Peterson: Nebraska’s First Month Was Predictable; Why October Could Be Too

The strengths and weaknesses were obvious this offseason for Nebraska football. Can Nebraska football use that to its advantage in October?

The first month of the season stuck to the script. Will it be more of the same in October? | Kenny Larabee, KLIN

Barely one month ago, you hadn’t even watched Nebraska play in a football game yet. Do you remember what you thought would happen?

After a long eight months without football, you had probably talked yourself into and out of numerous opinions. That’s what happens when you have too much time to think about an upcoming season.

It certainly happened to me.

As the season approached, I decided to write down the reasons why things were going to be different. I also decided to opine on why things would be more of the same. I took a look at four reasons to buy into a breakthrough 2025 and four reasons* to put the Kool-Aid down.

*Apparently, readers were more apt to click on the negative column, which was odd. Read the positive one, too!

Reasons to buy in:

1. The schedule allows for the team to find itself before a big time, late October and November
2. Dylan Raiola is about to take a massive step forward
3. It’s time to start believing in special teams again
4. The Groin Kick Era of Husker football is over

Reasons to put down the Kool-Aid:

1. The defense is about to regress
2. Seriously, how good do you feel about the depth in the running back room?
3. Nebraska’s in-game management leaves a lot to be desired
4. I just need to see it before I believe it

With four games in the book – a third of the season now in the rearview mirror – I thought this was the perfect time to look at each argument and try to figure out if it’s held true so far. More importantly, will it continue to hold true in October and November?

The 3-1 record for Nebraska this season was expected by many throughout the offseason. Can they pull off an upset; something they didn't do against Michigan? | Kenny Larabee, KLIN

Let’s dive in, alternating between the positives and negatives.

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Reason to buy in: The schedule allows for the team to find itself before a big time late-October and November

The argument: According to Kelley Ford’s analytics, Nebraska entered into 2025 with a projected record of 7.6-4.4; essentially a 7-5 or 8-4 team, depending on how the 50-50 games went. On top of that, Nebraska was favored to win seven of its first eight games. Only Michigan in Lincoln was a projected loss, with Nebraska winning that game only 36% of the time in Ford’s simulations. The schedule would include projected October wins vs. Michigan State (72%), Maryland (73%), Minnesota (54%), and Northwestern (84%).

Bill Connelly’s SP+ numbers were more of the same; the Huskers would be favored in seven of their first eight games, with a tough November as a dog against USC, Penn State, and Iowa. That said, USC and Iowa had Nebraska as a 2.1 and 2.5-point underdog. A coin flip, basically.

Nebraska's defense made just enough plays against Cincinnati to pick up the 20-17 win. | Frank Bowen IV/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The result: If anything, Nebraska has overperformed the pre-season numbers. Bill Connelly’s spring projections had Nebraska facing Michigan as a 12.6-point* underdog. Nebraska overperformed that number by almost ten points. They overperformed the Akron number by close to 40 points. Only Cincinnati in the opener – a projected 9.2-point win according to Bill Connelly’s SP+ numbers – did Nebraska not beat the priors, underperforming by six points.

*As I pointed out in early August, home-field advantage was not built into any of the numbers. Depending on how valuable Memorial Stadium is, that line would probably have been closer to Michigan -10.

Nebraska -10.5 against Michigan State, according to FanDuel. pic.twitter.com/3pDbARpP59

— Josh Peterson (@joshtweeterson) September 28, 2025

And now, October arrives. The schedule is still the schedule. Nebraska will welcome Michigan State to Lincoln this week as a 10.5-point favorite, up 1.5 points from the spring SP+ numbers. Let’s see how the month unfolds, but you’d expect Nebraska to be short favorites in College Park and Minneapolis, before being a large favorite against Northwestern.

Was it correct: TBD, but it’s certainly trending in the right direction. If Nebraska is unable to go 3-1 or 4-0 in October, it won’t be because the schedule is tougher; it’ll be because Nebraska continues to struggle against teams like this. “Can’t take the next step,” would get uttered too many times at your Halloween party. “November won’t be fun,” would get said at others.

The schedule is manageable. It’s time for the program to take the next step.

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Reason to put down the Kool-Aid: The defense is about to regress

The argument: Tony White, Terrance Knighton, Ty Robinson, Nash Hutmacher, Jimari Butler, and others were all gone. And as I wrote, “And some people think this side of the ball could be better?” The crux of my argument was pretty simple:

The defensive line is too young, the defense as a whole is relying on too many transfers, and the defensive backfield actually isn’t the strength you believe it is. There are just a whole lot of bodies in the secondary with experience, so it seems like you should be buying in.

John Butler, coordinating a defense for just the second time ever, was going to have a tough go at it. The season was going to get put more on the shoulders of the offense.

Nebraska defensive coordinator John Butler has a big problem on his hands. Can he fix the run defense woes? | Kenny Larabee, KLIN

The result: Through week five of the college football season, Nebraska’s run defense ranks 110th in the country, allowing 173.5 yards per game. When looking at yards per carry, the number drops: 122nd in the country, allowing 5.18 yards per carry. The pass defense is the best in the country by a wide margin, allowing just 75.8 yards per game, almost 40 yards better per game than Alabama at number two.

They’re first in the country in QB efficiency, and that’s including a game against Brendan Sorsby, currently 11th in the country in the same stat. And while they’re only allowing 13.4 points per game – 16th-best in the country – that number is, of course, inflated by seven combined points allowed vs. Akron and Houston Christian.

Cincinnati and Michigan combined for 47 points – 23.5 points per game – which isn’t terrible, but not as dominating as the overall numbers.

Was it correct: I’d say so!

On a short list of storylines so far this season, Nebraska’s step back on defense is near the top. Going a step further, the run defense isn’t leaving anyone with warm and fuzzies. According to Game On Paper, Nebraska’s rushing success rate ranks 134th out of 136 teams in the entire country.

Cincinnati had a 55% success rate running the ball vs. the Blackshirts. For Michigan, it was 56%. As good as Nebraska’s pass defense is – and it is good, ranking seventh in the country in success rate when facing the pass – Nebraska’s success or failure this season will come down to how well they do or don’t stop the run.

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Reason to buy in: Dylan Raiola is about to take a massive step forward

The argument: With an entire offseason to work with Dana Holgorsen, an improved wide receiving core, and the knowledge learned during a true freshman season, the former five-star quarterback had a big leap in him.

In August, I wrote:

If you believe in Raiola’s ability to reach the five-star status he came to Lincoln with, you’ll probably point to those September games, in particular the first three quarters against Illinois, as he made all sorts of plays with his arm in a way we’d never seen from a Nebraska quarterback. But don’t forget the throws he had in other games; the end-of-half touchdown passes against UTEP and Wisconsin still stick with me all these months later.

Dylan Raiola is playing the best football of his career. Can it continue? | Kenny Larabee, KLIN

I added, “anything less than a massive uptick in production would be truly shocking.” Well…

The result: 1100+ yards, 11 touchdowns, only one interception, doing so while completing 75.6%* of his passes. In terms of success rate, Nebraska’s passing game ranks 10th in the country on dropbacks. The game seems to be slowing down; watch the stripe** on his helmet, as he surveys the defenses and goes through his professions.

*His “worst” game so far was when he went 15-of-21 against Houston Christian; 71.4%. He has to do better!

**This is something I've learned from Bob Sturm, one of my favorite radio hosts/writers who covers the Dallas Cowboys. In his film breakdowns, particularly after a heady play by a quarterback, he'll implore his readers to watch the stripe on the helmet of the QB; see where his head is moving as he looks for an open teammate.

Was it correct: Absolutely. If Nebraska is going to go 8-4 or 9-3, there’s no way it happens without a good (great?) season from Nebraska’s QB. He’s on pace for a 33-3 TD-INT season, which would easily be the best (if unlikely) season we’ve ever seen through the air from a Nebraska QB.

And yet, what sticks with me most right now is how he’s responded to adversity. Against Cincinnati, he had some turnover-worthy plays, but never let it affect him. The Bearcats took away his deep ball, but he was happy to go underneath.

Following Nebraska’s fourth drive against Michigan, things were going sideways. The previous two series had ended after three plays each, the first on an interception – Raiola’s first of 2025 – with the second ending on a sack. Walking off the field, you could sense the frustration from Nebraska’s second-year QB. Hell, it seemed like Emmett Johnson sensed it too, giving his quarterback a pep talk.

Dylan Raiola and Emmett Johnson walk off the field after a quick three-and-out for the Nebraska offense. | CBS Sports

After his defense forced and recovered a fumble, Raiola led Nebraska’s offense to 17 total points on the next three drives. While Nebraska wouldn’t get it done, you could make an argument that it was the best game of Raiola’s career thus far, when taking into account the opponent and what was at stake for Nebraska.

Plainly put, Dylan Raiola is carrying the offense, if not the entire team, with his ability to throw the football.

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Reason to put down the Kool-Aid: Seriously, how good do you feel about the depth in the running back room?

The argument: As good as Emmett Johnson could be, there was nothing behind him to make you feel good at all. Not only would Kwinten Ives need to break through, but a former wide receiver in Isiah Mozee would also be asked to help at the position. And if those concerns were founded, would Johnson be able to carry even more of a load?

I was dubious.

The result: The next four running backs after Emmett Johnson – Mekhi Nelson, Isaiah Mozee, Kwinten Ives, and Kenneth Williams – have a combined 35 carries for 170 yards; 4.9 yards per carry. When you look at their performances vs. the two Power Four schools on Nebraska’s schedule, it gets even more dire. Against Cincinnati, Emmett Johnson accounted for 92.6% of the running back carries and 101.9%* of their rushing yards! Against Michigan, it was more of the same; he had 82.6% of the total running back carries.

*Nelson and Mozee combined for two carries for -2 yards. Not great!

Across the entirety of 2024, Dante Dowdell, Nebraska's lead running back, carried the ball on 41.9% of running back carries. Johnson, then Nebraska's second back, carried the ball on 34.3% of running back carries. Fast forward to 2025; even including games against Akron and Houston Christian, Johnson has taken 65.7% of all running back carries. Ives, the second leading back, has carried it 14.8% of the time. Johnson's share of carries is likely to go up in conference play, assuming they won't play in too many more blowouts like they did against Akron and Houston Christian.

Emmett Johnson is averaging over 100 yards per game from scrimmage. Can he keep it up all season long? | Kenny Larabee, KLIN

When you include catches out of the backfield, Johnson is averaging 116.0 yards from scrimmage per game, but it's taking 21.8 touches. Pretty much exactly what you hoped for in terms of yardage, but it's come on just 5.3 yards per touch.

Was it correct: I think you know the answer. To make matters worse, there’s no one coming to help Nebraska in this area. This is a problem Nebraska was unable to fix in the offseason and is unlikely to fix now. They can’t scheme their way out of it.

I think Johnson can have a nice season, but I don’t think this type of wear and tear will ultimately be sustainable with the toughest months of the season still to come.

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Reason to buy in: It’s time to start believing in special teams again

The argument: It was simple:

Mike Ekeler has been too good for too long, across multiple stops, and it will show in 2025.

By the time August rolled around, I had long moved past thinking special teams could be a net-neutral for Nebraska football in 2025. Why couldn’t they be a strength? Clearing the low bar of snapping and holding correctly again, I expected the punt, kick, return, and coverage units to all improve. I was all in on Archie Wilson being him* at punter, as well as on Jacory Barney being Nebraska's best punt returner in close to a decade.

*Have you ever said a punter was him? Me neither.

Nebraska punter Archie Wilson has been one of the biggest stories so far this season. | Kenny Larabee, KLIN

The result: Things are a whole lot better! Start with field position, admittedly a stat not entirely based on special teams, and you see a group that’s improved quite a bit. In 2024, their net field position* was -2.5 yards; 101st-best in the country. This season, it’s +7.3 yards; 18th-best.

*This stat is from bcftoys.com and is the difference between offensive starting field position and opponent offensive starting field position on non-garbage, regulation drives in FBS vs. FBS games.

Overall, Nebraska’s special teams ranked 86th overall in 2024. This year, they’re all the way up to 40th. Wilson at punter has been a revelation. He’s only averaging 43.0 yards per punt this season, but he pinned Cincinnati inside their own 20-yard line multiple times in the opener, and his average was close to 50 yards across four punts against Michigan.

The operation with PATs and field goals seems to have been fixed, and Kyle Cunanan is 22-of-22 after touchdowns in addition to 6-of-7 on field goals.

And Jacory Barney has nine punt returns for 111 yards, almost as many yards as the program had combined in 2023 and 2024.

Was it correct: Even with a couple of kickoffs out of bounds, there’s no argument that they're better. The way Ekeler has flipped this phase of Husker football over the course of one offseason is incredible, and if anything, it makes you more frustrated that all it took was actually trying a little bit to get this good.

Jacory Barney is putting together the best season by a Nebraska punt returner in years. | Kenny Larabee, KLIN

One thing I’m calling for over the course of the rest of the season? A true game changing play or two from the special teams unit. We’ll see a fake punt at some point in time, right? Or a muffed punt off one of Wilson’s punts. Or perhaps Barney (or someone else) will finally break a punt or kickoff for a touchdown.

In a season that’ll be filled with one-score affairs, Nebraska’s special teams is going to win a game for Matt Rhule.

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Reason to put down the Kool-Aid: Nebraska’s in-game management leaves a lot to be desired

The argument: You can’t tell the story of the Matt Rhule era at Nebraska without acknowledging his in-game decision-making. The hardest thing about getting better? It’s difficult to do:

Unlike with other spots on the roster, this isn’t something I can wish into existence. Nebraska did something to improve play calling. They did something to improve the wide receiver position. You can look up and down the roster and coaching staff and find those ways that they improved.

It’s a lot harder to do so with in-game management. If this is going to improve, it’ll probably be some combination of fewer one-score games, better on-field management by Dylan Raiola, and might involve a little bit of luck as well.

I added that I was dubious this would change.

Matt Rhule's in-game coaching has been a cause for concern throughout Rhule's first 2.5 seasons. | Kenny Larabee, KLIN

The result: Let’s start with the most divisive decision of the season so far; at the end of their first drive against Michigan, Matt Rhule opted to go for it on fourth down. Rather than take the field goal, he left his offense on the field.

They were stopped.

I had no issue with the decision, and I honestly could be convinced either side of the argument was right, but in that moment, the Rhule doubters immediately let their voices* be heard.

*I received an email immediately following the play. Within seconds of the play, a listener of my radio show said Rhule just made a big mistake and that Michigan would win.

Was it correct: Timeouts are still an issue at times, but to this point, in-game management doesn’t climb anywhere near the top of my concerns list. Now that I say that, watch it pop up a couple times in each of the next few games. But for now, things are a little bit better.

For now.

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Reason to buy in: The Groin Kick Era of Husker football is over

The argument: The win over Boston College, as strange and frustrating as it was, proved Nebraska could snatch victory out of the jaws of defeat after snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory. Got all that? I argued it this way:

Why can’t the Boston College performance – a fourth quarter that teetered and almost delivered one more groin kick for the road – be the thing that sends the program back in the right direction?

The result: A similar game played out in the opener against Cincinnati. Nebraska led by 10 points twice in the game, and there the Bearcats were at the end; with the football, in Nebraska territory, close to tying the game and forcing overtime, if not leaving victorious. While trailing by three points on their final drive, the Bearcats picked up a fourth-down conversion, a third-down conversion, and even gained ten yards after a holding penalty called on Malcolm Hartzog.

And then Hartzog picked off Brendan Sorsby with 34 seconds left, and Nebraska escaped with a victory.

Nebraska fans celebrate Malcolm Hartzog's game-saving interception against Cincinnati. | Kenny Larabee, KLIN

Nebraska would eventually lose to Michigan by three points, with the Groin Kick Formula placing this year’s 30-27 defeat in a tie for 70th, last place.

Was it correct: TBD! I came away impressed at Nebraska’s ability to not blow the game against Cincinnati. If anything, I’d like to see the offense get the ball in a tie game, or even trailing, and go down and get some points.

But things are trending in the right direction for Nebraska football. I think they believe in their ability to win those types of games.

Now they just have to prove they can.

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Reason to put down the Kool-Aid: I just need to see it before I believe it

The argument: Pretty much the exact opposite as the one above!

And so I ask, why is now the time to believe it’s going to happen? Because they’re due? Weren’t they due in any of the above seasons? Maybe this is a 9-3 or 10-2 team. Maybe the program is on the way up. I’d absolutely love to get to Black Friday at about 2:30 central, realizing how wrong I was for ever doubting this head coach and program to finally have the season fans have been waiting for around here for quite some time.

But before that happens, I won’t believe it’s possible until I see it with my own two eyes.

There was no metric I could apply to this. No stat to show my work. It was entirely vibes based.

The result: Well, they did get the win over Cincinnati, and then they beat two overmatched opponents 127-7. That was something we haven’t seen in recent years. Against Michigan, with a chance to pick up their biggest win in years, they... didn't.  

Was it correct: Again, TBD! “I need to see it before I believe it” could certainly be applied to beating a team like Michigan, but let’s get real; it was always about beating teams like Michigan State, Maryland, Minnesota, and Northwestern.

Wait, those are their next four opponents!

Put this on the board: The fourth and final reason to “put down the Kool-Aid” will get answered over the next month. If Nebraska is going to take a step forward and beat the teams they "should" beat, they will go 3-1 or 4-0 in October and enter November bowl eligible, something they haven't done since 2016.

Or they'll fall short, and we’ll wonder why 2025 looks like 2023 and 2024.

Can’t wait to find out.

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Agree or disagree, if you have a comment for Josh, send him an email: joshpeterson.huskermax@gmail.com.

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