Big Ten Basketball Tournament Seeding Scenarios for Every Team with One Game Left Each

The final weekend of the regular season is here, and only so many opportunities remain to change seeds for both the conference tournament and the Big Dance.

Nebraska Cornhuskers forward Pryce Sandfort. | Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

Welcome to the final weekend of the Big Ten Conference's regular season.

The league tournament is set for next week in Chicago. Unlike last year, when three teams did not get to participate, all 18 programs will make the event.

With everyone having one game left to play, here are the seeding scenarios for every team.

1. Michigan 18-1
2. Michigan State 15-4
3. Illinois 14-5
4. Nebraska 14-5
5. Purdue 13-6
6. Wisconsin 13-6
7. UCLA 12-7
8. Ohio State 11-8
9. Iowa 10-9
10. Indiana 9-10
11. Minnesota 7-12
12. USC 7-12
13. Washington 7-12
14. Rutgers 5-14
15. Northwestern 5-14
16. Maryland 4-15
17. Oregon 4-15
18. Penn State 3-16
19. Big Ten Tournament Schedule

Michigan 18-1

• Ceiling: 1
• Floor: 1
• Most Likely: 1
• Remaining Game: Sunday vs. Michigan State

The top seed in the Big Ten Tournament was locked up a few games ago, but now the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament is up for grabs. The Wolverines were in that spot when the selection committee revealed its top 16 a couple of weeks ago, but since then, Duke has posted better metrics.

Handling business on Sunday is as much about the in-state rivalry as it is March Madness positioning.

Michigan Wolverines center Aday Mara | Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

Michigan State 15-4

• Ceiling: 2
• Floor: 3
• Most Likely: 3
• Remaining Game: Sunday at Michigan

The math is simple for the Spartans: you get the 2-seed if you beat your rival at their place on Sunday, or if Nebraska loses to its rival. If Michigan and Nebraska are victorious, then MSU is the 3-seed. Either way, you're on the opposite side of Michigan while in Chicago.

Michigan State's Jaxon Kohler, center, celebrates with Jordan Scott, left, and Carson Cooper. | Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Illinois 14-5

• Ceiling: 3
• Floor: 5
• Most Likely: 4
• Remaining Game: Sunday at Maryland

The Illini can still drop out of the triple bye, but it would take the following: Illinois loss to Maryland, Nebraska loss to Iowa, and Wisconsin win over Purdue. That's the long shot to get Illinois to jump ahead to playing on Thursday, but simply beating Maryland gets them a triple bye, and from there it depends on the Nebraska game for the 3-seed or the 4-seed.

The Illinois Fighting Illini | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

Nebraska 14-5

• Ceiling: 2
• Floor: 5
• Most Likely: 2
• Remaining Game: Sunday vs. Iowa

Vaulting back into second in the league is still on the table, but, just like Illinois, so is dropping to the double bye and a 5-seed. A win locks up that triple bye, even if Michigan State stays at the 2-seed with an upset victory. The only way to drop to the 5-seed is with a loss to Iowa and a Purdue win over Wisconsin. Take care of business, and you've got a top-three seed in the Big Ten Tournament and could potentially lock up a top-three seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Nebraska Cornhuskers head coach Fred Hoiberg | Robert Hanashiro-Imagn Images

Purdue 13-6

• Ceiling: 4
• Floor: 7
• Most Likely: 5
• Remaining Game: Saturday vs. Wisconsin

The winner on Saturday has a chance at a triple bye; the loser is stuck with a double bye. But the Boilermakers need some help to skip through to the quarterfinals: beat Wisconsin and have Iowa upend Nebraska.

The Purdue Boilermakers | David Banks-Imagn Images

Wisconsin 13-6

• Ceiling: 4
• Floor: 6
• Most Likely: 6
• Remaining Game: Saturday at Purdue

Just like Purdue, the Badgers need some help in getting the triple bye. Not only do they need a win in their own game and an Iowa over Nebraska result, but also for Maryland to do the unthinkable against Illinois.

Wisconsin Badgers guard John Blackwell | Steven Bisig-Imagn Images

UCLA 12-7

• Ceiling: 6
• Floor: 8
• Most Likely: 7
• Remaining Game: Saturday at USC

The Bruins are locked into a double bye, but which game on Thursday they play in has yet to be decided. A win over USC, plus a Wisconsin win over Purdue, and UCLA is the 6-seed. However, a Purdue win would keep the 7-spot as their ceiling, while a loss and an Ohio State win over Indiana could mean an 11 a.m. CST tip on Thursday.

UCLA Bruins forward Tyler Bilodeau (34) chest dumps teammate Eric Dailey Jr. (3) | Robert Hanashiro-Imagn Images

Ohio State 11-8

• Ceiling: 7
• Floor: 9
• Most Likely: 8
• Remaining Game: Saturday vs. Indiana

The Buckeyes have a shot at the double bye. The only way to drop to a Wednesday game is with a loss to Indiana and an Iowa win over Nebraska. Should the Huskers win, the result of OSU-IU wouldn't matter in keeping the Buckeyes from Thursday.

Ohio State Buckeyes forward Devin Royal | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Iowa 10-9

• Ceiling: 8
• Floor: 9
• Most Likely: 9
• Remaining Game: Sunday at Nebraska

Simple math here for the Hawkeyes: lose, and you're the 9-seed. Win, and get some help from Indiana topping Ohio State, and you get to advance to Thursday with a double bye.

Iowa Hawkeyes guard Bennett Stirtz | Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

Indiana 9-10

• Ceiling: 10
• Floor: 10
• Most Likely: 10
• Remaining Game: Saturday at Ohio State

Smack dab in the middle of the league, the Hoosiers already know their final placement. That means Indiana fans can begin planning for Wednesday's 5:30 p.m. CST game against the winner of Penn State and either Rutgers or Northwestern.

Indiana Head Coach Darian DeVries | Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Minnesota 7-12

• Ceiling: 11
• Floor: 13
• Most Likely: 13
• Remaining Game: Saturday vs. Northwestern

The 11, 12, 13 race between Minnesota, USC, and Washington may be the most interesting of the weekend. All three play on Saturday. All three are guaranteed one of these seeds with a single bye to Wednesday.

In a three-way tie, Washington holds the tiebreaker. In a two-way tie, it is Washington over USC, Washington over Minnesota, and USC over Minnesota.

Minnesota Golden Gophers head coach Niko Medved | Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

USC 7-12

• Ceiling: 11
• Floor: 13
• Most Likely: 12
• Remaining Game: Saturday vs. UCLA

See above.

Southern California Trojans guard Alijah Arenas shoots the ball. | Steven Bisig-Imagn Images

Washington 7-12

• Ceiling: 11
• Floor: 13
• Most Likely: 11
• Remaining Game: Saturday at Oregon

See two above.

Washington Huskies guard Courtland Muldrew (30) and guard Zoom Diallo (5). | Steven Bisig-Imagn Images

Rutgers 5-14

• Ceiling: 14
• Floor: 15
• Most Likely: 14
• Remaining Game: Sunday vs. Penn State

A bye in the Big Ten Tournament is on the table for the Scarlet Knights. All that stands in their way is the worst team in the league. A win, and they get to skip the first round. A loss, and they've got to hope the Wildcats don't upend Minnesota.

Rutgers guard Jamichael Davis dribbles against Michigan State guard Jeremy Fears Jr. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Northwestern 5-14

• Ceiling: 14
• Floor: 15
• Most Likely: 15
• Remaining Game: Saturday at Minnesota

The Wildcats need some help to not be playing on Day 1 of the Big Ten Tournament. Northwestern needs to not only beat Minnesota but also have Penn State knock off Rutgers.

Northwestern's Nick Martinelli | Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Maryland 4-15

• Ceiling: 16
• Floor: 17
• Most Likely: 17
• Remaining Games: Sunday vs. Illinois

The game matchup is already decided, but who gets to be the higher seed remains in the air. The Terrapins and Ducks are guaranteed to be in the opening game of the Big Ten Tournament on Tuesday at 4 p.m. CST in Chicago. If the teams are still tied after Sunday, Oregon holds the tiebreaker to take the 16 seed.

Wisconsin forward Nolan Winter thwarts a basket by Maryland forward Solomon Washington. | Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Oregon 4-15

• Ceiling: 16
• Floor: 17
• Most Likely: 16
• Remaining Game: Saturday vs. Washington

See above.

Oregon Ducks head coach Dana Altman | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

Penn State 3-16

• Ceiling: 18
• Floor: 18
• Most Likely: 18
• Remaining Game: Sunday at Rutgers

Not saying there isn't anything left to play for, but there isn't for at least this weekend for the Nittany Lions. Already with last place in the league locked up, Penn State will play in the second game on Tuesday against either Rutgers or Northwestern, with the winner advancing to Wednesday against Indiana.

Penn State Nittany Lions guard Dominick Stewart | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Big Ten Tournament Schedule

All times central

March 10

• 16 vs. 17 4 p.m.
• 15 vs. 18

March 11

• 9 vs. 16/17 11 a.m.
• 12 vs. 13
• 10 vs. 15/18 5:30 p.m.
• 11 vs. 14

March 12

• 8 vs. 9/16/17 11 a.m.
• 5 vs. 12/13
• 7 vs. 10/15/18 5:30 p.m.
• 6 vs. 11/14

March 13

• 1 vs. 8/9/16/17 11 a.m.
• 4 vs. 5/12/13
• 2 vs. 7/10/15/18 5:30 p.m.
• 3 vs. 6/11/14

March 14

• Semifinal 1 12 p.m.
• Semifinal 2

March 15

• Championship 2:30 p.m.

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