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Nebraska's Most Likely Final Record After Four Games

The Huskers are in the exact same position through four games as last year. However, the analytics say the final record will be better.
Kaleb Henry|
Matt Rhule is 3-1 to open his third season at Nebraska.
Matt Rhule is 3-1 to open his third season at Nebraska. | Kenny Larabee, KLIN

In this story:

Nebraska CornhuskersMichigan State SpartansMaryland TerrapinsMinnesota Golden GophersNorthwestern WildcatsUSC TrojansUCLA BruinsPenn State Nittany LionsIowa Hawkeyes

For the second straight year, Nebraska football is 3-1 through four games.

Last year, the Huskers notched wins over a Power Four program, a Group of Five team, and an FCS foe, before dropping the Big Ten Conference opener. That same pattern played out this year, with a 30-27 loss to Michigan as the first blemish on the 2025 campaign.

Nebraska linebacker Vincent Shavers Jr. brings down Michigan's Justice Haynes for a 1-yard loss.
Nebraska linebacker Vincent Shavers Jr. brings down Michigan's Justice Haynes for a 1-yard loss. | Kenny Larabee, KLIN

In 2024, Nebraska bounced back with two wins before dropping the next four. The Huskers would go 6-6 and make the Pinstripe Bowl, earning a winning record for the first time since 2016's 9-4 finish.

So how will this year go?

According to Kelly Ford and the KFord Ratings, Nebraska has a solid chance to eclipse last year's output. Here are the game-by-game percentages of winning for Nebraska's remaining schedule.

Michigan State is in town on Oct. 4. The Spartans are 3-1, with wins over Western Michigan, Boston College, and Youngstown State, and a loss at USC. KFord gives Nebraska an 86% chance of winning the game.

Nebraska quarterback Dylan Raiola looks for a receiver against Michigan.
Dylan Raiola is 10-7 through his first 17 games at the collegiate level. | Kenny Larabee, KLIN

The first true road game of the season is at Maryland on Oct. 11. The Terrapins are 4-0, with wins over Florida Atlantic, Northern Illinois, Towson, and Wisconsin. KFord gives Nebraska a 73% chance of winning the game.

The Huskers stay on the road the next Friday to take on Minnesota. The Golden Gophers are 1-2 with wins over Buffalo and Northwestern State and a loss at California. KFord gives Nebraska a 73% chance of winning the game.

A return trip home finds Northwestern coming to Lincoln on Oct. 25. The Wildcats are 1-2, with a win over Western Illinois and losses to Tulane and Oregon. KFord gives Nebraska a 91% chance of winning the game.

Another home contest the next weekend is against USC. The Trojans are 4-0 with wins over Missouri State, Georgia Southern, Purdue, and Michigan State. KFord gives Nebraska a 45% chance of winning the game.

Nebraska offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen looks on from the sideline against Michigan.
Since Dana Holgorsen got to Lincoln, Nebraska is 5-3. | Kenny Larabee, KLIN

Back on the road, Nebraska travels to UCLA on Nov. 8. The Bruins, who fired head coach DeShaun Foster after just three games, are 0-3 with losses to Utah, UNLV, and New Mexico. KFord gives Nebraska a 94% chance of winning the game.

After a week off, the Huskers head east to face Penn State on Nov. 22. The Nittany Lions are 3-0, with wins over Nevada, FIU, and Villanova. KFord gives Nebraska a 24% chance of winning the game.

The regular-season finale is at home with Iowa on Black Friday. The Hawkeyes are 3-1, with wins over Albany, UMass, and Rutgers, and a loss at Iowa State. KFord gives Nebraska a 69% chance of winning the game.

If you take every game with a better than 50% of chance as a Nebraska win, then the Big Red are in line to go 9-3. KFord gives Nebraska a 54% chance to win at least nine games. The ratings also give the Big Red a 20% chance to win at least 10 games, and a 3% chance to win 11 games.

The last time Nebraska won nine games was that 2016 season. The last 10-win season came in 2012, when Bo Pelini's Huskers went 10-4 with losses in the Big Ten Championship and Capital One Bowl. The last 11-win season was in 2001, when Frank Solich's team fell in the Rose Bowl.

Have a question or comment for Kaleb? Send an email to kalebhenry.huskermax@gmail.com.

Nebraska Football 2025 Schedule

  • Aug. 28 Nebraska 20, Cincinnati 17
  • Sep. 6 Nebraska 68, Akron 0
  • Sep. 13 Nebraska 59, Houston Christian 7
  • Sep. 20 Michigan 30, Nebraska 27
  • Oct. 4 vs. Michigan State 3 p.m. FS1
  • Oct. 11 at Maryland TBA
  • Oct. 17 (Friday) at Minnesota 7 p.m. FOX
  • Oct. 25 vs. Northwestern TBA
  • Nov. 1 vs. USC TBA
  • Nov. 8 at UCLA TBA
  • Nov. 22 at Penn State TBA
  • Nov. 28 (Black Friday) vs. Iowa 11 a.m. CBS

Home games are bolded. All times central.

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Kaleb Henry
KALEB HENRY

Kaleb Henry is an award-winning sports reporter, covering collegiate athletics since 2014 via radio, podcasting, and digital journalism. His experience with Big Ten Conference teams goes back more than a decade, including time covering programs such as the Nebraska Cornhuskers, Oregon Ducks, and USC Trojans. He has contributed to Sports Illustrated since 2021. Kaleb has won multiple awards for his sports coverage from the Nebraska Broadcasters Association and Midwest Broadcast Journalists Association. Prior to working in sports journalism, Kaleb was a Division I athlete on the Southern Illinois University-Edwardsville Track and Field team where he discussed NCAA legislation as SIUE's representative to the Ohio Valley Conference Student-Athlete Advisory Committee. 

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