Dave Feit: Unanswered Questions for the 2025 Nebraska Football Season

Will the Huskers' troubles in one-score games be solved? What will Matt Rhule's role be on game days? Who will be the breakout players?

Head coach Matt Rhule shakeup of the coaching staff gives him a solid new lineup of coordinators. | Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

In the final few days before the Nebraska football season starts, we might think we have a good handle on how things are going to shake out.

But several lingering questions remain. 

Let's dive in.

Is the last decade of one-score losses a sign that Nebraska football is due for a "law of averages" correction, or has this been a long-overdue regression to the mean?

This summer, Sam McKewon of the Omaha World-Herald did a deep dive on one-score games. McKewon - as always - provides a ton of great information and historical context. I recommend reading it.

Over the last four seasons (2021-2024), he found that "most teams fall within a (winning percentage) range of 40-60%." Theoretically, these games should be the true definition of a coin flip. It may come up tails several times in a row, but in a large enough sample size, the distribution will usually get close to 50/50.

Keep this in mind for later.

To nobody's surprise, the research showed that Nebraska has been in - and lost - a lot of one-score games in recent years.

Nebraska dominated statistically but found a way to lose to Iowa last season. | Julia Hansen/Iowa City Press-Citizen / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

McKewon looked at a four-year sample where NU was 5-23 (.179). While absolutely putrid, I think that's too small a sample size to make any conclusions. Let's expand out to the last 10 seasons. From 2015 to 2024, Nebraska was 18-45 (.286) in one-score games.

These numbers suggest Nebraska is overdue for a "law of averages" correction to get them closer to a 50/50-coin flip. Hooray!

But there's one nagging question: Over how large a span should Nebraska expect to end up in the coin-toss range of 50%? One hundred games? One hundred years?

For reference, here are Nebraska's records in one-score games over a number of ranges:

• All-time: 245-176-40, .575
• Last 100 seasons: 196-152-23, .559
• Since Bob Devaney was hired in 1962: 115-106-5, .520
• Last 50 seasons: 87-95-2, .478
• Last 25 seasons: 49-70, .412
• Since Nov. 30, 2014 (Bo Pelini fired): 18-46, .281

Depending on which range we choose, Nebraska's decade of failure in one-score games constitutes either a regression to the mean, or a law-of-averages* promise of good times ahead.

*From the Law of Averages Wikipedia entry: "As invoked in everyday life, the 'law' usually reflects wishful thinking or a poor understanding of statistics rather than any mathematical principle."

The entry also discusses "Gambler's fallacy" - the assumption that a roulette wheel that has landed on black eight times in a row just has to come red this time.

I was not a statistics major. I dropped out of my "Intro to Statistics" class after two days when I realized we weren't going to learn about things like ERA, on-base percentage and quarterback rating. I can't answer if the Huskers are in a long-overdue correction to the norm, or not.

But I know which one I want to happen, so let's all pretend we didn't see that italicized section, okay?

The Huskers held on for a Pinstripe Bowl win after coming close to squandering an 18-point fourth-quarter lead. | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

Nebraska has played in - and lost - a lot of one-score games in recent years. What can NU do to stop the cycle?

Easy, Nebraska just needs to win by two (or more) scores. Next question!

While that is an oversimplified (and admittedly sarcastic) answer, there is a nugget of truth in there.

Rhule has won three one-score games as Nebraska's head coach (Northwestern in 2023, Rutgers and Boston College in 2024). In all three, Nebraska held at least a two-score lead in the fourth quarter before the opponent scored to make it interesting.*

*Nebraska has been outscored in the fourth quarter (167-134) in Rhule's first two seasons. I'm not losing sleep over this, because it does not distinguish between comebacks and garbage-time scores against the reserves.

But since it is no longer 1995 and "get a lead and hold on for dear life" is not a great strategy, Nebraska should have a Plan B.

• Finish drives. Score touchdowns whenever possible, and if a field goal attempt is the only option, make the kick. Penalties, turnovers, and curious play calls have been red zone killers over the years.
• Avoid mistakes and breakdowns. If you listened to the excellent "Groin Kick Chronicles" podcast series - which mathematically ranked Nebraska's last 70 losses, 46 of which were by one score - you'll know that many of those games were lost because of a turnover, penalty, dropped pass, missed tackle or other breakdown. So often, the team that wins is not the most talented. It's the one that made the fewest mistakes.
• Eliminate the "Here we go again" mindset. How many times in the last 10 years have you watched Nebraska start to implode late in a game and thought, "Oh ____, here were go again." I've seen interviews where players acknowledge they thought it too. This one is the seemingly the hardest one to fix without actually winning games.

Nebraska's last game - the 2024 Pinstripe Bowl - had all of the markers of a one-score loss. The Huskers didn't finish drives. They made numerous mistakes. And I guarantee thousands of fans were thinking "here we go again" as Boston College cut the lead to five points.

But Nebraska found a way to win the game. Now, Nebraska just needs to make that a habit.

What is Matt Rhule's role on game days?

Within the last 12 months, Nebraska's head coach has upgraded all three of his coordinators.*

*If the tag team of defensive coordinator John Butler and associate head coach Phil Snow are on the same page, I'll operate under the assumption that their two heads are better than one Tony White.

With each of the three phases now in competent hands, I'm reminded of a quote from the movie "Office Space" that I would direct toward the head coach: "What would you say… you do here?"

Rhule is a CEO-style coach who oversees the entire operation from his three coordinators all the way down to the guy who washes dishes at the training table. From Sunday through Friday, Rhule is the Chief Culture Officer, a tireless hype man who is constantly selling all the amazing things Nebraska has to offer.*

Matt Rhule makes his case with officials during last season's game against Illinois. | Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

*I know there are some fans who wish Rhule would heed the "talk less, smile more" advice that Aaron Burr gives in "Hamilton." But I love that Rhule is always promoting - and selling - Nebraska… and to a lesser extent, himself.

I'd love it if we were back in the 1990s when Tom Osborne could studiously avoid self-aggrandizement. He could stand stoically in front of his pristine record of consistent success and pick and choose from a deep pool of talented players who wanted to be Cornhuskers. Osborne knew his Huskers would always be a top-10 team, no worse than second in the Big Eight, and a legit national championship contender.

Every dadgum year.

But in 2025, recruits have no idea that Nebraska was once good - and they certainly don't care about some grainy, low-def highlights from when their parents were young. Tomorrow's stars need to learn about everything Nebraska has to offer. Not where NU has been, but where it is going.

Rhule understands this, and he rarely misses an opportunity to sell his program - and his vision for it - on any national platform he can find, or even just walking around Nebraska's shiny new facilities.

We can fret that his newly announced podcast is too much – and I guarantee it will be brought up after each and every loss this fall. But college football is an “always be recruiting” job, and Rhule is doing just that.

Sunday through Friday, Rhule is doing an exceptional job. On Saturdays… well, there is room for improvement. You don't have to look too hard to find concerns with things like game management, clock usage and situational awareness. I can think of some game-day decisions that left fans scratching their heads.

Hopefully, with all three phases entrusted in capable hands, the detail-oriented Rhule can give a renewed focus toward the little things that are often the difference between wins and losses.

Already, there are signs that he's been doing this. In a recent press conference, Rhule spoke about the internal debate he's been having on what to do in a fourth-and-four situation near midfield. Pooch punt with Archie Wilson? Let Dylan Raiola try to pick up the first down?

A coach's game-day decisions always provide fodder for fans' second-guessing. | Dale Young-Imagn Images

It's the kind of choice that can decide games. Rhule knows what the analytics say, knows what his players can do, and hopefully knows the game situation well enough to get a good read on when to go for it and when to kick.

Because the reality is based on the results. If NU gets the first down or scores a safety, the head coach is a genius. If NU is a yard short or the punt trickles into the endzone for a touchback, fans and media will second-guess the choice. I know I will.

Will the Blackshirts regress or progress?

Under Tony White, the 2024 Blackshirts were solid. They were seventh in the 18-team Big Ten in points per game (19.5), yards per game (317.9) and sacks (30). They were ninth in interceptions (11) and forced fumbles (8).

We can go back and nitpick some games where the Blackshirts gave up big plays or couldn't get off the field on third down, but I'll take my chances with a defense that holds nine opponents to 25 points or less. NU was 7-2 last year when the defense allowed 25 points or less. The two losses were to Iowa and national champion Ohio State.

But Tony White is now at Florida State. John Butler was promoted to take over the defense. Phil Snow* - one of Rhule's most trusted allies - also will be deeply involved with the defense.

*The complete list of living defensive coordinators who can say they shut out Nebraska in a college football game:

     1) Phil Snow, as Arizona State's defensive coordinator in 1996.
     2) Sonny Lubick, as Miami's DC in the 1992 Orange Bowl.

That's the list. 

For reference, Iowa was shut out three times in 2023.

Growing pains are to be expected from the Huskers' defense this season. | Kyle Robertson/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Of the top 15 tacklers from Nebraska's 2024 defense, only six return. Four of those (DeShon Singleton, Malcom Hartzog Jr., Ceyair Wright and Marques Buford Jr.) are in the secondary, making it the most experienced of the defensive position groups. The defensive line lost Ty Robinson, Nash Hutmacher, James Williams, Kai Wallin and Stefon Thompson. Nobody on the 2025 roster had more than one sack in a Nebraska uniform in 2024.

What does it all mean? I wouldn't be surprised to see some growing pains early as Butler and Snow get comfortable working together and a host of new pieces (Andrew Marshall, Jamir Conn, Williams Nwaneri, Jaylen George, Dasan McCullough, Marques Watson-Trent and others) carve out their roles.

By the end of the season, I believe we'll see "progress." But I won't be shocked if we're panicking about defensive regression at some point before November.

Which players are primed for breakout seasons?

For our purposes, I'm defining a "breakout season" as one where a player either produces in their first extended playing time, or a returning player who significantly elevates his game.

• Dylan Raiola, quarterback. As I wrote here and here, even if Raiola is the exact same player he was a true freshman (when he set several freshman records), improvements in many of the position groups and units around him will help him look like a better player than he was a year ago.
• Heinrich Haarberg, tight end. I have this vision where Haarberg - a former starting quarterback - sits down in Dana Holgorsen's office and plays a video of Tyler Warren highlights. They sit silently and watch the clips of the 2024 Mackey Award winner catching 104 passes, operating a wildcat offense (where he ran and threw for touchdowns) and helped lead Penn State to the playoffs. As the highlights just keep coming, Haarberg looks Dana in the eye and says, "I can do all of this." Holgorsen takes a sip of his energy drink and says, "I know. Here's my plan…" At a minimum, I believe Haarberg will be a reliable option for Dylan Raiola and effective blocker.
• Riley Van Poppel, defensive line. Full disclosure: RVP was on this list a year ago before it was announced he would redshirt. A year later, my Van Poppel stock has soared higher than it was in 2024. He should be an anchor on the defensive line, and the year spent developing should pay dividends.
• Archie Wilson, punter. As I type this, the Australian freshman has not played an official game of American football. Has that ever happened with a Nebraska football player? If so, I can't think of an example. The hype for the ambipedal punter was already flying off the charts before he went viral. I think it is safe to say that Raiola - who is Nebraska's leading returning punter (two punts for an average of 34.5 yards) - won't be called upon to kick this year.

Can Nebraska fans get off of their manic rollercoaster?

Think about how we (as a collective fan base) react to wins. We start mapping out a road to the CFP, conference titles and more. The hero of the game is an all-conference player, if not a Heisman dark horse.

But if NU loses, everything is a horrible, awful disaster. The players suck, at least one coach should be fired, and nobody can think of a scenario where Nebraska ever wins a game again.

Fans celebrate on the field after Nebraska's win over Colorado in 2024. | Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

Reality, obviously, is somewhere in the middle. But we have conditioned ourselves to these manic mood swings based on whether a field goal is made or missed.

Maybe that is the reality of being a sports fan in an age of media oversaturation, where everybody rushes to their social media accounts, postgame call-in shows, podcasts and instant-reaction blogs before the clock hits 0:00.

Why bring this up, you ask? Let's say you believe Nebraska will go 8-4 in 2025 (a popular prediction). This means Nebraska will lose FOUR DIFFERENT TIMES! One out of every three games will result in a loss. More than likely, it means back-to-back losses.

Can we handle this? It seems odd to see fans predict three, four or five losses only to watch them lose their minds after each one.

When (not "if") Nebraska loses a game, can we please try to react rationally? Lament and discuss the things that went wrong. But let's not try to fire anybody in October.

No? Okay, then let's at least try to stay out of the players' mentions on social media.

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