Nebraska’s Loss to Illinois Exposes a Pattern of Self-Inflicted Mistakes

Illinois struggles defensively, but against Nebraska, it didn’t matter. Nebraska lost to Illinois 13-24 in a game where the only good thing you could say is that it wasn’t another one-score loss.

Nebraska showed no progress from week to week, yet again. Penalties that turned first downs into punts, missed field goals, and long 4th-down conversions created a Groundhog Day feel in Lincoln. Illinois dominated the Huskers in the “Middle 8*” of the game. They scored their first touchdown just before halftime. The first Illini drive of the second half appeared to end in a field goal until a fourth-and-12 conversion on a fake field goal kept it alive and led to another Illinois touchdown.

*Middle 8 = The four minutes of game time before and after halftime

In my preview, I said Nebraska needed to be balanced and consistent to win. They were through the first third of the game. After the Huskers’ opening touchdown, Anthony Colandrea was 10 for 12 passing. Nebraska had exactly 80 yards passing and 80 yards rushing. Even at halftime, Nebraska had 20 pass attempts to 19 carries.

Nebraska lacked consistency on its next three drives. A five-play drive lost two yards. An 11-play drive led to a missed field goal right before halftime. Nebraska turned the ball over on downs in what would be field goal range for most teams. Nebraska did get a second touchdown on what was almost a Hail Mary attempt in the 4th quarter. Anthony Colandrea finished with a good completion percentage of 74%. Nebraska moved the ball well, but it couldn’t convert that into points.

Nebraska's progress has stalled. The Huskers are getting beat in all three phases of the game in crucial moments. As in the Washington game, Nebraska won the net success rate battle against Illinois. This means that the Huskers have a higher percentage of good plays than their opponents. However, it’s constantly in its own way with penalties or missed chances to score. The issues for Nebraska are coming from within the house at this point.

Nebraska vs Illinois advanced metrics — Nebraska won the success rate battle, but lost on Explosive plays | Game on Paper

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While the struggles were nothing new for the offense and special teams, the defense really struggled in this game, especially on late downs. Illinois averaged -0.08 EPA* per play on their 46 early down snaps (first and second down). On late downs (third and fourth down), they averaged 0.79 EPA per play across 17 plays. Across their 15 third-down attempts, the Fighting Illini averaged 9.5 yards per play. Illinois converted 8 of 15 third-down attempts. Even the defense lost in high-leverage situations in this game.

Nebraska vs Illinois late down succes rate — The Blackshirts were good at forcing 3rd and long, but allowed big plays on 3rd down to the Illinois offense | Game on Paper

*EPA = Expected Points Added. A measure of how many points are created on a per-play basis

Matt Rhule is three-quarters of the way through his 4th season at Nebraska. The team still struggles to find consistency in its play. Over its last two games, Nebraska’s only touchdowns have come on drives longer than 90 yards. In fact, Nebraska has had only one drive that didn’t end in a touchdown that started within the team’s own 10-yard line against Washington and Illinois.

I entered this game believing consistency was the key to winning. The only consistency Nebraska shows from game to game is its ability to hurt itself. Nebraska is committing the same basic penalties it was at the start of the season. Those are killing drives. Even when Nebraska puts together a successful drive, a missed field goal leaves it empty.

Nebraska’s path to consistency in 2027 may require a major change in the coaching staff sooner rather than later.

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