North Dakota State vs. Michigan State Prediction, Odds, Prop Bet for NCAA Tournament 1st Round

January, February, Izzo.

Michigan State head coach, Tom Izzo, has once again led his Michigan State Spartans to the NCAA Tournament, and this time, they're in a great spot as a No. 3 seed. They'll open their tournament in the Round of 64 against North Dakota State from the Summit League.

Let's dive into the odds and my best bet for this No. 3 vs. No. 14 showdown.

North Dakota State vs. Michigan State Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

North Dakota State +15.5 (-105)
Michigan State -15.5 (-115)

Moneyline

North Dakota State +1100
Michigan State -2500

Total

OVER 143.5 (-110)
UNDER 143.5 (-110)

North Dakota State vs. Michigan State How to Watch

Date: Thursday, March 19
Game Time: 4:05 pm ET
Venue: KeyBank Center
How to Watch (TV): TNT
North Dakota State Record: 27-7
Michigan State Record: 25-7

North Dakota State vs. Michigan State Betting Trends

The UNDER is 4-1 in North Dakota State's last five games
North Dakota State has lost 10 straight games to Big Ten opponents
The OVER is 10-2 in Michigan State's last 12 games
Michigan State has won 10 straight games against Summit League opponents

North Dakota State vs. Michigan State Best Prop Bet

Jeremy Fears Jr., G 10+ assists (+106) via FanDuel

No player in the country records more assists per game than Jeremy Fears Jr., who averages 9.2 per game. Now, the Spartans will face a North Dakota State team that allowed 13.8 assists per game, which ranks 205th in the country. That's enough for me to beat on Fears to have a big game when it comes to dishing out assists.

North Dakota State vs. Michigan State Prediction and Pick

I think this game is going to be a lot closer than people think. The metrics between these two teams aren't far off. Michigan State ranks 81st in the country in effective field goal percentage, but North Dakota State is right behind them at 86th. The Spartans are also 43rd in defensive efficiency, but once again, the Bison are close behind them at 58th.

North Dakota State can also shut down one of Michigan State's biggest strengths, their offensive rebounding, as the Bison rank 17th in defensive rebounding rate

Obviously, there's more context to these metrics, as Michigan State played against a far tougher list of opponents coming from the Big Ten, but there's enough there for me to trust the Bison to cover this big number.

Pick: North Dakota State +15.5 (-105)

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