the flip side, if everything – and I mean everything* – goes according to plan, 10 wins is a possibility.
*We’re talking few injuries, newcomers flashing all over the field, returning guys taking the next step, multiple all-conference caliber players, few mistakes, catching opponents at the right time, and pretty much the opposite of every piece of bad juju that the Huskers have had in the Big Ten era. It could happen…just like I could win a truck from a lottery scratcher.
Personally, I would love to see six regular-season wins, with a chance for a seventh in a much-needed bowl game. Anything beyond that is gravy.
But for the first time in my life, I don’t care how many games Nebraska wins.
* * *
In 2023, I’m not going to get too wrapped up in the overall record. Sure, I want NU to win as many games as possible – especially the six needed to qualify for a bowl game. But the first year of the Rhule era is not about wins and losses.
Let’s say it again for emphasis: Year One of the Matt Rhule era is not about the wins or the losses.
This is a foundational year.
* * *
NU has been a bad team and a bad program for a long time.*
*How long? That is a depressing rabbit hole that we’re not going to go down.
For our purposes today, we’ll pick Oct. 29, 2016 as our starting point. Nebraska, 7-0 and ranked 7th, traveled to #11 Wisconsin for a prime time, West Division showdown. A great game, but Mike Riley’s Huskers lost 23-17 in overtime.
There are many people who will tell you Nebraska’s #7 ranking was a sham (it probably was, but it is still the highest NU has been ranked since 2010). Others will point out there was already structural deficiencies inside the program walls, going back to Bo Pelini, Bill Callahan or earlier. I won’t argue that either.
On that Saturday in 2016 – even after a heartbreaking six-point overtime loss – the exterior of the program still looked respectable to most outsiders. It wasn’t the Nebraska of the 1990s, but to a college football fan, NU looked like an above average program capable of nine wins a year.
But then the floors caved in.
* * *
Since that Wisconsin loss in 2016, Nebraska is a horrific 25-49 (.338). Mike Riley lost five of his last six games in 2017. Scott Frost lost his first six in 2018, and never won more than five in a season. For myriad reasons, Frost could not put Nebraska football back together again.
Frost’s teams had talent, but they failed to retain it, develop it, and/or properly utilize it. The game plans were questionable. The players made crucial errors in key moments. “They keep finding new and creative ways to lose” is a sentence I have typed far too many times since 2018.
By the end of the not-really-that-close 2021 season, it was becoming clear that the once proud Husker house was in shambles. The ceilings were sagging, but the four-win floors stayed the same.
At that point, it was inevitable. No quick fix – a coat of paint here, a new offensive coordinator there – was going to keep the caretaker of that crumbling house from being evicted.
Enter Matt Rhule.
* * *
Call it a “rebuild,” a “reset” or “starting from scratch”.
Frankly, I don’t care what you want to call it. I just want us to be honest about where things were at in 2022, and acknowledge what needs to be done to get Nebraska back on solid footing. The program has a honey-do repair list a mile long.
Fortunately, Matt Rhule is one of those do-it-all guys who specializes in rebuilding programs that have fallen into decay. He is absolutely, positively the right man for the job.
But it will take time.
This season is all about laying the foundation upon which the rest of the rebuild will occur. In Rhule’s world, that foundation is culture.
I view this season as digging the foundation for a house. To a passer-by, it may look like a big muddy hole in the ground, but a strong foundation is necessary to build a stable program.
* * *
If you’ve listened to Matt Rhule speak, he’s been trying to tell us not to get hung up on wins and losses in this first season.
At Big Ten Media Days, Rhule was asked what a successful season looks like. His answer was not about wins nor getting into a bowl game:
“We want to be a team that you say, ‘You know what? That team’s feared.’ But we’re not at that point yet. We’re at a point where I believe we have to take back the respect of what it means to play Nebraska and to be at Nebraska.
“I want people to respect when they see that white helmet with that red N on it. I want our fans to respect us when they pay their money to come watch us to play. And I want our opponents to respect us. And I want all of college football to respect the way Nebraska plays the game.
“And most importantly I want our players to respect what it means to be a Cornhusker and playing at Nebraska. This season for me is all about us not just earning, but taking back respect and bringing back respect to Nebraska football.”
In the “A Look N” web series, Matt Rhule clearly stated that he’s not going to sacrifice culture for wins:
“I am not going to worry about the guys that are not in. I’m only going to try to win with the guys who are in. But you must hear me: I will not get to game week and then change who I am just to try to win a game. I’m playing with the real ones.”
In both quotes, Rhule is telling us that his priority for Year One is culture, not wins.
If the wins happen because the culture comes together quickly, great! If not, Rhule will play who is bought in, no matter the results.
* * *
In my Reality Check column, we talked about how both of Rhule’s college teams have had a worse record in Year 1 than they did in the previous season. Nobody wants that to happen a third time, but we should recognize that it is a possibility.
But, here’s the good news: Rhule’s Year 2 record (6-6 at Temple, 7-6 at Baylor) is a big jump. Year 3 (10-4 and 11-3, respectively) is when things really get cooking.
- Year 1: Install the culture.
- Year 2: Recruit and develop.
- Year 3: See the results.
- Year 4 and beyond: Sustain and aim higher.
If you want to argue that the knowledge and experience Rhule has gained in his career and/or the transfer portal will accelerate that timeline, I’ll listen to your case.
But here’s the thing: I don’t want to skip steps.
I’m willing to be patient for an entire season – especially if we can see growth. Rhule’s system has worked twice before, and I believe it will work again.
* * *
In 2023, I want to see growth. Development.
I won’t be surprised to see some residual Frost era mental mistakes in September. But I do not want to see them in November.
I expect growing pains, breakdowns, and a frustrating day where everything goes wrong. But I also expect a game or two where it all clicks and the Alberts/Rhule vision for the 21st century of Nebraska football is on full display.
But mostly, I expect to see reminders of the work that still needs to be done. The talent gap that still exists between NU and the best teams in the conference. Depth that needs to be rebuilt. The ability to close out games in the fourth quarter.
* * *
At the top, I gave a four-paragraph answer about how Nebraska could win anywhere between three and 10 games depending on quarterback health and everything clicking.
Well…. I’ve got a confession: This is the third straight year I’ve used those exact words. I copy, paste, and swap out the name of the starting quarterback. Here’s the original 2021 version (featuring Adrian Martinez), and the 2022 version with Casey Thompson.
Why do that, you ask?
I wanted to show the depths of the “Groundhog Day” rut the program was in. 2023 marks the start of the climb out of that rut – even if the W/L record looks similar (or worse) to the last few years.
* * *
I believe in what Matt Rhule is doing.
I am more optimistic about the future of Nebraska football than I have been since the start of the 2019 season.
I am hopeful again.
Friends, we’re not quite to the Andy Dufresne crawls out of the sewer pipe moment. But it is coming.
Maybe it happens this year. Maybe it doesn’t.
Again, I’m choosing not to get hung up on wins and losses. I’ll be looking for signs of progress, growth, and development.
This year (and this year only), that matters more to me than wins and losses.
