Three reasons why Nebraska will win; three reasons why Nebraska will lose vs. Illinois

Does any team in America need a win more than the slumping Huskers? Here’s how the Huskers can defeat the Illini

Nebraska Cornhuskers head coach Matt Rhule and Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Bret Bielema talk before a game at Memorial Stadium. Credit: Dylan Widger- | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

After an exhaustive, in-depth search, but we found a college football team in America that desperately needs a victory as much as anyone. That would be those scuffling Nebraska Cornhuskers.

After three consecutive losses in which they held fourth-quarter leads, the Huskers have become one of the most criticized teams in America. National radio broadcasters lament what has happened to the Huskers this season.

And they can’t figure out why.

Who can figure it out? It’s probably unprecedented that a team can blow three consecutive fourth-quarter leads on the way to three losses.

Nebraska, which realistically is maybe a half-dozen timely plays away from an 8-0 record, is catching strays for its inability to hold late leads. But football doesn't work that way. Performance at the most crucial time was lacking. Each collapse is more painful than the last for the program and fan base.

The latest implosion was at home to Washington, 17-10, when the Huskies scored two touchdowns in the last 90 seconds.

The Huskers are back at it Friday night against Illinois (7 o’clock CT, FOX) at Gies Memorial Stadium in Champaign. Illinois has won three consecutive games — defeating Michigan State, Oregon and Maryland — to get its season that was slipping away now straightened out.

Nebraska is 5-3, 2-3 in the Big Ten. Illinois is 5-3, 3-2. The winner will be bowl eligible, which is great but a big letdown from what each expected back in August.

FanDuel has installed Nebraska as an 4.5-point favorite.

Each week, we’ll give you three reasons why the Huskers will win and three reasons why the Huskers will lose. We’ll give you reasons even if the odds seem insurmountable either way.

Nebraska is ranked 42 in The Athletic 138; Illinois is ranked 60.

Why Nebraska will win

Getting the lead … and holding it

Nebraska’s fourth-quarter problems are well known. The Huskers need to score early to help mute the crowd. That always helps, but it’s even more crucial for a Friday night game before a national audience. Don’t let the Illini get cranked up.

Taking an overwhelming lead going into the fourth quarter would help, too, but that’s the game plan for most teams.

It’s just more important for the Huskers. Get on the scoreboard and stay there. Get ahead and stay ahead, right?

Nebraska offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen and head coach Matt Rhule are trying to get the Huskers back on the right track. | Kenny Larabee, KLIN

“Doing too much is killing us,” Huskers coach Matt Rhule said at his Monday news conference.

“That’s really my message to them: You get to these moments, and the water is rocky, the ocean is rocky. Steady in the boat, man. Don’t take a rocking boat and rocking sea and rock it even more.

“You can’t control what’s outside the boat, but your focus should just be on being steady on the boat, going back to work this week.”

Anchors aweigh, then.

Nebraska defensive back Danny Odem III tackles Washington wide receiver Jordan Clay during the third quarter at Memorial Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Huskers’ defense

Nebraska’s defense continues its statistically impressive season. In the three losses, the Huskers have allowed 54 points (18 per game). Impressive, right? But in the fourth quarter, the Huskers have allowed 39 points, an average of 13 points per game.

Folks, that’s the encapsulation of the Huskers’ season right there — the fourth-quarter messes.

Maybe the Huskers’ secret to winning this week is stopping the fourth-quarter messes.

The Huskers’ offense

In its three losses, Nebraska has averaged 13.6 points per game. That’s not enough scoring, no matter how well the defense plays — at least in the first three quarters.

Offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen is known for his offensive guru-ness.

Nebraska quarterback Anthony Colandrea runs for a touchdown against Indiana in the fourth quarter that gave the Huskers a 17-6 lead. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

It’s time for that. Check the calendar — it’s November and there are only four regular-season games remaining. Nebraska still can have a notable season, with Illinois, Rutgers, Ohio State and Iowa on the schedule.

But, man, the turnaround better start soon.

Why Illinois will win

The Friday night thing

When you’re basically the only game on the schedule, there is more motivation to perform. With a home crowd behind the Illini, expect them to cause trouble for the reeling Huskers.

Illinois is 3-2 at home. Nebraska is 1-1 on the road.

Should Illinois take a lead, look out.

Katin Houser

Illinois’ talented quarterback returned sooner than expected from a broken hand. Houser, who had surgery, played Saturday against Maryland after being injured against Michigan State on Oct. 10. The Illini struggled before a fourth-quarter rally pulled out a 20-17 win in College Park.

With another week of healing, Houser should be good to go. The senior has completed 140-of-216 passes (64.8 percent) for 1,663 yards, 13 touchdowns and five interceptions.

Motivation

With a win, Illinois will be bowl eligible for the third consecutive year, the first time that has happened since 1988-1992.

Illinois’ remaining schedule is not easy — at undefeated UCLA, home to Iowa and at Northwestern. Beating Nebraska might be the Illini’s best hope for a bowl game.

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